By Martha McHardy

Copyright newsweek

Zohran Mamdani’s bid to take on former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race is faltering, with new polling showing his support collapsing in a head-to-head matchup.The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows that while Mamdani holds a clear edge in a crowded New York City mayoral field, leading Cuomo 46 percent to 24 percent in a four-way race, the numbers tighten dramatically in a two-way matchup, where Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo shrinks to 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters—raising doubts about his staying power in a head-to-head contest.Among registered voters, Cuomo leads Mamdani in a two-way race, with 46 percent to his opponent’s 45 percent.Newsweek has contacted the Mamdani and Cuomo campaigns for comment via email.Why It MattersMamdani sent political shock waves across New York in June when he defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Since then, some polls have shown the Queens assemblymember way ahead of his opponents, with Mamdani leading among almost all demographics. But the latest numbers suggest Cuomo retains a strong base of support and could mount a comeback if the race narrows.President Donald Trump, who has called Mamdani a “communist lunatic,” has said that he would like to see two of the three other main candidates—New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Republican Curtis Sliwa as well as Cuomo—step aside to solidify the anti-Mamdani vote.What To KnowCuomo and Mamdani are close in the head-to-head, but among registered voters not initially committed in the four-way, Cuomo wins big, 62 percent to 11 percent. That suggests undecideds and supporters of Adams or Sliwa lean heavily toward Cuomo if forced to choose.Against Adams, however, Mamdani dominates with likely voters. In a two-way matchup, he wins 55 percent to 36 percent.The survey was conducted among 1,284 likely voters in New York City from September 2 to 6. The margin of error is about plus or minus 3.6 percentage points among likely voters and 3.4 percentage points among registered voters.Don Levy, SRI’s (Siena Research Institute) director, said: “The big ‘if’ is what would happen if both Sliwa and Adams were to drop out of the race and make it a two-person showdown. Cuomo would capture the vast majority of both Adams’ and Sliwa’s current support and win a majority of voters over forty-five. Mamdani’s overwhelming 22-point lead would shrink to four points. At present, Cuomo would need both Adams and Sliwa to drop out in order to close the gap.””A lot could change in this race, if Adams and/or Sliwa drop out, or Mamdani could continue to ride his support among young voters and voters concerned about economic issues all the way to Gracie Mansion.”The New York Times had reported that advisers to Trump had discussed offering positions to Adams or Sliwa to narrow it down to a two-person race and give Cuomo a better chance at winning the general election.Following the report, Adams rejected calls to withdraw. “I am running for reelection,” Adams said. “I am in this race, and I’m the only one that can beat Mamdani.”Sliwa has also has made clear he would stay in the race. In early July, he told Bloomberg he wouldn’t quit unless “hit by a Mack truck.”In mid-July, Cuomo said that he was staying in the New York City mayor’s race despite his primary loss. He did leave the door open to stepping aside under specific conditions. The former governor accepted a proposal for a mid-September poll to determine which non-Mamdani candidate is strongest.”This is why I have accepted the proposal…that, in mid-September, we will determine which candidate is strongest against Mamdani and all other candidates will stand down,” Cuomo said.If Cuomo, Adams and Sliwa all choose to stay in the race, this would most likely benefit Mamdani, Alvin Tillery, founder of the Alliance for Black Equality, told Newsweek.”Honestly, both Cuomo and Adams staying in the race is a dream scenario for Mamdani,” Tillery said.According to the poll, Mamdani remains the most popular candidate of the four, with 49 percent having a favorable opinion and 35 percent, an unfavorable one. But doubts remain about his governing ability—only 24 percent say he would do the job “very well,” while 26 percent say “not at all well.”But respondents consider Mamdani to be the best to tackle such issues as housing and affordability (43 and 44 percent, respectively) as well as taxes and spending (36 percent). Cuomo, however, edges him on crime (31 against 26 percent), the most important concern.What Happens NextThe New York City mayoral election is scheduled to take place on November 4