By Esha Banerji,News18

Copyright news18

Over the recent few years, South Asia has witnessed significant politically charged upheavals. Multiple governments have collapsed or have been replaced by authoritarian or military regimes. Back in January 2021, India’s neighbourhood presented a relatively stable political picture, with India, Nepal and Bangladesh functioning as democratic republics; Bhutan maintaining its stability as a constitutional monarchy; Afghanistan operating under a presidential republic; Myanmar had a civilian government and Sri Lanka followed a semi-presidential system. There was a broad presence of democratically elected structures, suggesting that despite the presence of governance challenges, the region was broadly committed to representative political systems.
However, by September 2025, the regional order has drastically transformed itself. Afghanistan is now completely under the Taliban regime, essentially marking the complete collapse of its democratic system. Pakistan has, once again, gone back to military rule following the downfall of its elected government. Sri Lanka has undergone another phase of regime change amidst economic and political unrest. Bangladesh, once considered a relatively stable electoral democracy, now finds itself governed by an interim authoritarian regime following the breakdown of its democratic institutions and the toppling of the Sheikh Hasina regime. Myanmar, too, remains embroiled in a devastating civil war, with the military junta facing armed resistance, in the wake of the 2021 coup. Add to this, Nepal now finds itself in the midst of a ‘GenZ Movement’—a string of fierce protests against corruption and nepotism which has spiralled into arson and violence.
This string of dramatic transformations highlights a sharp democratic recession all across South Asia. Of all the states in the region, only India, a democratic republic, and Bhutan, a constitutional monarchy, continue to represent institutional stability. However, their resilience stands in stark contrast to the volatility that surrounds them. This, in turn, makes them anchors of democratic continuity in a region otherwise marked by violence and political turbulence.
The continued presence of political instability in India’s neighbourhood, however, is not a phenomenon confined within national borders—they have spill-over implications and consequences for India, owing to the shared borders it has with most of these states. Political crisis often triggers phenomena such as refugee inflow, humanitarian crises, cross-border terrorism and transnational criminal networks. For example, Afghanistan under the Taliban regime has already become a breeding ground for extremist ideologies, with potential security implications for India. Furthermore, Pakistan under military regime has been historically associated with heightened hostility towards New Delhi. Bangladesh’s democratic collapse has created vacuums which are being increasingly exploited by radical groups. Thus, turmoil in Nepal carries risks of generating instability along India’s open and porous borders.
Beyond security concerns, these developments also have broader strategic implications. Political and social instability undermines regional economic cooperation, further disrupting supply chains and complicating India’s vision of serving as an engine of regional connectivity. The absence of functional, stable governments in neighbouring states reduces the chances for diplomatic dialogue, cooperative initiatives and deeper integration projects. At the same time, external actors, like China, have historically sought to leverage political volatility. Furthermore, other global powers, like the US, may also exploit these fragilities to advance their own interests, thereby potentially eroding India’s strategic space.
At this juncture, an irony emerges. While India remains one of the few functioning democracies in the region, international surveys such as the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and other democracy indices have consistently ranked it poorly. Despite a relatively stable environment, India is often labelled as an “electoral autocracy” or “flawed democracy.” Such assessments raise a critical question—how can India, despite regular elections, constitutional safeguards and institutional continuity, be rated worse than states where democratic regimes and institutions have partially or entirely collapsed? Do these indices overlook the complexities that a diverse and populous polity like India faces?
For New Delhi, these developments underscore the need for a vigilant and proactive policy. The existence of its democratic institutions and relative political stability does not make it immune to the crisis engulfing its borders. On the contrary, the vulnerabilities of its neighbours impose greater responsibilities on India. Therefore, India must focus on strengthening its border security, enhancing intelligence cooperation and refining its counter-terrorism frameworks to pre-empt any possible threats it faces, both internally or externally.
Simultaneously, New Delhi should also intensify its diplomatic outreach, and actively support political stabilisation efforts in its neighbourhood without appearing interventionist. In this regard, giving development aid, crisis management assistance and providing platforms for political dialogue and discourse could cement India’s role as a regional stabiliser.
Esha Banerji is presently associated with a premier think-tank in India, specialising in defence, security, and strategic studies. Her research interest and focuses of analysis are defence strategy, geo-economics, foreign affairs, and the implications of Chinese security developments on the region, especially India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.