An Indiana vs. Vegas semifinal! Be honest, most of us didn’t see this one coming. Yet here we are! And if you rewind just a bit, you’ll remember the last time the Fever and Aces clashed. That game felt huge for Indiana as it was hyped as a potential tiebreaker with both teams sitting side by side in the standings, the Fever at 6th and Vegas at 7th. One win could have been the difference between sneaking into the playoffs or missing out altogether.
But, well, Vegas didn’t just sneak in; they went on a historic run after that and stormed all the way to the No. 2 seed. And that right there tells you everything about how unpredictable Round 2 is about to be.
ADVERTISEMENT
Article continues below this ad
How we got here: Series context & season recap
The Las Vegas Aces roll into the 2025 WNBA semifinals as the No. 2 seed with a 30-14 regular-season record, capped by a franchise-best 16-game winning streak (17 if you count their Round 1 opener). That historic run pushed them from mid-pack to elite. And to get here, they had to grind past the Seattle Storm 2-1, surviving a 74-73 nail-biter in Game 3 where A’ja Wilson poured in 38 to save the day.
On the other side, the Indiana Fever are living their Cinderella story. As the No. 6 seed (24-20), they’ve fought through a season riddled with setbacks (five season-ending injuries plus Damiris Dantas missing the postseason). Still, they stunned the No. 3 Atlanta Dream 2-1, sealing it with an 87-85 Game 3 upset on Sept. 18. That win was Indiana’s first playoff series victory since 2015.
ADVERTISEMENT
Article continues below this ad
Now, the stage is set. The Aces are chasing redemption after last year’s semis exit, while the Fever are chasing their first Finals appearance in a decade.
Catch the action:
Sunday, Sept. 21: at Las Vegas, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
Tuesday, Sept. 23: at Las Vegas, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Friday, Sept. 26: at Indiana, time TBD, ESPN2
Sunday, Sept. 28: at Indiana, 3 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)
Tuesday, Sept. 30: at Las Vegas, time/TV TBD (if necessary)
Season series recap
The Fever actually holds the edge here, taking it 2-1. Home teams won all three games, each by double digits. Vegas took the June 22 matchup 89-81 behind Wilson’s 24. But Indiana answered at home with an 81-54 rout on July 3 (Mitchell dropped 25, Vegas shot just 26%), then an 80-70 win on July 24 behind Mitchell’s 21 and double-doubles from Boston and Howard.
Still, Becky Hammon isn’t worried. “They haven’t seen the real Aces yet. They caught us when we were in turmoil. We’ll buckle in, hone in where we can, and take care of business,” she said.
Playoff history
This is brand new. The Fever and Aces (even tracing back to their Utah/SA days) have never met in the postseason.
How they match up: Strengths & weaknesses
During the regular season, Indiana actually finished third in offensive rating and seventh in defense, while Vegas sat at fourth in offense and eighth in defense. But after the first round of the playoffs, the numbers flipped a bit. The Aces jumped to second in offensive rating, the Fever slid in at fourth. And defensively, it’s Indiana shining, second-best in the postseason. Sure, Vegas has the co-DPOY in A’ja Wilson, but as a team, Vegas is sitting back at sixth (out of 8 playoff teams).
The Aces’ late-season surge pushed them up to fifth in net rating, right behind the Fever, and they’ve been doing it by turning up the tempo. They’re playing at one of the league’s fastest clips, 80.5 possessions per game, third overall, constantly looking to push in transition.
But that’s exactly where Indiana likes to live, too. The Fever thrives in chaos and loves to run, but their biggest weakness is depth. With so many injuries, especially to guards and wings, they’re vulnerable to fatigue and late-game collapses.
On the glass, it’s practically even. Vegas averages 33.5 rebounds per game, Indiana 33.4. Neither team has a big edge there. From deep, though, the Aces have the firepower. They’re hitting 35.1% (third-best) on 9.1 threes a night. Indiana’s efficient, too (34.6%, fourth-best), but doesn’t take nearly as many, 24.0 attempts per game and makes 8.3.
Defensively, both are leaky on the arc: Vegas gives up 31.6% from three, Indy slightly worse at 32.9%. Inside the arc, the Fever actually holds the edge in efficiency. Indiana shoots 45.6% from the field while holding opponents to 44.9%. The Aces score at 43.9% and allow 43.6%.
So basically, Vegas’ shooting depth and efficiency could wear down Indiana’s thin rotations, especially if the game slows into half-court sets. But the Fever’s speed, their momentum after that emotional win over Atlanta, and their ability to force up-tempo stretches could drag this into a grind.
What could change the game?
Statistical
Foul trouble: Indiana lets opponents take 19.5 free throw attempts (third in the league), and Vegas allows only 16.7 FTAs. To make matters worse for Fever, the Aces’ biggest strength is shooting from the line at 82.4% (second-best) while Indiana sits close to the bottom at 77.0%.
