By Cheng Xin,Contributor,Trefis Team

Copyright forbes

CHONGQING, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 14: In this photo illustration, a smartphone shows the logo of Cintas Corp. (NASDAQ: CTAS), a U.S. company providing corporate uniforms, facility services, safety supplies and related business solutions, with the company’s latest stock market chart seen in the background on September 14, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
Getty Images

Cintas (NASDAQ: CTAS) stock, which provides corporate identity uniforms through rental and sales programs, is set to announce its fiscal first quarter 2026 results (closing in May) on Wednesday, September 24. Analysts predict earnings of $1.20 per share on $2.70 billion in revenue, indicating a 7% growth in EPS and an 8% increase in sales compared to last year’s figures of $1.12 per share on $2.50 billion. Historically, CTAS stock has increased after earnings announcements 72% of the time, with an average one-day gain of 3.7% and a maximum move of 8%.

The company concluded FY25 on a strong note, posting Q4 revenue of $2.67 billion (+8% YoY) with EPS of $1.09 (+9%), while its operating margin improved to 22.4%. For the full year, revenue grew by 7.7% to $10.34 billion, and EPS surged 16% to $4.40. For FY26, management has projected revenue between $11.0 and $11.15 billion and EPS between $4.71 and $4.85, emphasizing stable growth and enduring profitability. Separately, check out Rocket Lab: How Low Can RKLB Stock Really Go?

With a market capitalization close to $80 billion, trailing 12-month revenue of $10 billion, $2.4 billion in operating profit, and $1.8 billion in net income, Cintas is decidedly profitable. For traders focused on events, the situation is straightforward: either position in advance of earnings based on historical likelihoods, or await the announcement and trade based on the relationship between short-term movements and medium-term results. For those looking for a more consistent option, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio —up 91% since its inception—has regularly outperformed the S&P 500. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

Cintas’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

There have been 18 earnings data points recorded in the last five years, with 13 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 72% of the time.

Importantly, this percentage rises to 82% when looking at data from the last 3 years instead of 5.

The median of the 13 positive returns is 3.7%, and the median of the 5 negative returns is -2.6%

Additional data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

CTAS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Forward Returns

MORE FOR YOU

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation and implementing the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.

CTAS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors.

Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions