US stocks were bid on Friday with SPX hitting fresh record highs while the majority of sectors were green. Upside was led in Tech with the heavy cap stocks outperforming, leading to NDX outperformance, while the Russell pared from its prior day rally.
Fed Governor Miran, asked why he dissented, said in his view he does not see material inflation from tariffs, according to CNBC. He said he will give a full detailed review of his views on Monday.
On Friday, US Senate rejected a short-term funding bill to keep the federal government funded on a short-term basis, as expected. Lawmakers now face a deadline of September 30th to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown.
On September 19th, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes. On September 21st, Germany’s air force said it sent two fighter jets to track a Russian plane flying over the Baltic Sea, according to Sky News.
Looking ahead, highlights include PBoC LPR, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Sep), Canadian Producer Prices (Aug), RBA’s Bullock; BoE’s Pill, Bailey; Fed’s Williams, Musalem, Barkin, Hammack; BoC’s Kozicki, supply from the EU.
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US TRADE
US stocks were bid on Friday with SPX hitting fresh record highs while the majority of sectors were green. Upside was led in Tech with the heavy cap stocks outperforming, leading to NDX outperformance, while the Russell pared from its prior day rally.
SPX +0.49% at 6,664, NDX +0.70% at 24,626, DJI +0.37% at 46,315, RUT -0.77% at 2,449
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed Governor Miran, asked why he dissented, said in his view he does not see material inflation from tariffs, according to CNBC. He said he will give a full detailed review of his views on Monday, noting that usually dissenters release a speech on Friday, and that there will soon be more context and rigour around his arguments. He confirmed he was the bottom dot in 2025 and was the only support for a 50bps cut at the meeting, adding he hopes to persuade others on the Fed to support aggressive rate cuts. He thinks the economy should have an interest rate not too far from neutral now, and that the implications for monetary policy are not very big.
Fed Governor Miran on Friday said disinflationary forces are in the works, including lower immigration, via Fox Business. He reiterated he doesn’t see material inflation from tariffs. Monetary policy is pretty restrictive, and he warned the longer it stays restrictive, the bigger the risk. He said comparing goods inflation this year to pre-pandemic trends is the wrong comparison. He reiterated he will be trying to convince other Fed policymakers to cut rates faster. He said “we are in an easing cycle”. He noted that people have been moving in the direction of thinking tariff inflation is less than previously thought, and added that folks will eventually come around to the view that tariffs will not drive up inflation.
Fed’s Daly (2027 Voter) on Friday said the job market has softened quite a bit over the last year, noting part of this is due to the economic outlook. She said it is challenging to discern how much of the job market is slowing due to AI, and added that the rate cut this week was an effort to support the labour market, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Kashkari (2026 Voter) supported the rate cut this week, saying the risk of a sharp increase in unemployment warrants some Fed action. He noted it is hard to see inflation climbing much higher than 3% from tariffs. He added that if the labour market proves resilient or inflation rises, the Fed should pause and hold the policy rate, while stressing they can always cut rates more quickly if the labour market weakens more than expected. Kashkari said he is open to raising the policy rate if economic conditions warrant, sees two more quarter-point rate cuts this year as appropriate, and estimated the neutral rate has likely risen to 3.1%, meaning Fed policy has not been as tight as previously thought, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Kashkari (2026 Voter) said he does not see erosion in Fed credibility to hit the inflation target, stressing the Fed is not okay with 3% inflation and is confident it can return it to 2%. He added it is possible that cutting short-term rates will not translate to lower long-term rates, reiterated his view that the neutral rate may have risen, and said he is not sure how many more cuts would be needed to get to neutral, according to Reuters.
Fed Chair Candidate Bullard said 75bps of cuts by year-end would be significant, calling the Fed’s decision a good one that looks like a sequence of three cuts into year-end. He added the neutral rate is still fairly low, maybe around 3.25% compared to the Fed’s median projection of 3.0%, according to Reuters.
Former White House Advisor Steve Bannon thinks Scott Bessent should serve as both US Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair on an interim basis through the midterms; a White House official said the administration is not considering that, according to CNBC.
US Supreme Court has sought a response from Fed’s Cook by Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
US President Trump said he will deliver a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, according to a Fox News interview.
On Friday, US Senate rejected a short-term funding bill to keep the federal government funded on a short-term basis, as expected. Lawmakers now face a deadline of September 30th to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. Members of the Senate are not scheduled to return to Washington until September 29th, and House lawmakers are not due to return until October 7th, according to NBC.