Turnovers: Vegas averages 13 per game, Indiana 14. The Fever is among the best at forcing turnovers, creating 15.2 a night, compared to the Aces’ 13.6.
Bench production: Depth could be an issue. Vegas’ bench is giving them 19.3 points per game this postseason. Indiana is dead last among playoff teams at 13.0. With the Fever already shorthanded, this is one stat that can’t be ignored.
Experience: Three Aces players have already won championships with other teams, and Las Vegas brings back-to-back title experience, while three Fever starters have only played two playoff games.
Storylines
Injury resilience: Indiana’s run has been fueled by grit. Despite losing five players to season-ending injuries, they’ve held strong behind their second unit. With the Fever surging in popularity, their underdog “prove everyone wrong” mindset could carry them further than anyone expected.
MVP Spotlight: Wilson vs. Mitchell: A’ja Wilson is the frontrunner for MVP, but Kelsey Mitchell is in the mix too, and both are playing some of their best basketball. If both stay hot, this matchup could be electric.
Past beef (s): There’s quite a bit of history simmering between these two teams but not just as squads. A lot of it comes down to the players themselves: Dana Evans vs. Odyssey Sims, Aliyah Boston vs. A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young vs. Aerial Powers, and NaLyssa Smith going up against. It will be a cinema.
Coaches’ duel: Becky Hammon is building a dynasty in Vegas, chasing a fourth title in four years. On the other side, Stephanie White is back in Indiana for her second stint, and history has a funny way of following her. She took the Fever to the Finals in her very first year as head coach in 2015, before leaving Indianapolis for Connecticut. Could she sprinkle some luck again in 2025?
Stars and key contributors
As we discussed above, the biggest difference between these two squads comes down to roster depth, experience, and INJURIES. While Aces enter the semis full healthy, Fever have six core players out.
Las Vegas Aces
A’ja Wilson: The three-time WNBA MVP is chasing a fourth title while also in the running for this year’s honor. She averaged a league-best 23.4 points, 9.9 rebounds (second), and 2.3 blocks (first) in the regular season, and she’s on a heater in the postseason too scoring 29 in Game 1, 21 in 2 and tying for second-most in playoff history, 38, to clinch the Game 3.
Jackie Young: Indiana’s own (Princeton HS legend and Notre Dame standout) is posting 16.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.4 rebounds while hitting 35.2% from deep, but for Las Vegas. With double digit points in all three first round games, her scoring average has gone from 16.5 to 19.0 in the postseason.
Chelsea Gray: The steady hand of the Aces’ backcourt, Gray averages 11.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 3.9 rebounds, with 36.1% shooting from three. Sure, she’s been calm when it comes to scoring, but she’s been steady with her playmaking and showed up exactly when her team needed her in Game 3.
Vegas X-Factors:
Jewell Loyd (10.9 PPG, championship pedigree)
NaLyssa Smith (8.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, thriving since her midseason arrival)
Dana Evans (6.8 PPG off the bench, instant spark)
Indiana Fever
Kelsey Mitchell: The captain and offensive engine, Mitchell averaged 20.2 points (third in the league) and knocked down a league-best 111 threes at a 39.4% clip. Leading the team in the postseason, she knows her responsibility well and has not disappointed fans even once. Now, with the WNBA MVP finalist tag, she will indeed bring her best game.
Aliyah Boston: The do-it-all big delivers 15.0 points, 8.2 boards, and 3.7 assists, always flirting with triple-doubles. Coming up clutch when the season was on the line, she has always delivered when the moment demanded . Her double-double (14-12) was big for Indy in Game 3.
Natasha Howard: The 12th-year vet adds 11.4 points and 6.6 rebounds, giving Indiana much-needed championship experience. Stephanie White also highlighted how it was Tash’s leadership that led them through this season. That steady leadership in Howard indeed is helping plug the gaps that last year’s Fever struggled with.
Fever X-Factors:
Odyssey Sims (10.3 PPG, 4.0 APG, vital starter in this playoff run)
Lexie Hull (7.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, her Seattle performance pushed Indy to the semis, bringing toughness and grit)
Aerial Powers (9.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, valuable stretch scorer)
Damiris Dantas (10th year, steady 4.6 PPG)
Brianna Turner (7th year, defensive presence)
Shey Peddy (5.2 PPG, versatile guard depth)
Prediction
Analysts are leaning heavily toward Las Vegas in five, pointing to their championship pedigree, depth, and Wilson’s unstoppable MVP-level form. Fans, though, haven’t counted the Fever out just yet. Indiana’s upset grit has been the story of the playoffs, and there’s a belief they might just steal a game at home to stretch this series.
ADVERTISEMENT
Article continues below this ad
Sure, the Fever’s offense has been more “on” than “off” all year; they’ve crossed 85 points multiple times. But the concern remains on the other end. Indiana’s defense has cracked lately, surrendering 98 to the Liberty twice, and while the Aces don’t have New York’s firepower, they can still punish mistakes. Combine that with Vegas’ own defensive lapses, and this series is primed for high-scoring battles.