Breaking the tender data into mileage bands, the long-haul segment (loads moving more than 800 miles) has deteriorated the most. The tweener band (TOTVI), covering 450- to 800-mile moves, is a close second, with the other bands falling in sequence. The only exception is the shortest-haul band (COTVI), which measures loads under 100 miles and is the only category showing year-over-year growth.
Short-haul loads are typically tied to upstream manufacturing and intra-warehouse moves, as well as downstream distribution into storefronts and fulfillment centers for retailers.
Longer-haul loads, by contrast, compete directly with intermodal container shipping, particularly when tied to imports. Every major U.S. port has a nearby railhead, making it easier and more cost-effective for shippers to move goods inland via rai l— especially when speed is not critical.
Geopolitical uncertainty and trade disputes have further reshaped strategies. Many shippers now bring inventory into the U.S. earlier than usual to avoid disruptions or sudden tariffs. While this has pushed up inventory carrying costs and warehousing prices, shippers see it as preferable to risking stockouts or absorbing extreme duties — such as the now-paused 145% tariff on Chinese imports.
The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) shows warehousing and inventory costs rising at their fastest pace since the pandemic. Carrying higher inventory levels gives shippers more flexibility to spread out transportation needs, which helps keep freight rates lower.
Rail remains 15–30% cheaper than trucking, but with a trade-off: slower service and vulnerability to congestion at touchpoints. During the pandemic, these bottlenecks severely limited rail performance and pushed volume back to trucks.
With inventories buffered this year, urgency around domestic moves has diminished, and demand remains flat to down across many sectors. The recent increase in long-haul freight appears seasonal rather than structural, though it could still have short-term consequences in the fourth quarter when retailers ramp up activity.
One 800-mile load ties up roughly two full days of truckload capacity, compared with about a quarter of a day for a sub-100-mile move. If long-haul volumes bounce back, even temporarily, they could spark sharp increases in spot rates—highlighting the truckload market’s ongoing vulnerability.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
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