Senate Minority Leader Schumer said he is ready to meet “anytime” with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, according to a CNN interview.
US President Trump invoked a ‘golden share’ to block US Steel’s plans for an Illinois plant, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick told the company’s CEO the administration would not allow Granite City production to cease, according to WSJ.
Trump administration is set to link acetaminophen to autism risk, according to WaPo.
NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES
Oracle (ORCL) is said to be in talks with Meta (META) on USD 20bln AI cloud computing deal, according to Bloomberg.
Apple (AAPL) is reportedly rushing to boost production of the cheaper iPhone 17, increasing standard model production by 30–40%. Consumers are favouring the USD 799 iPhone 17 over the pricier Pro models, with the standard iPhone 17’s value and China factors driving strong demand, according to The Information.
US President Trump is reportedly considering a website to help shop for cheaper drugs, according to Bloomberg.
Elon Musk denied xAI is raising USD 10bln at a USD 200bln valuation, saying it is fake news and that xAI is not raising any capital right now, according to Reuters.
The Fed will meet next month with Blackstone (BX), Robinhood (HOOD) CEOs, and Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss challenges affecting community banks, according to Bloomberg.
Rupert Murdoch reportedly privately told executives working on the TikTok deal that he wanted to own a small stake in the company if an agreement could be reached, and any investment in the TikTok-US deal would come through Fox Corp, according to WSJ sources.
TRADE/TARIFFS
US House lawmakers made a rare visit to China on Sunday in an effort to stabilize ties, according to Nikkei. “The visit on Sunday was the first House of Representatives delegation to visit China since 2019”.
US President Trump reportedly withheld approval of over USD 400mln in military aid to Taiwan this summer while seeking a trade deal and possible summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to Washington Post sources.
South Korean President Lee said South Korea will face a financial crisis if it agrees to US demands on USD 350bln investments, according to comments made to Reuters; South Korean and US are at odds over the investment. South Korean President Lee aims to resolve US-South Korea tariff issues as soon as possible. Hyundai US plant raid will not damage the alliance with the US.
US President Trump said on Truth that he had just completed a very productive call with President Xi of China, noting they made progress on many important issues including trade, fentanyl, the need to bring the war between Russia and Ukraine to an end, and the approval of the TikTok deal. He added that he agreed with President Xi they would meet at the APEC Summit in South Korea, that he would go to China in the early part of next year, and that President Xi would likewise come to the United States at an appropriate time. Trump said the call was a very good one, that they will be speaking again by phone, and that he appreciated the TikTok approval as both look forward to meeting at APEC, according to Truth.
Chinese President Xi said talks were positive and constructive, noting that China-US relations are very important and that China’s position on TikTok is clear. He said the Chinese government respects the wishes of firms and told US President Trump the US should refrain from imposing unilateral trade restrictions. Xi added that he hopes the US will provide an open and fair environment for Chinese firms and prevent unilateral pressures, stressing that the US should not impact the outcomes of trade talks. He also said China will not forget US support in WW2, via Xinhua.
China’s Commerce Ministry said its position on the TikTok issue is clear, adding that the government respects the will of enterprises and welcomes companies to conduct business negotiations based on market rules. The ministry said it hopes the US will work together with China to earnestly fulfil its commitments, and provide an open, fair, just, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies, including TikTok, to continue operating in the US. It added that China hopes the US will work with it to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations, according to Reuters.
Bytedance said they thank China President Xi and US President Trump for their efforts to preserve TikTok in the US, adding they will work in accordance with applicable laws to ensure TikTok remains available to American users through TikTok US, according to X.
US President Trump is set to add a new USD 100k fee for H-1B visas in the latest crackdown, according to Bloomberg.
US President Trump said that in some cases companies are going to pay a lot of money for H-1B visas. An administration aide said Trump will sign a proclamation to raise the visa fee to USD 100,000. Commerce Secretary Lutnick added that if companies are going to train someone, they should train Americans, noting that all the big companies are on board and that firms will pay USD 100,000 per year for H-1B visas, according to Reuters.
The Indian Foreign Ministry said India and the US have decided to intensify efforts to reach a mutually beneficial trade deal, according to Reuters.
EU is set to block big tech companies from a new financial data sharing system, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
Canadian Retail Sales MM (Jul) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 1.5%, Rev. 1.6%)
Canadian Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM (Jul) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 1.9%, Rev. 2.2%)
FX
DXY finished the week flat with strength post-FOMC offsetting earlier weakness in the week.
