Fall is just around the corner, Terence Crawford just punched up Canelo Alvarez, and several big UFC fights are set to take place over the next few months, but there’s still one major lingering question we assume will be resolved before 2025 wraps:
What is next for Ilia Topuria?
“El Matador” took one step closer to superstardom this past June when he needed less than three minutes to knock out future UFC Hall of Famer Charles Oliveira, maintain his perfect record, and capture a vacant lightweight title to join the rare air of two-division champions. His incredible featherweight run (that included KOs of legends Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway) already pushed Topuria to the top of the MMA world, to the point that he was being feted at Real Madrid’s famed Bernabéu Stadium.
We’ve heard plenty of talk from and about Topuria since his UFC 317 triumph, but we’re yet to find out when he’s actually going to fight again and with each passing day it feels like he’s falling that much farther from mainstream relevance despite his incredible accomplishments. There is no shortage of potential opponents, so Alexander K. Lee and Jed Meshew got together to figure out who could (or should) be next for Topuria, with one of us focusing on how hot each matchup is and the other gauging it’s absurdity.
Terence Crawford
Lee: We recently passed the eight-year anniversary of Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor and it feels like we’re about due another does of that nonsense, doesn’t it?
No, Terence Crawford and Ilia Topuria have nowhere near the level of mainstream cachet as that infamous duo, and the landscape of combat sports has changed so much since that fight that boxing champion vs. MMA champion doesn’t have the novelty it once did, but there are enough parallels here to generate some legitimate crossover buzz.
Crawford is the undefeated boxing legend coming off of a win in a dream matchup with Canelo Alvarez, just like Mayweather after beating Manny Pacquiao (and, uh… Andre Berto). Topuria is the two-division UFC champion with explosive knockout power, just like McGregor. If you squint, you can really see the resemblance!
This potential matchup has been amplified by public comments from both fighters in the past few months and you can picture the gears in UFC CEO Dana White and his buddy Turki Alalshikh’s heads churning at the thought of making another industry-shaking splash. Even though Crawford vs. Topuria won’t move the needle nearly as much as it should given their accomplishments, there isn’t much standing in the way of this one happening (other than a mountain of cash for the athletes).
Heat Level: 7/10
Meshew: I hate this.
I hate this so much.
I hate everything about this.
And I hate that somehow I have to talk about it.
Look, I understand why Topuria wants to do this: he wants to get paid. The reality of MMA is that the goal is not to be a UFC champion, the goal is to get to a UFC title so you can parlay it into a boxing fight and make real money. That’s not his fault, but it sucks nonetheless. And on the other side of this, Crawford is treating this as completely absurd, which it is. But why any fan would care about this is beyond me.
We’ve done this experiment enough. The outcome is not in question. Topuria stands the exact same chance against Crawford as I would: none whatsoever. That’s not me saying I can box, that’s me pointing out how hopeless it is. Topuria could no more outbox Crawford than he could fistfight a rhino.
If Topuria could even be competitive with Crawford in boxing, then he would be boxing. Instead, he’s in MMA. And it would honestly be super cool if he would actually focus on defending a title repeatedly instead of the various flights of fancy he keeps pursuing. We already had one Conor McGregor. We don’t need another.
This would be the stupidest thing to happen in combat sports in a decade, and Fight Circus has held a half-dozen events. Please let’s stop taking it seriously.
Stupidity Level: 37/10
Paddy Pimblett
Lee: Give the people what they want!
I’ve been the Paddy Pimblett predictor for ages, calling for both the Tony Ferguson and Michael Chandler fights well before they were on anyone else’s radar, and I also said all along that crazier things have happened than guys like Pimblett receiving UFC title shots. Well, it’s time.
You can nitpick Pimblett’s résumé and the recent résumés of his veteran opponents all you want, wins are wins and every time the brash Pimblett has his hand raised it drives his supporters and his haters into a frenzy. Isn’t that what you want in a potential B-side to a championship fight?
Add in the fact that Topuria and Pimblett have a longstanding beef and this one is a no-brainer. Stop fighting it, Dana.
Heat Level: 9/10
Meshew: Here we have the exact opposite of stupid. Well, maybe not the opposite, but we’re trending in the right direction.
Does Pimblett deserve a title shot? No. Sure, he’s on a good win streak, but beating three 39-year-olds in a row doesn’t scream “I am most deserving!” But would it be a miscarriage of justice if he got one? Nope! Nobody else has an ironclad case for a title shot, so if Pimblett ends up getting the call, it’s fine.
And setting aside the personal heat between the two, I’ll admit I’m very interested in the fight. Sure, on paper it seems like Topuria should roll over Pimblett, but I’ve thought that a lot about Paddy and he just keeps getting better.
