Having been involved in college football betting for more than four decades, I’m often surprised that the most basic of recorded results — point spread records — are often overlooked by many prognosticators, many of whom spending countless hours seeking obscure trends to find an edge. That’s fine, but looking at recent performances is usually a good starting point for this weekly exercise.
What we’ll be trying to do this season is drill a bit deeper into results versus the spread, in particular, to see how teams are performing in relation to the number — overachieving or underachieving. History has taught us that this is one of the better barometers to gauge how accurate a read the oddsmakers might have on a specific team.
Thus, for now, we’re going to note undefeated ATS streaks entering this weekend. Mind you, several of these teams will have FCS results included, and we’ll note that when appropriate. We just think every handicapper should have an idea of which teams have been covering numbers early in the season, and which teams haven’t.
Spread win streaks
Arizona 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: Bye, next game Sept. 27 at Iowa State
Perhaps in the midst of one of the biggest turnarounds in the country, Brent Brennan’s clear-out of most of last year’s staff might be paying early dividends.
BYU 2-0 (1-0 vs. FBS)
This week: at East Carolina
Early days yet for the Cougars, who have beaten up a couple of outmanned foes at home (Portland State and Stanford). We’ll find out more after this Saturday at East Carolina.
East Carolina 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. BYU
This continues an uptick for the Pirates that we saw late last season after Blake Harrell was promoted from DC to HC at midseason. ECU has now covered eight of its last 10.
Florida State 2-0 (1-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Kent State
We want to see the Seminoles in action again vs. a real foe, but will have to wait another week for a game at Virginia. In the meantime, we can’t underestimate the infectiousness of former Boston College QB Tommy Castellanos.
Fresno State 3-1 (2-1 vs. FBS)
This week: at Hawaii
The Bulldogs technically don’t qualify for this list as they have a spread loss. It was in a Week 0 opener at Kansas, however, and Fresno has rolled since with three straight wins and covers.
Georgia Tech 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Temple
We aren’t surprised the Yellow Jackets beat Clemson; Brent Key has quite a record against ranked teams. It’s the unranked teams that have bothered Tech the past few years. Is it time to put QB Haynes King in the Heisman Trophy conversation?
Houston 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: Bye, next game Sept. 26 at Oregon State
Many Big 12 observers thought it was only a matter of time before Willie Fritz got the Cougars on course. It might be happening right now.
Illinois 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: at Indiana
The steady ascent of the program under Bret Bielema has been hard to ignore, as he has molded an Illini that’s similar to his best Wisconsin and Arkansas teams. A win this week at Indiana would make playoff talk hard to ignore.
Louisiana Tech 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Southern Miss
We admit to not being overwhelmed by Sonny Cumbie’s earlier products in Ruston, but the Bulldogs have made a definite turnaround. The spread uptick began late last season when LA Tech covered its last five regular-season games.
Memphis 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Arkansas
Part of an overall dramatic uptick in Tiger fortunes, now 24-5 outright for Ryan Silverfield since late in the 2022 season. Memphis looks to have made a sneaky-good portal add in QB Brendon Lewis.
Mississippi State 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Northern Illinois
We’ll see if the Bulldogs keep this going when SEC play commences next week. In the meantime, note that Jeff Lebby’s team was more competitive than it seemed despite going 0-8 in the SEC last fall, as the Bulldogs covered six of their last eight. Can MSU handle being a heavy favorite versus an FBS foe this week?
Missouri 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. South Carolina
The Tigers are no longer the Rodney Dangerfield of the SEC, as Eli Drinkwitz and his Tigers are now getting proper respect from the oddsmakers — as they should after back-to-back seasons of 11 and 10 wins, respectively.
James Madison 2-0 (1-0 vs. FBS)
This week: at Liberty
It’s starting to dawn upon the masses that the Dukes have a real program and might be ready to send their second coach in two years to a Power 4 school (Curt Cignetti to Indiana last year… Bob Chesney to somewhere next year?).
Old Dominion 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: Bye, next game Sept. 27 vs. Liberty
Many Sun Belt observers were warning to keep an eye on Ricky Rahne’s Monarchs. An earlier competitive fight at Indiana and last week’s thumping of Virginia Tech (costing Brent Pry his job in Blacksburg) support those observations.
Toledo 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: at Western Michigan
The Rockets being contenders in the MAC is almost routine business in recent years. This might be one of Jason Candle’s best teams; now, the question is whether Candle might soon make the move up the ladder.
Utah 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Texas Tech
Many Big 12 observers, knowing of Kyle Whittingham’s past successes but also the recent dip in form due to QB issues, reckoned the Utes were due for an upturn with New Mexico transfer QB Devon Dampier. So far, so good.
Utah State 3-0
This week: vs. McNeese (FCS)
Many alerted early to possible upgrades to the Aggies under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who flashed his quick-fix chops last season at New Mexico.
Vanderbilt 3-0 (2-0 vs. FBS)
This week: vs. Georgia State