It’s still early, but no team has looked better through two weeks than the 2-0 Buffalo Bills, who are the current Super Bowl favorites at DraftKings (+425).
The Dolphins, on the other hand, started the season with a pair of concerning losses, falling 33-8 to the Colts in Week 1 before losing 33-27 to the Patriots at home last Sunday.
With two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions, it’s no surprise to see oddsmakers expecting a big Bills victory, as we’ll break down below.
Can Miami step up and remind us that it’s often risky to doubt a team playing a familiar division rival? Or will reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills’ red-hot start continue at home?
How To Watch Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EDT
TV: Prime Video
Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Odds: Spread, ML
Dolphins-Bills Betting News, Analysis
Everything is going the Bills’ way right now, though this team is dealing with injuries to two key defensive players, D-lineman Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano.
Miami, on the other hand, is struggling on both sides of the ball, and questions about the longterm futures of both QB Tua Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel are mounting.
Miami vs. Buffalo Latest Injury News
The absences of Oliver and Milano could be problematic for the Buffalo front seven, but the Bills should otherwise be at full strength, as three other players who are listed as questionable all participated in practice on Wednesday.
For Miami, two key DBs — safety Ifeatu Melifonwu and corner Storm Duck — are out tonight, and tight end Darren Waller is also unavailable. WR Jaylen Waddle and LB Chop Robinson are questionable, leaving the Fins potentially dealing with several key absences.
Miami Dolphins Betting News, Outlook
In most, it’s way too early to write off an NFL team after just two games, but the vibes in Miami have been trending in the wrong direction since training camp, when cornerbacks Kader Kohou and Artie Burns suffered season-ending injuries.
As expected, the defense has struggled early this season. Miami allowed both Indy’s Daniel Jones and New England’s Drake Maye to average well over 9 yards per attempt, and only the Bears have given up more than the 66 points that the Fins have surrendered.
The Miami offense took a step forward in Week 2 against the Patriots, as Tagovailoa threw for 300-plus yards and Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle all put up big numbers.
Thursday night’s tough road test will give a great indication of whether Tagovailoa and this offense will be able to keep Miami afloat this season.
Buffalo Bills Betting News, Outlook
The Bills entered the season with sky-high expectations, and they’ve only increased after two impressive wins. Buffalo already owns one of the signature victories across the entire league, a memorable comeback to stun Baltimore in Week 1, and it was dominant in Week 2, thumping the Jets 30-10.
Allen was outstanding a year ago en route to league MVP honors, and he’s off to an excellent start to the 2025 campaign. He was quiet statistically in Buffalo’s easy Week 2 win over the Jets. He posted MVP-caliber numbers (394 yards passing and two rushing TDs) to lead his team’s incredible Week 1 comeback, though.
The biggest question for the Bills is whether the defense can play at a championship level. For most of the Week 1 matchup against the Ravens, that unit struggled, but it played well vs. the Jets, limiting New York to just 154 yards of total offense and 11 first downs.
The Bills will be heavily favored in each of their next five games, and they have a great chance to be 7-0 when the Chiefs come to town on Nov. 2.
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Best Bets
As we’ve made clear at this point, these are two teams that have little in common at the moment, and on paper, Buffalo should cruise.
The injuries to Oliver and Milano are significant, especially if they prove to be long-term. Tonight, however, I don’t see Miami being able to keep this one close for 60 minutes, even if it has some early success on the ground.
It takes a lot to convince me a favorite will cover a spread this substantial, but I like Buffalo to roll, and cover.
Another solid bet worth considering is Buffalo to go over its team total, because while the Bills’ D might struggle, this offense should have no trouble finding the end zone in this matchup.
Best bets:
Bills -11.5 (-110 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Bills Team Total Over 31.5 (+100 at FD) — 0.5 units
Best Dolphins vs. Bills Player Props
In tonight’s game, we like Bills RB Ray Davis to have a big night on the ground (over 23.5 yards rushing — -112 at FD) and Dolphins RB De’Von Achane to be one of his team’s top receiving threats (over 39.5 yards receiving — -112 at FD).
For the details on why we like Davis and Achane, click here to read our deep dive into the best Dolphins vs. Bills Week 3 prop bets.
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