With Miami on a mission in the trenches and Florida State producing points in record numbers, the early season title race within the ACC also spikes our updated College Football Playoff projection exiting Week 4. If Florida State beats Virginia next week, the Seminoles will host the Hurricanes in a possible matchup of top-five teams in the Sunshine State on Oct. 4 with a “good on good” battle between ranked squads for the first time since 2016.
Clemson’s evaporation from national significance coupled with Georgia Tech’s rise in the conference offers unexpected intrigue at the top of the league standings in the early going. The Yellow Jackets miss both the Hurricanes and Seminoles during the regular season.
Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire found out a lot about his team during a 34-10 destruction of previously 16th-ranked Utah. Backup quarterback Will Hammond threw for 169 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 61 yards — all in the second half — following an injury to Behren Morton and helped push the Red Raiders to early Big 12 favorite status in the College Football Playoff race.
Texas Tech overcame 14 penalties and two turnovers to handle a team that has rarely lost at home under Kyle Whittingham and did most of its damage in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Utes 24-7 in the final frame. Heading into Week 5, the Red Raiders will not play another team in the Big 12 that’s currently ranked in the AP Poll, a yellow brick road of sorts to a potential playoff appearance.
College Football Playoff
Quarterfinals
First round
Date LocationProjectionWinner faces
Dec. 19 or 20
Sanford Stadium
Athens, Ga.
(5) Georgia vs. (12) South Florida
(4) Penn State
Dec. 19 or 20
Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, Fla.
(8) Florida State vs. (9) Oklahoma
(1) Ohio State
Dec. 19 or 20
Autzen Stadium
Eugene, Ore.
(6) Oregon vs. (11) Indiana
(3) LSU
Dec. 19 or 20
AT&T Texas Stadium
Lubbock, Texas
(7) Texas Tech vs. (10) Texas A&M
(2) Miami
Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.
Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown
1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion): One of a couple Big Ten elites with extra time to prep for their Big Ten opener, the Buckeyes play Washington on the road next weekend. That’s a beware game for Ryan Day, who’s won 37 straight conference games at the program other than a loss to Oregon and a couple to Michigan. That’s how dominant Ohio State has been under Day when the Buckeyes have played others within the conference.
2. Miami (ACC champion): Dominant at the line of scrimmage this season, you’re not going to get any lip over this way if you’re power ranking the Hurricanes in the top spot after four games. Miami now gets to put together a plan to try and limit much of the explosiveness Florida State has shown this fall next time out. That could be the first of two meetings between the Hurricanes and Seminoles, unless Georgia Tech or Louisville has a say in the ACC picture.
3. LSU (SEC champion): Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t been healthy this season, which is partly why LSU’s offense has failed to produce the fireworks most expected it would in the early going, according to Brian Kelly. The Tigers are going to need Nussmeier’s best next week at Ole Miss between two SEC unbeatens. The Rebels haven’t appeared in our projected playoff bracket yet this fall, but that changes if Lane Kiffin beats LSU for a third time in Oxford.
4. Penn State: Don’t call the Nittany Lions’ open date a “bye week” in front of James Franklin. Penn State’s coach was quick to correct this week following his team’s 3-0 start ahead of the Week 5 battle royale against Oregon. Additional practice time hopefully, per Franklin, will assist Penn State in improving in all three phases before one of its toughest matchups of the campaign. We’re not going to see what this Nittany Lions squad is truly made of until after next week’s all-important home game is over.
5. Georgia: Kirby Smart will disagree, but the Bulldogs can all but punch their ticket to another playoff berth with a victory next week over Alabama. That would mark Georgia’s second win this season over a fellow SEC top 15 and give a bit of breathing room moving forward with several matchups left against nationally ranked competition. Alabama is 6-1 against Georgia during Smart’s reign and won this tilt by four touchdowns the last time it was played between the hedges.
6. Oregon: Another 300-yard game and four more touchdowns to add to his season total, Dante Moore looks the part this fall for the Ducks. He is Will Stein’s third straight quarterback who provides Oregon with relentless aggression downfield, and through his first few starts has provided his team with a sense of reliability at the position. Oregon battles Penn State next Saturday night in Happy Valley, a game that determines the Big Ten’s midseason top challenger to Ohio State.
7. Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): The Red Raiders passed their first Big 12 test after taking care of business on the road against nationally ranked Utah. And most impressive? They did it in the second half without Behren Morton under center after he was sidelined following a shot to the helmet. Will Hammond led multiple fourth-quarter scoring drives as the Red Raiders scored 21 unanswered and helped Texas Tech move to 4-0 for the first time in more than a decade. Texas Tech has been our pick to win the Big 12 since the preseason and the Red Raiders are moving up in this week’s projected playoff seeding.
8. Florida State: The second team with a star quarterback who had to go to sideline early Saturday with an injury, the Seminoles are hopeful for good news concerning Tommy Castellanos. He left Florida State’s blowout win over Kent State with a lower-leg situation in the first half after running for a pair of touchdowns. The Seminoles have Virginia next week and then Miami, so needless too says they’re going to need their facilitator on offense to keep up their hot streak in ACC play.
9. Oklahoma: Is this Sooners defense the best in college football? People are asking. Brent Venables deciding to take over that side of the football this season has given Oklahoma a serious boost, evident after recording 10 sacks of Jackson Arnold during his team’s win over Auburn. Coupled with the previous home win over Michigan, the Sooners now have two quality victories in their possession with several other opportunities ahead. We mentioned at the outset that Oklahoma could potentially be a three-loss team and still get in the playoff. That case is strengthening every week.
10. Texas A&M: Can Mike Elko’s squad keep their momentum going next week against Auburn, who will have its proverbial back against the wall in College Station? That’s the goal for a team that was maybe undervalued a bit nationally before the campaign. Marcel Reed is a serious Heisman contender at quarterback, and Texas A&M’s offseason of spending in the transfer portal has shown immediate payoff through three games.
11. Indiana: The “last team in” designation this week goes to the Hoosiers after their notable nationally-ranked win over Illinois. Let’s say the Hoosiers hypothetically finish 11-1 again during the regular season but fail to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. This time around, that would mean Indiana has two ranked victories under its belt with Oregon or Penn State being the other and the Hoosiers would have a winning argument over, perhaps, a two-loss Georgia Tech. Bad news for the Yellow Jackets would be both of their projected losses — Georgia and in the ACC title game — would come the final two weekends the selection committee views these teams. There’s much to sort out in the coming weeks.