USD/JPY was little changed after a hawkish split BoJ decision. The central bank kept rates unchanged, as widely expected, though two members, Takata and Tamura, advocated for a 25bps hike.
G10 FX price action was skewed to the downside. CAD was the relative outperformer, gaining modestly, despite Retail Sales Ex-autos falling more than expected in July, albeit the prior print was revised up (headline M/M fell 0.8% as expected).
GBP underperformed vs USD following larger-than-expected borrowing figures. UK PSNB Ex Banks rose to GBP 17.962bln in August, considerably larger than the expected GBP 12.75bln (prev. 1.054bln, rev. 2.818bln).
Argentina Central Bank on Friday said it sold USD 678mln in the wholesale market; it sold USD 1.11bln in the last three days to curb ARS weakness, according to Reuters.
FIXED INCOME
T-notes were lower on Friday and settling a whole point lower from the peak seen in the initial post-FOMC spike as participants digested Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference and the strong economic data seen on Thursday.
COMMODITIES
The crude complex finished the last trading session of the week in the red, as the downside from Trump’s remarks continued, as well the firmer Dollar.
NHC said a new tropical storm has formed south of Mexico, which is expected to remain offshore and intensify, according to Reuters.
EU is reportedly considering a provision in the 19th sanctions package against Russia to phase out Russian LNG purchases a year earlier than currently planned, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
The Democratic Republic of Congo is considering extending its cobalt export ban for at least two months, according to Reuters citing sources.
CPC crude oil exports from the Black Sea remain steady at 1.6mln BPD in October compared to September levels, according to Reuters citing sources.
Turkey is planning to sign new energy deals with the US as early as next week, according to Bloomberg.
Iraq is nearing a deal to restart pipeline oil exports from Kurdistan to Turkey, according to Reuters citing sources.
The Iraqi Petroleum Marketing Authority said it has increased its oil exports after a gradual end to voluntary production cuts within the framework of the OPEC Plus deal, according to Iran International.
Chilean state copper miner Codelco said its biggest mine will take longer to return to full production following a deadly tunnel collapse in July, according to El Mercurio.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin prices were rangebound over the weekend and held a USD 15k handle.
The UK’s FCA has sped up crypto approvals, cutting processing times by two-thirds and raising acceptance rates, amid criticism it was too slow, according to the Financial Times.
GEOPOLITICS
NATO-RUSSIA
On September 21st, Germany’s air force said it sent two fighter jets to track a Russian plane flying over the Baltic Sea, according to Sky News.
On September 19th, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes.
NATO said the North Atlantic Council (NAC) will convene early this week to discuss the Russian violation of Estonian airspace, according to Reuters.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will meet on Monday at Estonia’s request to discuss the violation of the Baltic country’s airspace by Russian fighter jets on Friday, according to a statement.
Estonian PM has decided to request NATO Article 4 consultations over Russian jets entering its airspace, according to X.
US President Trump said the US will help defend Poland if Russia continues escalating, according to a Fox Interview. Trump, when asked about Russian jets in Estonia, said “we don’t like it”.
German Foreign Minister said the violation of Estonian airspace by Russia is unacceptable, adding that by intercepting Russian planes immediately, they are showing NATO is always ready to defend itself, according to Reuters.
EU’s Costa said EU leaders will address a “collective response” to Russian violations of airspace at a meeting on October 1st, according to X.
British Defense Minister said Typhoon aircraft carried out their first air defense missions over Poland, according to a statement on Sunday.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian fighters did not violate Estonian airspace, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will present a strategy for “guided” weapons exports in two weeks, identifying the US, European, and other countries as potential buyers of Ukrainian weapons, while stressing that reliable controls should be put in place, according to Reuters.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy they closer to finalising the 19th sanctions package and he expects its approval soon. He added that Ukraine will quickly synchronise the package domestically and expressed gratitude that many of Ukraine’s proposals were taken into account in the EU sanctions package. Zelenskiy also said he now expects strong sanctions steps from the United States on Russia, according to his X post.
European Commission President von der Leyen, on the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, said the EU is banning imports of Russian LNG into European markets. To strengthen enforcement, she said the EU is sanctioning 118 additional vessels from the shadow fleet, bringing the total to more than 560 vessels now listed under EU sanctions. She added that major energy trading companies Rosneft and Gazpromneft will now be on a full transaction ban, according to the EU.
