By Suranjana Tewari

Copyright bbc

The deal also creates a “TikTok Template” for other Chinese companies to deploy their technology in the US through licensing, investor and tech expert Kevin Xu wrote in his recent newsletter.

He added that ready-to-go Chinese technologies that matter to national competitiveness, like batteries and rare earths, could now flow to the US more easily.

“This is the formula that will likely be applied should, say, BYD want to make a jump into the US market, or CATL want to step up its expansion to supply more US carmakers with its batteries.”

China can spin the deal as a win – it is exporting Chinese-made tech on its own terms. And that might be critical leverage for Beijing in trade negotiations with Washington.

“The Chinese side have called the talks in depth, constructive and candid. That signals that they are actually quite happy with how things are going,” said former World Bank Country Director for China Bert Hofman. “Question is when will there be a full deal?”

A TikTok deal could buy them time for exactly that. The US is a huge export market for China, and China is a major buyer of American agricultural goods. High tariffs would hurt both. There are also export controls on both sides, especially restricting US access to rare earths, which China has a near monopoly over.

Ultimately, it seems a breakthrough on TikTok is progress for China. The US may get a deal, but perhaps not the coup Trump had in mind.

“The deal might work on paper – but in practice, it will always sit under a cloud,” Ms Jaidka said.

“A US TikTok will look like the same app, but behind the scenes it will run on borrowed code, firewalled data, and political trust that could vanish overnight.”