A new poll of Florida voters shows Republicans with a clear edge in the race for governor, though Democrats retain some pathways to competitiveness.
Overall, 51 percent of respondents said they would back a Republican candidate for governor, compared to 38 percent who said they would support a Democrat, according to the latest Cygnal poll. Another 11 percent remain undecided.
The poll was conducted between August 25 and 27 among 1,000 voters.
Why It Matters
The poll underscores how steep the climb remains for Democrats in Florida. With Florida often setting the tone for national politics, the outcome of this race could signal whether Democrats can compete again in a state that was once a presidential battleground—or if it is slipping further out of reach.
What To Know
On a generic ballot, Republicans enjoy strong consolidation among their base, with nearly 90 percent of GOP voters aligned with their party. Democrats, meanwhile, hold 86 percent support among their own ranks, but face challenges with swing voters, only 27 percent saying they would vote for a Democrat, compared to 38 percent who said they would choose a Republican candidate.
Breakdowns by demographics suggest where the contest is most competitive. Women (47 percent Republican to 40 percent Democratic) are more evenly divided than men (55 percent Republican to 35 percent Democratic). Voters under 55 lean closer to parity, while those over 55 show a stronger Republican tilt. Regional divides are also clear: Democrats remain stronger in South Florida, while Republicans dominate in rural counties and Northern Florida.
Among Hispanic voters, 45 percent said they would back the Republican candidate for governor, compared to 42 percent for the Democrat and 13 percent who remain unsure. White voters favored Republicans by a wider margin, 58 percent to 33 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
Overall, 11 percent of voters said they were unsure of their choice. That share was higher among self-identified swing voters, where 35 percent said they were undecided. Within that group, 27 percent supported the Democrat and 38 percent backed the Republican.
But the Democrats face an uphill battle in the state. Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and no Democrat has carried the state in a presidential election since 2012. Over the past decade, the state has shifted sharply to the right: DeSantis expanded his margin of victory from less than half a point in 2018 to nearly 20 points in 2022, and President Donald Trump carried the state by 13 percent in 2024, up from his 3.4 percent margin in 2020.
Republicans now dominate Florida politics, holding every statewide office, both U.S. Senate seats, large majorities in the congressional delegation, and supermajorities in the state legislature.
Several contenders have already declared their candidacy for the 2024 Republican primary. U.S. Representative Byron Donalds has officially launched his campaign with the backing of Trump, immediately positioning himself as a front-runner. He faces competition from Paul Renner, the former Speaker of the Florida House, who entered the race earlier this month and is seeking to build a base beyond Trump’s endorsement network.
On the Democratic side, the field remains less defined. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, who switched parties in 2025, has announced his candidacy and is working to consolidate Democratic support behind his campaign. He is currently the highest-profile Democrat to enter the race.
Beyond the major-party contenders, more than 20 other candidates have officially filed paperwork with the Florida Division of Elections, representing Republicans, Democrats, independents, and third parties. These include names such as Shea Cruel, Jim Holcomb, John Joseph Mercadante, Robert Edward “Bobby” Williams Jr., Moliere Dimanche, Andrea Lynn Klink, and Libertarian candidate Scott Jewett.
Speculation also continues around possible entrants. Florida first lady Casey DeSantis has been widely floated as a potential Republican candidate, though she has not confirmed her intentions.
What Happens Next