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    Looking at potential NLDS matchups for Cristopher Sánchez, other Phillies starters

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    By Geoff Mosher

    Copyright phillyvoice

    Looking at potential NLDS matchups for Cristopher Sánchez, other Phillies starters

    The worst-kept secret in baseball was finally let out Tuesday when Phils manager Rob Thomson confirmed that Cristopher Sánchez will be the Phillies’ Game 1 starter for the postseason, followed by Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo – a rare lefty-lefty-lefty starting triumvirate resulting from Zack Wheeler being out for the rest of the year and Aaron Nola’s injury plagued, ineffectual season.

    After the Phils clinched the National League East on Monday with a thrilling 10th-inning win over the Dodgers, Thomson told reporters that the starting rotation would be adjusted in the coming days to set up Sánchez as the Game 1 starter when the NLDS begins Oct. 4, per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb.

    It can be argued that the Phillies’ comeback win over the Dodgers on Tuesday night was just as important as their division-clinching win the night before because the 9-6 Game 2 victory ensured that the Phils would take their season series against the Dodgers and give them the postseason tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

    Getting a top-two seed is vital given both the Phillies’ MLB-best home record (51-24) and Sánchez’s well-known success at Citizens Bank Park.

    The Phillies are off today before starting a three-game road series Friday against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. With nine games to play, they are 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the No. 2 seed. It would take an epic Phillies collapse and a major hot streak by the Dodgers for the Phils to lose their grip on a Wild Card round bye.

    The Phillies are actually much closer to the No. 1 seed than falling out of a top-two seed. They’re just 2.5 games behind the Brewers, who are home against the Angels on Wednesday night, for the NL’s best record.

    Here’s a look at how the Phillies’ first three starters have fared against their likeliest NLDS opponents:

    Cristopher Sánchez vs. potential NLDS opponents

    As the No. 2 seed, the Phillies can only play the winner of the 3-6 Wild Card matchup. The MLB playoffs don’t reseed after the Wild Card round.

    Right now, the 3-6 matchup is (3) Dodgers vs. (6) Mets, although the Dodgers only hold a 2-game NL West division lead over the Padres and the Mets are being chased for the final playoff berth by the Diamondbacks and Reds.

    Let’s assume the current 3-6 holds and look at Sánchez’s outings this year against both:

    Those numbers wouldn’t inspire confidence, but it’s important to know that only two of those starts – one vs. each team – came at home. (Also, the Phillies went 3-2 in those 5 games).

    Here’s how Sánchez performed against both teams this season at Citizens Bank Park:

    A much better result. The Phils went 2-0 in those games. Just in case the Padres edge the Dodgers for the 3-seed and advance to the NLDS, here is Sánchez’s lone start this season against the Padres, which came in South Philly:

    If the Phillies get the top seed, they’d play the winner of the 4-5 Wild Card game, which right now is (4) Cubs vs. (5) Padres. Sánchez didn’t face the Cubs this year.

    Ranger Suárez vs. potential playoff opponents

    If the Phillies as the No. 2 seed can win Game 1, they’d have an even bigger matchup advantage given Suárez’s success this season against the Mets and Dodgers. He faced each of them once, including just Monday night in L.A.

    If they get the top seed and face either the Cubs or Padres, Suárez would also be facing the Cubs for the first time this year. He started one game against the Padres, and it was just OK, but it was also in San Diego. The Phils lost that game, 4-2. Here’s his line:

    Jesús Luzardo vs. potential playoff opponents

    Overall, Luzardo is 3-2 against both clubs but both losses came on the road, including Wednesday’s 4-0 loss to the Dodgers that prevented the Phillies from a sweep.

    Basically, Luzardo had one bad outing against the Mets – he was ejected upon exiting the game for having words for the home-plate ump – and a bad first inning last week in South Philly against them before mowing down 22 straight to leave with the lead in a sweep-clinching win or else his numbers against New York would be even better.

    If the Phillies get the top seed, Luzardo will probably be rooting for the Cubs in the Wild Card round. He didn’t face the Padres this year but dominated the Cubs twice, once at home and once on the road. Here’s a look at both of Luzardo’s starts against them:

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    Follow Geoff on Twitter/X: @geoffpmosher

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