By Contributor,Diego Herrera Carcedo,Vikram Mittal

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Screen captures from a video posted on social media on September 13, 2025. The video claims to show a Ukrainian drone strike on the Novo-Ufa oil refinery in Russia.
Social Media Capture

Earlier this year, peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine stalled, with some claiming that Ukraine had entered the talks with “no cards” to play. Since then, Ukraine has strengthened its position, launching a series of successful drone strikes against Russian refineries, eroding one of Russia’s most important sources of revenue. At the same time, Russia is pouring increasing resources into its summer offensive and strategic drone strikes, while achieving minimal results. This combination creates a financially unfavorable situation for the Russians and provides Ukraine with much-needed leverage for the next round of peace negotiations.

Ukraine’s Strategic Strikes Against Russian Oil Refineries

Throughout this past summer, Ukraine has launched a coordinated series of long-range drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, causing major disruptions to the country’s fuel infrastructure. Reports indicate that more than ten refineries were struck during August, shutting down about 17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, or approximately 1.1 million barrels per day. Repeated strikes on the Ryazan refinery in the Moscow area and the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region disabled several key distillation units. Meanwhile the Volgograd plant in southern Russia had to suspend processing oil after a recent strike. Other refineries across the country have also been targeted. These attacks have continued into September, with additional facilities hit and many struck multiple times.

Long-range drones An-196 Liutyi of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine stand in line before takeoff in undisclosed location, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

Ukraine’s ability to strike deep targets in Russia stems from advances in its drone industry. Many of these strikes appear to involve Liutyi strike drones, which are domestically produced, allowing Ukraine to use them without requiring permission from other countries. Ukrainian engineers have upgraded this platform to have a range exceeding 2,000 km while carrying a substantial payload. These drones also incorporate low-cost artificial intelligence chips for target recognition and terminal guidance, enabling them to operate in jammed environments and precisely strike targets. Thus far, Ukrainian engineers have stayed ahead of Russian counter-drone technology, and if they maintain this edge, Ukraine will retain the ability to strike targets deep in Russia for the foreseeable future.

These strikes on Russian facilities are having a direct impact on the country’s economy. They have triggered fuel shortages, driving gasoline prices to record highs and prompting Moscow to restrict exports to stabilize its domestic market. With less fuel available for export, Russia’s petroleum revenues are declining, limiting the funds available for military operations. This effect is amplified by the instability in Russian oil supplies, which encourages international customers to turn to other sources and further weakens the Russian economy. Additionally, financial resources that would have supported the military must now be diverted to repairing and protecting the refineries. Though Russia has a large economy, the damage to its energy sector represents a significant strain.

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Russia’s Increasingly Expensive War

As their economy suffers from these strikes, Russian war expenditures are increasing. Russia allocated significant resources to a large Russian summer offensive that has achieved only minimal gains while incurring heavy casualties and losing significant amounts of equipment. Many advances were blunted by Ukrainian drone strikes, which use inexpensive FPV drones to target Russian vehicles and disrupt coordinated maneuvers. Russian forces have also struggled to capture heavily fortified Ukrainian “fortress cities” and to cross rivers, limiting their ability to advance their lines. Ukraine claims that by the end of August, this summer offensive had already cost Russia 2,100 armored vehicles, 1,200 tanks, 7,300 artillery systems, and 19,000 soldiers. While these figures are likely inflated, Russia has nonetheless suffered heavy losses without seizing a single major Ukrainian city.

DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE – SEPTEMBER 9: Ukrainian soldiers fire OTO Melara 105mm artillery at enemy positions in the direction of Pokrovsk, Ukraine on September 9, 2025. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images

Similarly, Russia’s missile and drone campaigns have produced only limited results despite a significant increase in financial expenditure. To overcome Ukrainian defenses, Russia has expanded the size of its barrages and upgraded Shahed drones with improved navigation and control. This has driven up the cost of each attack and placing greater strain on an already pressured defense budget. However, these efforts have not been successful, as many drones are still diverted by Ukrainian electronic jamming or destroyed by an expanding arsenal of interceptor drones. Meanwhile, key sites remain protected by layered air defense systems and specialized teams dedicated to neutralizing incoming threats.

Outlook for the Russia-Ukraine War

The war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine is not confined to the battlefield; it also has a significant financial dimension. Moscow’s rising expenditures on manpower, equipment, and precision weapons have produced only limited gains, while Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities and other critical infrastructure have reduced Russia’s revenues. The growing imbalance between escalating costs, shrinking revenues, and minimal gains makes this approach not sustainable for Russia.

This situation will likely force Russian leaders back to the negotiating table due to growing domestic discontent, combined with international pressure. If Ukraine is able to maintain this initiative, eroding Russia’s military strength and economic resilience, it will enter these negotiations with a strong hand of “cards” to play.

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