By Humphrey Carter

Copyright majorcadailybulletin

Meteorological autumn, the quarter covering September, October and November, will be warmer than normal throughout Spain and is unlikely to be wet, following the hottest summer since records began in 1961, surpassing that of 2022, which was the hottest until now. At a press conference to present the autumn forecast and a climate analysis of the summer, Rubén Del Campo, spokesperson for state met. office Aemet, highlighted the forecast for the autumn season: ‘A scenario dominated by higher than usual temperatures is expected throughout the country, with a probability of 60-70 per cent on the mainland and the Balearics and 50 per cent in the Canary Islands’.

As for rainfall, Del Campo pointed out that the ‘uncertainty is even greater’: models indicate that it is ‘unlikely’ that autumn will be particularly wet, especially in the west and centre of the mainland, as well as in the Canary Islands. The summer of 2025 was the warmest on record in Spain since 1961, with an average temperature on the mainland of 24.2 degrees, i.e. 2.1 degrees above normal. This exceeds the previous record, set in 2022, by one tenth of a degree and is six tenths of a degree above the ‘historic summer of 2003’, which until then was the benchmark for extreme heat in Europe.

The Aemet spokesperson emphasised that climate analyses confirm a ‘clear trend’ towards heat waves: Nine of the ten warmest summers in Spain have occurred in the 21st century, and in the last decade, three of the last summers have been among the warmest: 2022 was the second warmest, 2023 the fourth and 2024 the seventh.

During the summer months, the entire mainland recorded extremely high temperatures, except for the north-eastern quadrant, where the summer was very warm, and the islands, where very hot conditions prevailed. The greatest anomalies, with temperatures more than 3 degrees above normal, were concentrated in the interior of the mainland, especially in Galicia and the two plateaus.

By month, June marked a ‘milestone’, explained the expert, being the hottest in the entire series and the most “anomalous” recorded in any month since 1961, with a deviation of 3.6 degrees from the average; July offered a ‘brief respite’, with milder temperatures in its second half, the coolest end of the month since 2011; August, on the other hand, was once again extreme and tied with 2024 as the warmest in the series.

Del Campo warned that the temperatures reached in 2022 and 2025 are ‘comparable to those predicted by climate models for the middle of the century, reinforcing the evidence of accelerated warming’. The summer was marked by three heatwaves: two on the mainland and the Balearics, and one in the Canary Islands, totalling 33 days under this phenomenon, only behind the 41 days recorded in 2022.

The first wave, between 18 June and 4 July, stood out for its duration (17 days) and extent (40 provinces affected), making it the third longest and most extensive since records began. The spokesperson emphasised that the second wave, between 3 and 18 August, was one of the most severe in history: ‘The second most intense, the second most extensive and the fourth longest, with an anomaly of 4.2 degrees, affecting 42 provinces and lasting 16 days’.

Extreme temperatures were reached: 45.8 degrees in Jerez de la Frontera and 45.2 degrees in Morón de la Frontera on 17 August. Murcia reached 45.1 degrees and Alcantarilla 45 degrees on the 18th. However, despite the general trend, there were brief episodes of below-normal temperatures, such as those recorded between 19 and 26 July and at the end of August. The lowest temperature of the summer was 5 degrees in Puerto de Navacerrada on 21 July.

In terms of rainfall, the summer was characterised by dry conditions, with an average of 57 litres per square metre in mainland Spain, equivalent to 81% of the usual amount. It was the fourteenth driest summer since 1961 and the seventh driest of the 21st century. There were notable regional differences: Galicia, Asturias and northern Castile and León experienced a very dry summer, and even an extremely dry summer in inland Galicia, coinciding with the wave of fires that affected the region in August.

In contrast, the north-east of the peninsula – Catalonia, Aragon and Navarre – and areas in the centre and south-east experienced a wet or very wet summer, in some places even extremely wet due to intense storms. In the Canary Islands, although rainfall is usually scarce in summer, the weather was very wet, and in the Balearics, it was uneven: dry in the west and wet in the east, with a normal overall balance.