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    Explainer: How Nigeria can qualify for the World Cup after draw against South Africa

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    Explainer: How Nigeria can qualify for the World Cup after draw against South Africa

    There are only six more points to play for in Group C, the exact number of points in the margin between Nigeria (11) and Bafana Bafana (17).

    Benin Republic are also on 11 points but have played a game fewer than Nigeria. This means that a victory for Gernot Rohr’s side against Rwanda will see them leapfrog the Super Eagles in the race to win the group.

    Goal difference is the first tiebreaker in case two teams finish on equal points, then goals scored, head-to-head, and so on.

    South Africa have a (+6) goal difference over Nigeria. With 14 goals scored to Nigeria’s 9. Benin Republic has a (-2) goal difference to Nigeria and have scored seven goals in total.

    South Africa must lose their remaining games with enough goals to dent their goal margin.

    The Benin Republic must lose at least one of their remaining three games and continue their current low-scoring form.

    Nigeria play the Benin Republic; victory in that game sets up the Super Eagles to finish above the Cheetahs.

    Nigeria must beat the Benin Republic and Lesotho. They must also score enough goals to take them above South Africa for goal difference and goals scored.

    Nigeria currently sit 8th on the rankings of the nine best second-placed teams.

    (*At the time of writing) They are currently behind Gabon (18), Madagascar (16), Congo (16), Burkina Faso (15), Cameroon (15), Namibia (15) and Uganda (15).

    Nigeria max out at 17 points if they win their remaining two games, meaning they cannot catch Gabon and are effectively competing for three slots.

    There are third-place teams in other groups like Sierra Leone, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Comoros and Liberia, who have more or as many as the Super Eagles and are alive in the second-place race in their respective groups.

    Nigeria must collect maximum points in their remaining two games and score enough goals to stay on the safe side of goal difference.

    Twelve countries must lose two of their remaining games. Those countries are Burkina Faso, Namibia, Senegal, Uganda, Benin Republic*, Comoros, Mozambique, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, and Rwanda.

    Mali, Liberia, Benin, Tanzania and Guinea must also lose at least one of their remaining games, as per calculations from @Chava_senor on X.

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