The Phoenix Mercury were the only home team to lose Game 1 in the first round this postseason, falling 76-69 in overtime to the New York Liberty on Sunday. Will the defending champion Liberty clinch a trip to the semifinals on Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN or can the Mercury force a winner-take-all Game 3?
If you’re a fan of WNBA betting and are thinking of placing a wager on Wednesday’s Mercury vs. Liberty matchup, you should first see what WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have locked in for this game.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for Phoenix vs. New York:
Mercury vs. Liberty picks:
Mercury +2.5
Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 points
Mercury +2.5
Despite uncharacteristically poor games from several starters—including Monique Akoa Makani, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas who combined for 11-for-46 shooting—Phoenix still took New York to overtime in Game 1.
While the Mercury have to travel for Game 2, they should get much better shooting from their stars this time around. On top of that, Breanna Stewart exited with a knee injury and looks unlikely to suit up for the Liberty in Game 2. Take Phoenix to keep it close, and potentially even win and bring the series back to their home court.
Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 points
Cloud was the leading scorer in Game 1, and for anyone who’s followed her career, it’s no surprise. She’s stepped up in the scoring department time and time again in postseason play. Even though her career scoring average in the regular season is 8.8, her playoff mark is over 11.
That includes marks of 11.7 in the regular season and 20.5 in the playoffs over the previous three seasons. With Stewart’s health in doubt, there should be more usage opening up for New York as well, so take Cloud to continue to step up her scoring in postseason play.