Last week was nearly perfect for this column in terms of spread picks, with us hitting four of five games, but the NFL can be a cruel mistress and the Jaguars failing to cover +3.5 was a perfect example of how quickly things can change when you’re picking spreads and totals in this league. As highlighted in my “Bet It Now” column from earlier this week, I expect a lot of change in Week 3 after a full fortnight of nothing but the favored teams finding a way to win.
Get ready to bet on some dirty dogs if you’re tailing.
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Week 3 to me looks like a massive overcorrection by the market. Some of these lines for favored teams are just wildly out of whack, which is somewhat to be expected after teams that were favored by 3 points went a ridiculous 19-2 during the first two weeks of the season. The Bills didn’t make anything easy on Thursday night — they still won by double digits, but they didn’t cover and nearly had to go overtime against the Dolphins. I think that’s indicative of what we might see this week.
So get ready to get in the mud with some dirty dogs this week, because we’re playing the ugliest of the ugly in Week 3 of 2025. For all of my picks — plus a slew of great insight from other experts — make sure to join SportsLine and turn on alerts.
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Below we’ve got my five favorite bets of the week, the three teams that are terrifying me, a couple player props I love for this weekend and my best bets for anytime touchdown scorers. Let’s get into some NFL betting.
Best bets
Rams +3.5 at Eagles
OK, OK. This isn’t that ugly. The Rams are flat out good and one of the five or six best teams in the NFL in my opinion. I was going to get away from Los Angeles, but 1) I love Matthew Stafford more than most members of my family and 2) the NFL has stated it plans to crack down on tush push officiating this weekend. That might seem like a worn out storyline, but it matters. If the Eagles are hesitant on a goal-line or fourth-down sneak and/or they get called for a false start in one of those situations, it could very well end up in Philadelphia being stopped or backed up, and the difference there could be four points — or more. That makes a huge difference in a game where a team without a passing touchdown is favored by more than a field goal against an elite passing offense and a sneaky elite defense. Rams outright. Let’s ride.
Titans +4.5 vs. Colts
This line continues to drift somehow and I absolutely love it. The Colts are good; I don’t think they’re the 2025 version of the Saints from last year. However, I’m not sure they should be a huge road favorite in the division against a team with a rookie quarterback who is live for a breakout game. Cam Ward started his NFL career against the Rams and Broncos and that’s about as tough as it gets out of the gate. The Indy defense isn’t nearly as scary and if Tennessee can limit the big Jonathan Taylor plays — half of his yards from scrimmage came on two plays last week — and turn over Daniel Jones a couple times, they should be able to convert it into points. The Colts have a talent and coaching edge here for sure, but all we need is the Titans to keep it close and we’re good.
Browns +7.5 vs. Packers
Deeper into the crevasse we go! I didn’t think we needed to be on this earlier in the week, but clearly I was wrong. The Browns were +8.5 everywhere roughly 24 hours ago — is it weird that makes me like them more? The Browns have allowed the fewest total yards by an 0-2 team since the 1994 Cardinals, so we know the defense is good. They can limit what the Packers want to do most, which is run the ball. Slow down Josh Jacobs, eat up clock on offense with some explosive Quinshon Judkins plays, keep the game close, don’t let the Packers run away and creep through the backdoor. Or just win the game outright. Either way! This is a lookahead spot for the Packers too, by the way, with a Sunday night trip to Dallas in the Micah Parsons revenge game looming. If the Packers are up 10+ late I’d expect them to rest everyone in advance of Week 4 and not worry about Joe Flacco and/or Dillon Gabriel creeping in the back door.
Saints +7.5 at Seahawks
The Saints have been surprisingly frisky this year, holding the ball with a chance to win against the Cardinals and 49ers in the first two weeks of the season. The injury report for the Seahawks is terrible and while Mike McDonald’s defense is probably elite when healthy, there’s a reasonable chance — and I can’t believe I’m writing this — Spencer Rattler can take advantage of it. This total is super low, so Sam Darnold has to be kind of perfect for the Seahawks to cover if the Saints are remotely competent on offense. Maybe this blows up in my face, but I think the Saints are live to win this game outright if they get a couple of breaks and make a few big plays on offense.