US President Trump urged Europe to “stop buying oil” from Russia ahead of new US economic pressure on Moscow, adding that the US won’t let Europeans buy Russian oil much longer, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Defence Ministry said a Ukrainian drone attack on a resort area in the Crimea peninsula killed two people and injured 15, according to Reuters.
A Ukrainian SBU official said Ukrainian drones hit oil pumping stations involved in Russian oil exports via the Novorossiysk port, according to Reuters.
MIDDLE EAST
The US is planning USD 6bln in new arms sales to Israel, including a USD 3.8bln deal for 30 AH-64 Apache helicopters that would almost double Israel’s current fleet, and a USD 1.9bln deal for 3,250 infantry assault vehicles for the Israeli army, according to the WSJ.
The UN Security Council has decided not to permanently lift sanctions on Iran, according to Reuters.
Israeli media reported that the Israeli army is preparing for the possibility of an escalation of the conflict in the West Bank, according to Iran International.
UK, Canada and Australia recognised Palestine as an independent state, according to the FT.
Israel “categorically rejects” the UK and other countries’ unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, according to the Foreign Ministry.
Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister said a two-state solution is possible, according to Iran International.
Israeli military said it killed a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon, adding that as a result of the attack a number of citizens were killed. The military said it regrets any harm to civilians and is working as much as possible to minimise harm to them, according to Reuters.
US President Trump plans to meet with Arab leaders on Tuesday to discuss the Gaza war, according to Axios.
OTHERS
US President Trump will host Turkish President Erdogan on Sept. 25th at the White House, working on many trade and military deals including a large-scale purchase of Boeing (BA) aircraft, a major F-16 deal (LMT), and a continuation of F-35 talks (LMT), according to Truth Social.
South Korean President Lee said South Korea does not believe any concrete discussions are happening between the US and North Korea. Russia-North Korea military cooperation is a significant threat to South Korea and must be addressed with dialogue. He adds that dialogue with North Korea will likely be difficult for the time being. South Korea risks being on the frontier of conflict and must find peaceful coexistence with North Korea, Russia, and China.
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said the concept of denuclearisation for the country is no longer valid, via KCNA, adding that North Korea will never give up its nuclear force. He added they will never sit down with South Korea, and that he still has good memories of US President Trump.
US President Trump said that on his orders, the Secretary of War authorised a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility. He said intelligence confirmed the vessel was trafficking illicit narcotics, and the strike killed three males. Trump added that no US forces were harmed and that the vessel was in international waters, according to Reuters.
Multiple European airports have said they have been impacted by a suspected cyber attack, according to Sky News.
US President Trump said that if Afghanistan does not give the Bagram airbase back to the US, bad things are going to happen, according to Reuters.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
PBoC Governor and the Finance and Securities regulator will hold a press conference on Monday, though details remain light, according to Reuters.
RBI is expected to recommend keeping its existing inflation target for a third straight time, according to Reuters citing sources.
Indian PM Modi said he will accelerate the country’s growth story with GST reforms, according to a his national address.
Japanese PM contender Koizumi said it is important for the government and the BOJ to move in lockstep in achieving price stability and economic growth, according to Reuters.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Centeno said he still sees inflation risks to the downside, adding the ECB cannot tolerate inflation below 2% for too long and that the 2028 inflation forecast is likely to be below 2%, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Kazaks said there will be plenty of data available at the December meeting, adding that the central bank has achieved its 2 percent goal and there is no need to hurry the next interest-rate shift, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Muller said ECB rates are mildly supportive with no need for a further cut, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Simkus said a December rate cut is needed to safely reach 2% inflation, according to Bloomberg.
UBS Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley & BofA no longer expect a BoE rate cut this year, according to Reuters.
European Commission President von der Leyen said she isn’t considering running in Germany’s 2027 presidential election, according to a newspaper interview published on Sunday.
DATA RECAP
UK Retail Sales MM (Aug) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.5%); Ex-Fuel MM (Aug) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.4%)
UK Retail Sales YY (Aug) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.1%, Rev. 0.8%); Ex-Fuel YY (Aug) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.3%, Rev. 1.0%)
UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Aug) 17.962B GB vs. Exp. 12.75B GB (Prev. 1.054B GB, Rev. 2.818B GB)
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -19.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -17.0)
German Producer Prices YY (Aug) -2.2% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -1.5%); MM (Aug) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
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