By Igor Patrick

Copyright scmp

Chinese imports supported 5.2 million jobs in Brazil, more than twice the number tied to exports to China, highlighting both the depth of the relationship and the risks of relying on a single partner, according to a comprehensive study released on Wednesday by the China-Brazil Business Council.
The report, produced with the country’s Development, Industry, Trade and Services Ministry, shows how bilateral commerce has grown nearly fivefold in the past two decades and now shapes not just trade flows but employment, wages and social patterns across the country. It found that while export-related roles paid higher salaries, the impact of imports reached far deeper into Brazilian companies and communities.
Numbers from 2024 underlined the scale of the relationship. China accounted for 28 per cent of Brazilian exports and 24 per cent of its imports. Over the past decade, commerce with Beijing produced a surplus of US$276 billion for Brazil, equal to 51 per cent of its global trade surplus in the same period.
By comparison, trade with the United States and the European Union left Brazil with a combined deficit of US$224 billion.
That China surplus, however, was concentrated in very few hands, according to the study. It showed 80 per cent of Brazilian sales to China in 2024 as consisting of soybeans, iron ore and oil, and that fewer than 3,000 companies were responsible for those exports.
Tulio Cariello, director of research at the business group, said this concentration left the country exposed. “It does not matter if it is soybeans or machines,” he said. “The problem is relying on too few products and too few markets.”

Cariello, one of the study’s authors, added that it was a mistake to see the commodities sector as backward or devoid of innovation. He pointed to decades of research in agriculture and mining, from adapting soybeans to tropical soils to engineering deepwater oil rigs and designing cleaner iron-ore briquettes.
He said Chinese demand had been a catalyst for such advances, pushing Brazilian firms to expand productivity and invest in sustainability.
Massive number of firms buy Chinese goods
While exports remained narrowly focused, imports told a different story according to the study.
More than 40,000 Brazilian firms bought goods from China last year, nearly 15 times the number that imported from other South American countries.
Imports ranged from electronics and machinery to fertilisers and industrial chemicals, and many Brazilian industries, including agribusiness, depended heavily on these supplies.
Cariello said that reliance created vulnerabilities of its own, noting that fertilisers, most of which are imported, were critical to Brazil’s crop yields.
“Any disruption in Chinese supply chains has a direct impact on Brazilian production,” he said, recalling the shortages exposed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Council analyst Camila Amigo said China’s impact on Brazil’s economy could be seen in the labour market. She said the surge in import-linked employment did not mean Brazil had deliberately shifted towards becoming a service economy.
She said that the surge in import-linked employment was not the result of any strategic shift in Brazil’s economic model, but rather a circumstance arising from how companies depend on imported supplies.
“The challenge is how to turn those jobs into support for domestic industry rather than only for foreign goods,” she said.

“It was not a deliberate strategy, it was a circumstance,” she said. “The challenge is how to turn those jobs into support for domestic industry rather than only for foreign goods.”
Brazil, she added, had a window to benefit from supply chains that were evolving as Chinese manufacturers invested abroad. The country, she said, could strengthen its position as a regional hub if it linked re-industrialisation efforts with opportunities created by industries relocating.
The report also illustrated how narrow Brazil’s export base to China remained when compared with other markets. The fewer than 3,000 Brazilian companies exporting to China last year compares to nearly 10,000 selling to the United States and more than 11,000 to the Mercosur bloc. Moreover, most firms dealing with China were large corporations, although smaller exporters had expanded their presence more rapidly in recent years.
A similar pattern appeared in sales. Eighty per cent of Brazil’s exports to China last year came from soybeans, iron ore and oil, although the list of products expanded from 673 categories in 1997 to 2,589 last year, showing gradual diversification. Meat, pulp and coffee gained ground, alongside a small but growing share of manufactured goods.
On the other side of the trade ledger, Brazil’s purchases from China spanned a much wider array of products. The report counted 6,914 import categories in 2024, almost all manufactured. Electronics, vehicles, textiles, pharmaceuticals and industrial inputs filled customs records, with few single items dominating the list.
Trade and Brazil’s jobs picture
The jobs picture reflected that imbalance. Import-linked positions in Brazil grew by 55 per cent between 2008 and 2022, while export-linked roles increased by 62 per cent in the same period but from a smaller base. Salaries remained higher in export-linked jobs, averaging 4,917 reais (US$909) a month, compared with 4,430 reais in roles associated with imports.
Labour data also revealed persistent social gaps. When the authors examined the workforce in companies trading with China, they found that women represented 29 per cent of staff in export-oriented firms and 34.4 per cent in those focused on imports. Their wages lagged behind men’s by about 30 per cent.
Black workers accounted for around 44 per cent of employees in both groups but earned about 40 per cent less than white colleagues. The report said some progress had been made in narrowing disparities, especially in firms linked to imports, but inequities persisted.
Cariello said re-industrialisation is crucial if Brazil wants to reduce the risks of over-reliance on imports. He argued that foreign investment would be essential to that process.
“No country has developed its industry without foreign investment,” he said. “China itself once followed that path.”

He added that Brazil had ranked relatively well among destinations for overseas investment in recent years, although bottlenecks such as a complex tax system and weak logistics continued to hold back competitiveness.
Amigo said new opportunities could arise in areas linked to energy transition.
She cited minerals such as copper, lithium and manganese, as well as agricultural products such as maize and fruit, that had recently gained access to the Chinese market. She added that greater emphasis on traceability and sustainability could also give Brazilian firms a competitive edge.
Trade flows confirmed the depth of the connection. In 2024, China bought 73 per cent of Brazil’s soybeans, 67 per cent of its iron ore and 44 per cent of its crude oil. It also purchased about half of Brazil’s beef and cotton exports. On the import side, Brazil’s purchases from China grew at an average annual pace of 21 per cent since 2000.
The strains of competition were also clear. Cariello said that Brazilian steelmakers and other industrial firms had been undercut by Chinese prices, forcing some to sell themselves to Chinese buyers. He said the example showed how trade and investment had become intertwined.
Amigo said the debate for Brazil was whether it should try to insert itself into the global chains shaped by China and take advantage of industries that were relocating. She added that the country could position itself as an industrial hub for the region and potentially export from there to the rest of South America.
“The point is to understand which parts of these chains make sense for the Brazilian economy and how to use them to support re-industrialisation,” she said.