In the Week 3 edition of “Thursday Night Football,” the Buffalo Bills play host to the division rival Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo is off to a 2-0 start after its rollicking comeback win over the Ravens and a shellacking of the Jets. The Bills are looking to stake out an early claim for the top spot in the AFC, and given the way they’re playing, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they eventually wound up with the No. 1 seed by year’s end.
The Dolphins are in essentially the exact opposite position. They are 0-2 after a blowout loss to the Colts and a closer defeat at the hands of the Patriots. The vibes have been rancid for months, and given the way they’re playing, it wouldn’t be a surprise if significant changes happened soon if things don’t change for the better, and do so quickly.
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Will the Bills stay unbeaten, or will the Dolphins get on the board with their first win of the year? We’ll find out soon enough. But before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Dolphins vs. Bills live
Date: Thursday, Sept. 18 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Stream: Amazon Prime
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -12.5; O/U 49.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet NFL Week 3 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.
When the Dolphins have the ball
The Dolphins enter this game battling multiple injuries on offense. Right tackle Austin Jackson is on injured reserve. Darren Waller remains out despite getting in a full week of limited practices. And Jaylen Waddle is questionable with a shoulder issue. Running back Jaylen Wright is set to make his season debut, but it remains to be seen how much he’ll play behind De’Von Achane.
Miami did thankfully bounce back last weekend with a stronger offensive performance (358 total yards, 27 points) than it had in its disastrous Week 1 loss to the Colts (211 yards, 8 points). The final line is somewhat misleading, though, as they got seven of their points from a 74-yard Malik Washington punt return. The offense itself really only put up 20 against New England’s pedestrian defense.
The Dolphins went 4 of 10 on third down and 0 of 2 on fourth down against New England, and they only made two trips to the red zone all game. (And only one turned into a touchdown. They were inefficient running the ball and Tua Tagovailoa continued to take sacks. He’s already been dropped eight times in two games. Miami did at least create some more explosives but this still doesn’t quite look like the unit that was torching the league early in Mike McDaniel’s tenure as head coach.
The Bills, meanwhile, bounced back from their disastrous defensive showing against the Ravens in Week 1 to totally shut down the Jets, who had looked like world-beaters in their opener against the Steelers. Buffalo held New York to 154 total yards and 11 points, and did not allow a single third-down conversion (0 of 11) last Sunday.
The Bills played that game without Ed Oliver and will be without him again on Thursday. They also won’t have Matt Milano and could be down Taron Johnson, Shaq Thompson and/or Cam Lewis, all of whom are listed as questionable. Buffalo’s injuries give Miami a chance to get things going in a way that it hasn’t yet so far this season.
Second-level absences play into the Dolphins’ hands, given that they like to attack the intermediate areas of the field with crossing routes and timing patterns. Milano’s absence, in particular, feels huge in this regard. If Johnson, Buffalo’s slot corner, can’t go, that will be big as well. If Waddle misses, though, we could see Christian Benford traveling with Tyreek Hill and trying to force the Dolphins to funnel more of their passing game to the short areas of the field, betting that they can rally to the ball to tackle guys like Achane and Washington.
But Miami’s offensive line also still feels like a major question mark here, and if the Bills’ defensive front plays like it did against the Jets, then Tagovailoa could be under considerably pressure and Achane could find running room difficult to access. As always, strong performances up front is imperative for the Dolphins, who are highly susceptible to having their day ruined by porous play from the offensive line.
When the Bills have the ball
Buffalo’s offense is a machine led by one of the best players in football. This Miami defense is a sieve that has been torn apart by Daniel Jones and Drake Maye, who play similar styles to Josh Allen but aren’t as good as he is at any of the things they do. This is going to be a very long day at the office for the Dolphins, as Allen is going to tear them apart all night long.
Allen is 47 of 71 for 542 yards and two scores through the air to date, but he’s also rushed 20 times for 89 yards and an additional two touchdowns. The Dolphins allowed Jones to rush seven times for 26 yards and two touchdowns, and Maye to rush 10 times for 31 yards and a touchdown.
They can’t seem to get their pass rush all the way home, and Allen is better than almost anyone in the league at avoiding sacks — and at turning possible sacks into big plays. Even if the Dolphins manage to get pressure here (which is no guarantee against Buffalo’s strong offensive line), it doesn’t feel like they have the juice to limit what the Bills want to do in the dropback game because Allen will turn those situations into advantages anyway.
And the Dolphins’ secondary is now in even more dire straits than it was coming into the season. Not only are Kader Kohou and Artie Burns on injured reserve, but Storm Duck and Ifeatu Melifonwu are out for this game after not practicing all week. Buffalo’s wide receivers and tight ends are going to have space to operate all night long, and we know that Allen is going to find them whenever they’re open, no matter where they are on the field.
Miami has also given up at least 122 rushing yards in each of its two games so far this year, and the Bills’ powerful offensive line cleared the way for an incredible 224 yards on the ground last week against the Jets. James Cook is off to a great start with 176 yards on 34 carries, along with a league-high three rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins don’t feel like they have the horses to stop Buffalo from running the ball, either, even if the front is the relative strength of their defense.
Prediction
Miami feels like a team that is just circling the drain and waiting for someone to pull the plug. The Bills are in position to do just that, and with the Dolphins traveling up north on a short week, the conditions are not right for them to turn things around. The Bills are going to win, and win big, and there might be some major changes in the offing for Miami during the mini-bye ahead of Week 4.