The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut marks a pivot toward easier money. It also sets the stage for a new market playbook, and JPMorgan’s analysts are already drawing up winners and losers.
With short-end rates expected to drop by a whole percentage point to 3.5% by early 2026, the focus is shifting to which stocks can translate cheaper borrowing into fatter earnings.
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Winners In A Cheaper Credit World
History suggests the second year of an easing cycle packs the biggest punch — the S&P 500 has averaged a 26.5% gain assuming no recession. JPMorgan believes this time will be no different, with capital-heavy and rate-sensitive sectors poised to shine.
Big tech firm remain front and center. Amazon.com Inc AMZN, for example, could climb toward the bank’s $265 target. Lower financing costs bolster logistics investments and consumer demand.
There’s also Meta Platforms Inc META, which is still riding AI tailwinds. The Facebook parent company carries an $875 target — a hefty premium to its current ~$779.
Cyclical plays also get their moment. Ford Motor Co F, weighed down by debt, stands to benefit directly from lower interest expenses, with a $13 price target implying double-digit upside.
A post-pandemic Carnival Corp CCL will likely benefit as cruise demand improves on affordability. Even financials like Bank of America Corp BAC make the list, with JPMorgan seeing shares reclaiming $51 as loan growth and net interest margins stabilize under a friendlier rate regime.
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Losers When The Music Slows
Not everyone wins in a low-rate environment. Utilities like Consolidated Edison Inc ED, which rely on fixed-rate debt and have limited upside from consumer demand, could see relative underperformance.
Similarly, Northern Trust Corp NTRS, with its asset-sensitive model, may find itself left behind as peers with floating-rate leverage enjoy relief.
JPMorgan’s message is clear: easing cycles lift most boats, but some will sail faster.
For investors eyeing the next leg of the rally, names like Amazon, Meta, Ford, and Carnival could be the ones steering ahead, while defensive plays risk getting stuck in calmer waters.
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