The AFC South has been owned by the Houston Texans the last two years, but the division appears to be up for grabs in 2025 as the aforementioned Texans (0-2) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) Sunday.
A loss by C.J. Stroud and the Texans could drop them three games behind the Colts by the end of the day Sunday. A loss will also mean Houston’s offensive line has been further exposed and their quarterback further rattled by his lack of protection.
Jacksonville blasted Carolina in Week 1 but coughed up a lead in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati last Sunday ultimately losing 31-27. Liam Cohen has gotten the running game going with the Jags, but Trevor Lawrence is still not where the franchise needs him to be if they are to make a move north in the standings this season.
Lets dive into this Week 3 AFC South matchup between the Texans and the Jaguars and possibly find a couple of sweats along the way.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Game Details and How to watch the Houston Texans at the Jacksonville Jaguars live Sunday
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Time: 1:00PM EST
Site: EverBank Stadium
City: Jacksonville, FL
Network/Streaming: CBS
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Game odds for the Texans at the Jaguars
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Texans (+102), Jaguars (-122)
Spread: Jaguars -1.5
Total: 44.5 points
This game opened at Jaguars -1.5 with the Game Total set at 43.0.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Quarterback Matchup for Houston at Jacksonville
Texans Starting QB: C.J. Stroud
Last Game: 9/15 vs. Tampa Bay – 13-24 (54.2%), 207yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, Sacked 3 times, 4 carries for 27yds
Season: 2GP, 32-51 (62.7%), 395yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, Sacked 6 times, 9 carries for 59yds
Jaguars Starting QB: Trevor Lawrence
Last Game: 9/14 at Cincinnati – 24-42 (57.1%), 271yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, Sacked 1 time, 2 carries for 4yds
Season: 2GP, 43-73 (58.9%), 449yds, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, Sacked 1 time, 6 carries for 16yds
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars team stats, betting trends
The Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against AFC South opponents
The Jaguars have covered the number in their last 3 games against AFC South teams
Each of the last 3 games between the Texans and the Jaguars have stayed under the Total
Texans Player Injuries
WR Christian Kirk (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game although DeMeco Ryans has stated he expects the wideout to make his season debut Sunday
C Jake Andrews (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
WR Braxton Berrios (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game although DeMeco Ryans has stated he expects the wideout to be available Sunday
Jaguars Player Injuries
WR Brian Thomas Jr. (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
CB Jarrian Jones (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
G Wyatt Milum (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
CB Montaric Brown (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
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Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick): C.J. Stroud passing yards (over), C.J. Stroud completions (over), and Nico Collins receiving yards (over)*
At first glance, it might look like Jacksonville’s defense has turned into a Top 10 unit. They currently sit high in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. But context matters. That ranking is heavily inflated by their Week 1 matchup against Carolina’s anemic offense.
The very next week told a different story. After Joe Burrow went down, Jake Browning threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Joe Mixon added 71 rushing yards and a score. That’s not exactly the profile of a shutdown defense.
Which brings us to C.J. Stroud. This feels like a prime get-right spot for him. His passing yard props and completion props are worth a serious look, especially against a secondary that just let Ja’Marr Chase feast. Chase went off for 14 catches and 165 yards, showing that Jacksonville can absolutely be exploited by elite pass-catchers.
Enter Nico Collins. Given how Chase carved them up, Collins could be in line for a big day. His receiving yard props look appealing in this matchup, and he profiles as the clear beneficiary if Stroud airs it out.
Plays to Consider:
C.J. Stroud passing yards (over)
C.J. Stroud completions (over)
Nico Collins receiving yards (over)
*Player props not yet posted as of publication
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Texans and the Jaguars:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Jacksonville Jaguars at -1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the under on the Game Total of 43.0.
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● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)