For college football Week 4, these 3:30 kickoffs are the meat and potatoes of a delicious three course meal. After we have made our money in the noon slate (see our picks here), we will roll over into the biggest game of the week with Auburn travelling to Norman to take on Oklahoma. And wash it down with Nebraska hosting Michigan simultaneously.
Here are my favorite plays against the spread in the late afternoon window.
Best Bet: Oregon -20.5 First Half Spread
In a rivalry previously known as “The Civil War” these two teams do not like each other. No seriously, they hate each other.
This will be the 130th all time rendition of Oregon vs Oregon State and the Ducks have dominated the last two meetings. Bad blood will only take you so far when you’re playing against a superior team.
If this wasn’t a rivalry angle, the Ducks would likely be laying 40+ points at home against an 0-3 Beavers team. Oregon State just got the brakes beat off of them by Texas Tech, their season is already over, they aren’t in a real conference.
Dan Lanning is a sociopath who lives to humiliate college football coaches and I think this week will be no different. I’m playing the first half line under the pretense that they take on Number 2 Penn State next week and will likely have the starters out at the half.
I think this number is a no doubt smash play with the Oregon starters dominating the opening 30 and earning their half off.
Auburn Travels To Oklahoma In Top 25 Matchup
If you are an SEC fan, this jumps out as a game the Auburn Tigers win. Seemingly every year they will lose four in conference to Kentucky, Vandy, and other bottom of the pack SEC teams. But in these spots against top 15 teams, they constantly pull off the upset.
The difference this year? Auburn is ranked 22nd heading into the game. There is no overlooking the Tigers as they bring former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold back to Norman.
Arnold was ran out of town after losing to three out of four ranked opponents in season two as the Sooners quarterback last season.
He has lead Auburn to an undefeated record of 3-0 to start the year, but I think it’s a little bit of fools gold. His legs are exciting, but he has not proven to be that precision pocket passer that he needs to be in a game like this.
His former head coach, Brett Venables, not only knows his former quarterback inside and out but he has experience stopping running quarterbacks in the past. Last season Venables played Jalen Milroe, Lanorris Sellers, and Auburn’s Payton Thorne.
Thorne had 23 yards on 17 carries, Sellers had 28 yards on 13 carries, and Jalen Milroe had a measly seven yards on 15 attempts.
Oklahoma is going to lean on their run defense and use the home field advantage to get on their former teammate.
Give me the Boomer Sooners -6.5.
Nebraska Is A Home Underdog
This might be one of those Big Ten games you just throw on and enjoy. It’s essentially a pick ’em with the Michigan Wolverines coming on the road to take on the Nebraska Corn Huskers. The Wolverines are 1.5 point favorites and that’s why I believe the value lies with Nebraska.
Nebraska has a great home environment, and Michigan is starting true freshman Bryce Underwood. Underwood is 0-1 on the road in a loss to Oklahoma in which he completed just nine passes.
Additionally, Michigan will be without their head coach Sherrone Moore who is serving game two of his suspension.
The handicap for Nebraska lies in a run defense that has been horrible this season squaring off with a rushing attack in Michigan’s that is really taking shape.
But I’m going to side with the road environment for a coach-less 21st ranked Michigan and take undefeated Nebraska on the money line at the best price you can find it.
Bonus Plays
Other plays I like include UConn -20.5 at home. They’re coming off back to back overtime losses and they are more than three touchdowns better than Ball State. It will all depend on how they emotionally recover from two giant let downs.
Duke -2.5. Duke opened as 3.5 point favorites but it has since been bet down. NC State is 3-0 with three close wins over bad opponents. Duke is at home and I think this line tells you a lot. If Vegas can’t give the undefeated team points against a 1-2 opponent, there’s a reason.
Liberty +280 on the money line. Liberty has been the second biggest disappointment this season (Notre Dame). They had high expectations over the summer and have gotten out to a 1-2 start. They host a 1-1 JMU team that can certainly beat them, but this Liberty team has one of the best pass defenses in the country. I expect the Flames to give them trouble leaving the door open in the fourth quarter at home. Certainly not a lock, but +280 is a juicy number if you want a ML dog.