Week 4 of the college football season is in the books, and we’re starting to see some top players separate themselves from the pack, and we’re also seeing some guys who were expected to be stars not live up to the hype. This, of course, impacts not only key awards races like for the Heisman Trophy, but also the upcoming NFL Draft and the race to be the No. 1 overall pick. With Week 4 wrapped up, we’re diving into NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, which bettors can wager on at top sportsbooks with futures bets.
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and of the 13 players with +4000 or shorter odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to go No. 1 overall, 10 are signal-callers.
No. 1 pick odds for 2026 NFL Draft
Current No. 1 overall pick odds at FanDuel (as of Monday, Sept. 22):
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier +320 (was +300)
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers +320 (+470)
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza +700 (+1100)
Oklahoma QB John Mateer +1100
Penn State QB Drew Allar +1300 (+700)
Miami QB Carson Beck +1500 (+1200)
Miami DE Rueben Bain Jr. +2000 (+2500)
USC QB Jayden Maiava +2500
Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt +2500
Texas QB Arch Manning +2500 (+1500)
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik +2500 (+1100)
Clemson DT Peter Woods +3300 (+2500)
Clemson DE T.J. Parker +4000 (+3300)
The two favorites
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, +320
The Tigers are a perfect 4-0 to start the year, and while some of their wins look less impressive with added hindsight, all LSU can do is take care of business. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, the son of New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns in LSU’s Week 4 win over Southeastern Louisiana. He now has 962 yards and six touchdowns to two interceptions on the year on a 68.6% completion rate. He’s remained at the top of the odds board for the last few weeks.
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers, +320
Dynamic South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers had his best game of 2025 against Missouri, but it wasn’t enough as the Gamecocks fell 29-20. Sellers threw for 302 yards and two scores, though the Tigers limited his running ability as he had 10 rushes for -28 yards. Sellers missed most of Week 3 with a concussion in a loss to Vanderbilt so it was good to see him play this week in general, but also put together his best passing performance of the year. His odds to go first overall went from +470 to +320.
Biggest risers
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, +700
No quarterback has gotten off to a better start in 2025 than Mendoza, who has the Hoosiers at 4-0 after a 63-10 dismantling of No. 9 Illinois on Saturday, Mendoza was 21-of-23 for 267 yards and five touchdowns, and he now has 975 yards and 14 passing touchdowns on the year. His +700 odds at FanDuel are the third-shortest in the field, and it’s a dip from the +1100 he was listed at last week.
Miami DE Rueben Bain Jr. +2000
Bain Jr. entered 2025 as one of the top defenders in the country, and he’s certainly played that way so far with two sacks and four tackles through loss through the Hurricanes’ 4-0 start. He was also credited with a whopping 10 pressures against Florida on Saturday. If a quarterback doesn’t go No. 1 overall, edge rusher is usually another position to keep an eye on, and it looks like Bain is rising to the top of that group. He was +2500 to go No. 1 overall last week and now sits at +2000 at FanDuel.
USC QB Jayden Maiava +2500
This is the first time USC’s Jayden Maiava has cracked this list as he’s now +2500 to go No. 1 overall, the first time he’s had odds shorter than +4000 at FanDuel. Maiava completed 20 of 26 passes for three touchdowns and rushed for two more scores in USC’s 45-31 win over Michigan State in Week 4. Maiava has 989 passing yards and 13 total touchdowns this season, and he would be the fourth Lincoln Riley-coached quarterback to go No. 1 overall, joining Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams.
Biggest slides
Penn State QB Drew Allar, +1300
Penn State and Drew Allar were idle this past weekend ahead of the Nittany Lions’ massive tilt against Oregon in one of the top games of Week 5. Allar and Penn State are looking for revenge over the Ducks after losing to Oregon in the Big Ten title game a year ago, and the Nittany Lions are also trying to take a big step forward and win big games this year, something the program has severely lacked under head coach James Franklin. Allar has Penn State off to a 3-0 start, but he has just 626 yards and four passing touchdowns to begin the year.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, +2500
What a disastrous start to 2025 for Clemson and Cade Klubnik. The Tigers made the College Football Playoff last year, and Klubnik was excellent in 2024 with 36 touchdown passes. But Clemson is now 1-3 after losing consecutive games to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, and the Tigers’ CFP aspirations are basically dead in the water. Klubnik has been less than impressive, throwing for 996 yards and six touchdowns to four interceptions, and he has also had issues with fumbles. Klubnik was seen as a frontrunner for the Heisman and to go No. 1 overall, but those don’t appear to be in the cards for the Clemson signal-caller. His odds to go first overall are now +2500 after sitting at +1100 a week ago.
Texas QB Arch Manning, +2500