By Summer Heat
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A recent study conducted by economists from the University of Mannheim and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlights the significant economic impact of extreme weather across Europe this summer. According to the research, short-term losses reached at least 43 billion euros, with Bulgaria ranking among the four EU countries most affected, alongside Cyprus, Greece, and Malta. The study attributes the damage to a combination of heatwaves, drought, and floods, estimating that each of these nations lost over 1 percent of their gross added value in 2024.
Other EU countries heavily impacted include Spain, Italy, and Portugal, which also saw notable economic setbacks from extreme weather. Experts warn that, at the EU level, losses from such events could escalate to 126 billion euros by 2029 if current trends continue. For 2024, the overall effect of this summer’s weather on the EU economy is estimated at 0.26 percent of total economic output.
The economists emphasized that their figures are “conservative,” as they do not account for the recent widespread forest fires in southern Europe or the cumulative effects of multiple extreme events occurring simultaneously. Sehrish Usman, lead author and economist at the University of Mannheim, noted that timely assessments are crucial for helping policymakers direct support more effectively, especially in the absence of official data. He added that the true costs of such events unfold gradually, influencing lives and livelihoods beyond the immediate damage.
In addition to economic losses, scientists are investigating how climate change has intensified these extreme conditions. Research indicates that global warming has increased the likelihood of wildfires in Spain and Portugal by 40 times, and in Greece and Turkey by tenfold. The June heatwave, in particular, is estimated to have caused a threefold rise in mortality across 12 major European cities, demonstrating the profound human toll alongside financial costs.
