Given that the Green Bay Packers are coming off back-to-back two-score victories over postseason teams from last season and are playing the struggling Cleveland Browns on Sunday, it’s no surprise that SportsLine’s proven computer model is projecting a Packers victory. However, the amount of points the model projects the Packers to win by is double what some sportsbooks have the spread listed as, with the model projecting value in backing the Packers on the alternative line at -14.5, which can be played at +210 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The model has Packers -14.5 as one of its top Week 3 NFL longshot bets for those looking for a larger payday when online sports betting. The model also sees value in the Titans vs. Colts blowing past their over/under of 43.5 points on Sunday, with an alternative total points line to return a nice payday, along with Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen to score an anytime touchdown at +600 odds at FanDuel for Week 3 NFL prop bets. Thielen and the Vikings take on the Cincinnati Bengals at 1 p.m. ET, and Thielen’s over/under for total receiving yards is 25.5.
SportsLine’s model can help you find value to add to your Week 3 NFL picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest BetMGM bonus code, where new users receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
SportsLine’s computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks. The model is on a 33-17 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Week 3 NFL longshot picks:
Packers -14.5 alternative spread vs. Browns (+215)
Colts vs. Titans Over 51.5 alternative total points (+260)
Adam Thielen, Vikings, anytime touchdown (+600)
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Packers -14.5 alternative spread vs. Browns (+215)
The Packers opened the season with a 27-13 victory over the Lions, followed by a 27-18 win over the Commanders, and to NFL fans watching those games, it rarely felt like the contests were as close as those two-score finals indicate. The Packers have the No. 4 scoring defense (15.5 points per game allowed) and are surrendering the third-fewest total yards (238 per game) despite playing against two postseason teams who ranked in the top five in yards per game last season. The Packers have arguably the best defense in the NFL heading into a matchup against the Browns, who lost 41-17 to the Ravens last week.
The SportsLine model projects the Packers to win by 15 points, which creates strong value in playing them at greater than 2-1 odds to cover a 14.5-point spread. You can make this play at +215 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.
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Colts vs. Titans Over 51.5 alternative total points (+260)
The Indianapolis offense has been the biggest surprise through two weeks of the 2025 NFL season, with Daniel Jones going from unwanted in New York to orchestrating the No. 4 scoring offense in the league. The Colts are 2-0 behind a 33-8 victory over the Dolphins in Week 1 and a 29-28 win over the Broncos last week. Many consider Denver’s defense the best in the league, yet Jones threw for 316 yards and a touchdown while Jonathan Taylor rushed for 165 yards against the Broncos. The Colts are second in the league in yards (445.2 per game). Their defense hasn’t been stellar though, ranking 20th in yards per play (5.4), and the Titans offense has been competent enough to average 15.5 ppg over Cam Ward’s first two NFL starts. The Titans went from 12 points in Week 1 to 19 in Week 2, showcasing improvement as the No.1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft becomes more comfortable with the new system.
The over/under at FanDuel is listed at 43.5 for Titans vs. Colts, and the model sees strong value in backing that. However, if you want the chance at an even larger payday, the model projects 52 total points scored in this contest, and you can play Over 51.5 points on the alternative total points line at +260 odds at FanDuel.
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Adam Thielen, Vikings, anytime touchdown (+600)
The Vikings are about to undergo another significant quarterback change, with Carson Wentz slated to start on Sunday with J.J. McCarthy (ankle) out. Wentz didn’t sign with the Vikings until August 24, and three days later, Minnesota traded for Thielen, so the veteran receiver has had basically just as long as every other receiver to form chemistry with Wentz. Thielen’s snap percentage went from 57% in Week 1 to 81% in Week 2, so he could continue to be more involved this weekend. The Vikings play the Bengals, and Cincinnati allowed three passing touchdowns to the Jaguars last weekend.
The model projects 0.36 touchdowns for Thielen on Sunday, while his +600 odds would create a projection of 0.14 touchdowns, which creates strong value for Thielen at this price to score against the Bengals. FanDuel is offering the best odds on Thielen for an anytime touchdown at +600, while other sportsbooks have Thielen in the +450 range, making this the place to make this wager.
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Want more Week 3 NFL picks?
You’ve seen the model’s NFL longshot picks for Week 3. Now, get NFL Week 3 projections for every NFL spread, total and player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see the model’s best bets for every Week 3 NFL game, including Rams vs. Eagles, Steelers vs. Patriots and Broncos vs. Chargers. Finally, SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman, who is 7-2 (+488) over his last nine NFL picks, has locked in his top Week 3 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.