Jets +7 at Buccaneers
It’s probably to bet this while you can: the Jets are +6.5 in a lot of places and obviously that number matters. I think Baker Mayfield takes care of business and wins this game, but as long as it’s a fourth-quarter touchdown for the third week in a row, no one will mind, because it likely means the Jets cover. Tampa Bay is down multiple starting offensive linemen and has been dealt some serious blows on defense as well in the past week. Yes, it’s a Todd Bowles revenge game and that scares me, but I also saw Garrett Wilson’s comments on Tyrod Taylor and he might be an upgrade for this offense in this specific matchup because of how the Bucs funnel offenses away from the run.
Week 3 parlay
Through two weeks we’ve had almost no upsets. Survivor pools are firmly intact and everyone is going to be looking to jump on the chalk out there. So here’s a fun little idea if you like chaos: take four of your favorite underdogs this week and put them in a round-robin moneyline parlay. (It’s a little convoluted and a long story on building it out for you, but you can click below and then add a fourth team, in this case I’ll use the Patriots as an example).
The way to bet this (on DraftKings for example) is to click round robin in the app or on the web at the bottom of the bet slip. You then put .2u on the four possible three-way combination of these four games and, just to be safe, .2u on the four-way parlay as well. If any three-team combination of the four teams in your round robin emerge victorious, you hit that parlay. If all four teams win, you sweep the board on all the combos. You can also do a two-team round robin, but then you have to go six total bets for every possible combination, so you’d want to dial back your unit size, obviously. Round robin responsibly!
Player props
Caleb Williams Over 238.5 passing yards
This number’s gone up five yards since I gave it out on our Wednesday Early Edge show on CBS Sports Network, but I’m fine with it still and probably would like anything under 250 passing yards. The Dallas Cowboys are, as you may have noticed last week, vulnerable to the pass. Russell Wilson just went for 450 yards on them! Williams isn’t typically a big passing yardage guy: he has just four career 300-yard games and hasn’t gone over 210 yards this year, which is why we’re getting a suppressed number. I don’t think he’ll have a choice but to throw in this spot as the Cowboys should be capable of moving the ball (or the Bears incapable of stopping the Cowboys) through the air and Williams and Chicago will be forced to reciprocate the other way. Rome Odunze has been superb this season and I expect another big week from him, plus a potential breakout game from D.J. Moore here in a game with a massive total, one of two above 50 points for the week.
Christian McCaffrey Over 109.5 rushing + receiving yards
Despite Brock Purdy being designated as a game-time decision on Thursday, I’m still expecting this to be Mac Jones. Regardless, I like the prop, because there’s a chance Juaun Jennings doesn’t play in this game (he wasn’t seen practicing Thursday) which should lead to the ball being funneled to Ricky Pearsall (his Overs will be appealing) and McCaffrey. The star RB is coming off a game against the Saints in which he ran 13 times for 55 yards but more importantly was the ultimate checkdown weapon for Jones, catching six passes for 52 yards. The Cardinals just gave up 80+ scrimmage yards to Chubba Hubbard and McCaffrey is a much, much better player.
Anytime TD scorer props
Tyler Allegier anytime TD
I was actually surprised how high this number was for the player who scored the only touchdown of the game in Sunday night’s snoozer of a Falcons-Vikings game. Allegier is the backup running back in Atlanta, so he can’t exactly be Bijan Robinson level (-200). But he will see random goal line work and a drive here or there, meaning this could cash at any moment. More importantly, the Falcons are massive road favorites (-5.5) against an opponent that can’t stop the run, meaning if the game script goes to plan — and, yes, I realize I’ve already predicted chaos, so this is a bit against the grain — Allegier should see plenty of touches in the second half and fourth quarter.
Nico Collins
A very reasonable price on a very good player who is the alpha receiver on this Texans team. Collins caught a touchdown last week and still isn’t getting the market respect he should deserve this week, probably because the total is so low (Nick Chubb is the shortest player to score in this game at +105 as a result). But the Jags have already given up three touchdowns to wide receivers this year, including two red-zone scores on five red-zone targets. They’re particularly vulnerable to outside WR1s (Ja’Marr Chase just went for 14/165/1 without Joe Burrow for most of the game) and Collins should be able to find pay dirt in this game. Collins is also tied for third in the NFL in red-zone targets (4) and targets inside the 10-yard line (2) this season and with the Texans unable to run effectively, C.J. Stroud could be forced to throw near the goal line again.
George Pickens