A new poll from Christopher Newport University shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 52% to 40% among likely voters in the Virginia governor’s race. Of the 808 respondents, who were surveyed between Sept. 8 and 14, 8% said they were undecided.
“There’s still certainly some room for movement,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director at the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at CNU. “I will say this is a tough hill to climb for Earle-Sears, particularly given Spanberger is hitting above 50%, although with the margin of error maybe she’s slightly below that.”
Bromley-Trujillo said Spanberger’s lead is mostly attributable to doing well with independent voters, 55% of whom indicated they would vote for Spanberger compared to 32% for Earle-Sears. Spanberger is also outperforming Earle-Sears among Black voters, women, young voters and voters with college degrees.
The poll found that Democrats were leading in the other statewide races too, though more people were undecided. Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi is leading Republican John Reid 48% to 37%, with 15% undecided. In the attorney general’s race, former Del. Jay Jones is ahead of Republican incumbent Jason Miyares 48% to 41%, with 12% undecided.
With six weeks to go until Election Day and early voting beginning Friday, voters are still getting to know the candidates, Bromley-Trujillo said.
“The candidates have a lot of room to grow as far as getting their message out, getting their name ID out, particularly in those down ballot races,” she said. “While that’s important, I’d say voters are still mostly relying on party ID to make their vote choice, but the messaging can still matter.”
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A poll from last month from Roanoke College found that Earle-Sears had made up some ground, with Spanberger leading 46% to 39%.
The poll also asked about top of mind issues for likely voters in Virginia. It found that 21% of respondents listed inflation and cost of living as their primary issue, and 18% identified threats to democracy as the primary issue. Other important issues were found to be education, immigration and crime.
Virginia gubernatorial elections are often considered to be a referendum on the presidency.
“Over time, Virginia has very consistently gone against the party in power in the White House,” Bromley-Trujillo said of the trend in governors’ races. “That’s especially true when the president’s popularity is really low, which it is right now, and so it has an impact on all of the races from governor on down to the House of Delegates and even local races.”
The poll found that though 48% of likely voters approve of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job performance and 42% disapprove, just 39% approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, and 58% disapprove.
“Maybe President Trump’s approval rating shifts, which could impact Virginia races,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “But of course, we’re already starting voting tomorrow, so that impact is going to become less and less over the course of the election season.”
Kate Seltzer, 757-713-7881, kate.seltzer@virginiamedia.com