By John Greechan

Copyright scotsman

There is a danger, of course, in falling into an age-old trap. But that’s not a mistake you’d expect from David Gray, who will know exactly why the odds makers continue to rank Rangers as favourites in Saturday evening’s Premier Sports Cup quarter-final at Ibrox. All things being equal, Russell Martin’s team should always be fancied to take care of Hibs on home soil. But all things are not equal, are they? Not on either side of the scales. Because, while Hibs won’t exactly roll into Govan feeling invincible, the fact that they beat Rangers at Ibrox as recently as April is just one of the factors weighing in their favour. The biggest bonus? The sheer state of Martin’s team – a side mired in the sort of crisis that may yet cost the manager his job a little over three months into the gig. The basic numbers alone make for bleak reading, with the fact that Rangers are sitting tenth in the Scottish Premiership after five games – two points behind Hibs, despite having played a game more than the Easter Road side – an accurate reflection on their performances. They’re giving up a touch over ten shots a game to opponents, the ninth worst record in the league, sit second bottom in goals scored and 10th in goals conceded. In the league alone, they’re ranked ninth in what the Wyscout analysts call ball losses. Which basically means they give possession away. A lot. Vulnerable at set pieces without being overly dangerous with their own corners and free-kicks, there isn’t much going right for Rangers at the moment. And yet … yeah, they still have some quality there. Hibs just have to make sure the good players don’t get a chance to show their ability. There’s a lack of cohesion and width in how Rangers build from the back. Which means, as Photo 1 from the 2-0 home loss to Hearts at the weekend shows, they struggle to get going; even though it LOOKS as if they’ve beaten the opposition press here, with four opponents taken out of play, they can’t get out of their own half – and end up conceding a chance. The graphic below, showing Rangers’ players average positions against Hearts, also demonstrates how narrow they were. It’s like they’re playing across the width of the penalty box at times. Photo 2 demonstrates this even more obviously, as Rangers fail to add quick width and height when the ball is back with Jack Butland. Often the goalkeeper has no option but to hoof it up the park and hope for the best. Rangers can still be dangerous, of course. Often they look at their strongest WITHOUT the ball, which is not something you’d expect from a Russell Martin team. As Photo 3 shows, they will press to good effect at times. If Hibs can play through that, they’ll get plenty of joy going forward. You have go back a long way to find evidence of Rangers playing in a really expansive and dangerous manner. So far back, in fact, that one of the players shown in Photo 4 – Cyriel Dessers – is no longer at the club. Hibs haven’t been firing on all cylinders. We could – and Gray’s coaching team almost certainly already have – spend hours going over the defensive lapses in Saturday’s 3-3 home draw with Dundee United. If they play as fast and loose at Ibrox this weekend, even a shot-shy and apparently toothless team like Rangers will find a way to hurt them. Get the basics right out of possession, however, and they will make life hard for their hosts. As anyone familiar with the Ibrox clientele can testify, a solid start – even a bit of stuffiness in the right areas, combined with pressing and harrying to generate turnovers high up the park – has the potential to create just a little bit of tension in the air. Perhaps even the odd polite grumble about the tactics, selection choices and general air of the man currently occupying the manager’s office. Psychologically, tactically and emotionally, Rangers are vulnerable. Yet they’ve just executed a net spend of £20 million – that’s based on their own figures – in the summer transfer market. At some point, the quality in the dressing room has to show on the field of play. Gray will understand that. But will back his team to keep exposing the most glaring flaws in a Rangers team battling to save their season halfway through September. John Greechan holds a UEFA B Licence in coaching and a Certificate in Advanced Tactical Analysis from Barca Innovation Hub Universitas. Your next Hibs read: Exclusive interview with new signing Dan Barlaser