On top of that — and this is the part people rarely mention — Topuria has also been feasting on old guys lately. Yes, Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira are much better than Michael Chandler and King Green and the ghost of Tony Ferguson, but they’re still old in fight years. This would be Topuria’s first fight against someone in his prime since Bryce Mitchell, and Pimblett is much bigger. There’s some intrigue here.
Stupidity Level: 4/10
Arman Tsarukyan
Lee: Look everybody, it’s the No. 1 lightweight contender!
Technically, Arman Tsarukyan never lost his spot in line. Even in the UFC’s official rankings, Tsarukyan is at No. 2, behind only former champion Islam Makhachev, who is currently chasing welterweight glory. The matchmakers are in a weird spot because obviously they don’t want to give Tsarukyan another title shot right away after January’s UFC 311 debacle, but no one else has made an airtight case to take his place. Also, I’m confident if you did a survey asking who has the best chance of beating Topuria, Tsarukyan would come out on top of that poll.
But damn, the promotion for this fight would be dead on arrival if this is what’s announced next for Topuria. I’m not saying I never want to see it, but even Tsarukyan doesn’t think he’s getting the next shot, which is probably why he’s just been doing side quests this whole time,
Heat Level: 4/10
Meshew: If MMA were a real sport where merit carried the day, this is the matchup we’d be getting. God love Charles Oliveira, but he lost to Tsarukyan when they fought. Tsarukyan should’ve been the man Topuria had to fight for the vacant title if not for his UFC 311 issues. And while I can understand there being some consequences for that, it doesn’t change the fact that the title is supposed to represent being the best fighter in the world in a weight class, and until Topuria beats Tsarukyan, his claim to that will have an asterisk.
This is the fight that should be made, though I have little hope it will happen.
Stupidity Level: 1/10
Justin Gaethje
Lee: Deserves really ain’t got nothing to do with it.
Justin Gaethje has already had two shots at undisputed gold, so we’re not even including his interim title win back in 2020. The man is beloved and has greatly sacrificed his current and future health for our entertainment, so no one should begrudge him for wanting to stand pat in the hopes of one last title opportunity. The matchmakers, though? They’re in no hurry to oblige.
“The Highlight” turns 37 in November and he only has so many classic moments left to give us. It would just feel right to see him throw down with Topuria before it’s all said and done and this is surely the most entertaining matchup on our list. I don’t hate it.
Heat Level: 6/10
Meshew: As a lifelong Gaethje Stan, my bias prevents me from thinking rationally about this. Rationally, Gaethje should be like, fifth in line given that he just got blown up by Max Holloway.
And yet!
The truth is, Gaethje is only in this situation because he’s the man. Gaethje appeared to have the inside track for a title shot against Makhachev after beating Dustin Poirier, but because the UFC botched the UFC 300 card booking so bad, they had to call on him and Holloway to step in on short-ish notice and save it. A loss is a loss, but Gaethje has since rebounded by again being a good soldier and fighting Rafael Fiziev on short notice. Rewarding the most exciting fighter of all time for doing you a couple of solids over the past two years wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. And since Holloway already lost to Topuria, you can kinda sell it.
But mostly what sells this fight is the matchup. Gaethje is the most exciting fighter who has ever lived. Topuria is the most electric talent in the sport right now. These are the sorts of matchups we live for, and not a single person would be mad if they booked this tomorrow.
Stupidity Level: 6/10
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev winner
Lee: I admit it: I haven’t moved on from Islam Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria.
Watching Topuria smack up Charles Oliveira was great and Makhachev’s fight with Jack Della Maddalena is going to be awesome, but the selfish fight fan in me wants MORE. When you have the No. 1 and No. 2 pound-for-pound fighters in the world in their primes and just 10 pounds apart, it seems silly not to throw them in the cage. I mean, we already did this dance with Makhachev and Volkanovski, and that ruled (the first time, anyway).
If Makhachev wins, I’m down for him to defend the welterweight title against Topuria or even go back down to 155 pounds and reclaim the belt he never lost. And if Della Maddalena defends, we’re still in business, because Topuria can still chase champ-champ-champ status and Della Maddalena could potentially string together consecutive wins over Topuria, Makhachev, Belal Muhammad, and Gilbert Burns. That’s all-time stuff.
Heat Level: 8/10
Meshew: I didn’t think I could be more angry than I was at the start of this, and then you spring this shit on me?!
No. Just no.
If we’re being honest, Topuria didn’t “deserve” an immediate lightweight title shot, but because of the lack of clear-cut contenders, it was an easy move. It would be the most transparent nonsense to give Topuria a welterweight title shot when there are at least four guys who should be fighting for the belt right now. Hell, Makhachev shouldn’t be getting this one either, but here we are.
As previously stated, the purpose of a title is to signify who the best in the world is. You do that not by beating one guy but by beating many, over a period of time. Topuria needs to defend a title, any title a whole bunch because that’s the measure of greatness in this sport. Stop this nonsense right now.