FOXBORO — It’s been a while.
The Patriots have a chance at a winning streak on Sunday when the Steelers visit Gillette Stadium. It would be their first time winning consecutive games since they won three in a row — a victory over Sam Ehlinger and the Colts bookended by two wins over Zach Wilson’s Jets — in the middle of the 2022 season.
How can they move their record to 2-1 on Sunday? The key matchups are, believe it or not, rather favorable…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots’ rookie linemen vs. Steelers defense
There has been all kinds of internet ink spilled on the “how” and “why” of Drake Maye’s Week 2 performance. And rightfully so. That game featured just about every facet of the second-year signal-caller’s game: pre-snap orchestration, post-snap diagnosis, accuracy down the field, accuracy on the move, athleticism to pick up key yards with his legs.
But to focus solely on Maye’s showing is to ignore the primary reason Maye was in the down-and-distance scenarios that allowed those skills to show: It’s the offensive line, stupid.
In Week 1, the Patriots ran for just 3.3 yards per carry. Understanding it had become an inefficient play for them, they abandoned that portion of their offense in the second half, forcing Maye into situations where he had to consistently execute a dropback passing game.
In Week 2, the Patriots made a concerted effort to run the football, increasing their average to 4.2 yards per carry thanks to better connectivity along the line and better movement at the line of scrimmage. Their backs took advantage, picking up an average of 1.94 yards beyond the line of scrimmage before contact, which was the sixth-best mark in the league.
Against the Steelers on Sunday, they’ll have another opportunity to be the kind of balanced football team Mike Vrabel wants.
The Steelers have allowed 100-yard rushers in back-to-back weeks. They’re fifth-worst in the NFL in rush yards allowed, and they’ve given up 15-yard runs on nine separate occasions in two games. According to Next Gen Stats, teams have regularly run away from star edge-defender T.J. Watt — who has played 90 percent of his plays on the offensive right — to the tune of 6.0 yards per carry.
If the Patriots take a similar approach, that means all eyes will be on New England’s rookie linemen on the left side. Left tackle Will Campbell ranks 15th among all NFL tackles in run-blocking grade through two games, per Pro Football Focus. Jared Wilson, meanwhile, checks in at 58th among guards, but he showed power and athleticism in flashes in Miami that made him look like a fit for both zone and gap-scheme calls.
If the Patriots want to make life easier on their young quarterback for a second straight week, they have to run the ball. And if they want to run the ball on the Steelers, their best bet is to do so behind their first and third-round picks in the trenches.
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Matchup that will make your Sunday
Drake Maye vs. Steelers linebackers
The only team that’s been worse than the Patriots through two weeks when it comes to giving up explosive plays? The Steelers, who allow what Vrabel calls an “X play” on a whopping 17.1 percent of snaps. They also happen to be worst in the league in EPA per play when facing 12-personnel packages.
Know who loves himself some 12-personnel packages?
Josh McDaniels has his Maye-led offense utilizing that grouping at the ninth-highest rate in the league. (The Steelers offense under Vrabel’s old tight ends coach and offensive coordinator in Tennessee, Arthur Smith, uses it more than anyone at 51.3 percent of snaps.) And McDaniels keeps turning to it because it has worked through two weeks. New England is the fifth-best in football with that grouping, picking up 0.20 EPA per play with Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper on the field.
One of the reasons the Steelers might be so susceptible to giving up big plays with two tight ends on the field is that their linebacker group appears to be one that can be manipulated. If the Patriots can run the football and McDaniels can dip into his play-action bag, he could have second-level defenders like Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson — both of whom have great athletic traits — chasing their tails.
After putting together the best game of his pro career thanks in part to a game plan that featured schemed-up throws to tight ends and running backs, Maye could do the same once again Sunday against Pittsburgh’s ‘backers. He should have a pretty good idea of what he’s looking at pre-snap — and be able to diagnose where those linebackers will be — because the Steelers run single-high safety coverages at a well-above-average rate (65.5 percent, fourth-highest in the NFL).
Matchup that will take years off your life
Carlton Davis III vs. DK Metcalf
Christian Gonzalez’s hamstring responded well to the work he received early in the week at Patriots practice, but we’ll have to wait and see if he’s at all available for Sunday. They could use him if the Patriots want to cut into their 31st-ranked defense in explosive play percentage (15.4 percent).
Using Gonzalez this week might also make sense matchup-wise since the Steelers so rarely throw deep. Might that mean less ground to cover for a corner coming off a hamstring issue? According to Sumer Sports, almost 77 percent of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ throws don’t make it beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage through the air, the third-highest percentage in the league.
If Gonzalez isn’t out there, the DK Metcalf matchup would likely fall to Carlton Davis III. And if that’s the case, the Patriots will have to hope things go more smoothly for Davis than they did a year ago when Metcalf was running up and down the field on the Lions.
Davis was credited for giving up seven catches for 104 yards in his early-season showdown with the 6-foot-4, 230-pounder. Davis also picked up three flags while trying to check Metcalf.
Matchup that will surprise you
Mike Vrabel vs. Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers almost refuses to chuck it deep. Only 6.2 percent of his attempts travel 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (31st in the NFL), per Sumer Sports. His average depth of target (5.8) is last among qualifying passers, per PFF.
But he’s had a relatively-efficient first couple of games, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt, with a better than 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (five touchdowns, two picks) and a quarterback rating of 97.8, which ranks him 12th in the NFL.
The way Rodgers can stress Vrabel’s defense will be by asking the Patriots to tackle. That’s been one area that Vrabel has openly lamented after two games, and though the test this week may not be as challenging as trying to wrangle the lightning-quick Dolphins, the Steelers actually have picked up the third-most yards after the catch this season (335) and the most YAC over expected (94), per Next Gen Stats.
Getting ball-carriers down has been a focus of Vrabel’s this week, with the team sharpening its pursuit angles in periods of practice open to reporters this week, and they’ll be put to the test against Rodgers and this Steelers quick-hitting passing game.
The way to bother the 41-year-old quarterback would be to contact him. His escapability isn’t what it used to be — he has the third-highest pressure-to-sack ratio in football (30.4) and he’s taken seven sacks — but the ball is out of his hands quickly (2.64 seconds on average, fifth-fastest), so there are times when he functions as his own best protection.
Rodgers will have the ball out. The question is whether or not Vrabel’s defense will be ready to wrap up his receivers and get them down. Expect to see some improved technique from that unit in Week 3.