Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s political standing is showing signs of strain, with new polling indicating both slipping approval ratings and growing voter appetite for a fresh face in 2026.
A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll finds voters evenly divided on Walz’s performance, with 47 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving of his job as governor.
That marks a steep drop from just three months ago, when his net approval stood at +19 points. Walz had enjoyed net positive approval in each of 18 previous KSTP/SurveyUSA polls.
The survey also points to uncertainty about Walz’s political future. Asked whether he should seek a third term, 43 percent of respondents said they would prefer a different Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate, compared to 42 percent who believe he should run again.
Newsweek has contacted Walz’s office for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Minnesota has been a Democratic stronghold in statewide races for decades, but slipping approval ratings for Walz could open the door for Republicans in 2026.
If Walz’s vulnerabilities deepen, the GOP may see one of its best chances in years to flip the governor’s office in a state Democrats have long relied on.
The race could also serve as a broader test of Democratic messaging in the Midwest, especially on issues such as crime, the economy, and education, which are increasingly shaping voter perceptions.
What To Know
Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier called the numbers a warning sign. “You can particularly see this in the survey where he is notably weak among political independents and also in his old home base of southern Minnesota,” Schier told KSTP. “Those are real problem areas for him.”
Walz has just 24 percent support in southern Minnesota and 41 percent among independent voters across the state.
Schier also noted uncertainty about Walz’s potential third term. “Voters are split pretty evenly on whether he should run for a third term,” he said. “A small plurality don’t want him to run for a third term, which means he’s got some convincing to do with a lot of Minnesotans that a third term is in their interest.”
The poll also examined head-to-head matchups between Walz and four prospective Republican challengers: former state senator Jensen, state representative Kristin Robbins, teacher Phillip Parrish, and healthcare technology executive Kendall Qualls.
Walz leads in each scenario, though he reaches a majority only against Qualls. Across these matchups, undecided voters consistently make up at least 12 percent of the electorate.
However, Schier cautions that opinions about these potential challengers are still forming. “You have to keep in mind voters don’t have really much of an idea at all about who his opponents might be or will be, and therefore their opinion is very loosely formed at this point and could alter quite a bit,” he said.
So far, Walz is the only Democrat to have declared his intention to run in 2026.
On the Republican side, Jensen, Robbins, Parrish, and Qualls have all declared, as well as former St. Cloud city councilor Jeff Johnson and retired mixed martial arts fighter Brad Kohler.
MyPillow founder and MAGA conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell has also teased running as a GOP candidate, but has not yet said whether he actually will. “I live here in Minnesota,” Lindell said of his potential opponent. “Everywhere I go, no one wants Tim Walz. They don’t.”
He previously considered a run for the governorship in 2022—at Trump’s urging—he said. Lindell also weighed a run in 2018.
What Happens Next
The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3.