By Anushka Asthana

Copyright channel4

When I asked senior British officials why they chose Donald Trump as the first-ever US president to get invited for a second state visit to the UK, they gave the pragmatic answer.

His non-consecutive terms mean that this is a new administration, and a state visit is an excellent way to build ties.

After all, “anyone who matters” from the White House will be at the state banquet in St George’s Hall, said one source, alongside British ministers. And British diplomats have also been inside the White House, discussing policy objectives across critical sectors such as energy, defence and technology.

Which is undoubtedly all true – but there is more to the reason why Trump has been marked out for this particularly unique invitation.

Speaking to current and former diplomats – they point out two things. First, that diplomacy means working out how to best please the other side – and with Trump – flattery can work. But it is also about Downing Street’s nervousness about the character of the US President.

Economic influence

As one figure put it to me, there is a risk that he will make decisions that could massively impact Britain’s fortunes.

“The last thing they want is something in Washington that can damage our economy,” they said, before admitting: “but, of course, it sticks in the throat for many in Whitehall that this is the guy who gets two state visits.”

On the latter point, they argue that the economic benefits (or at least a safety net against the worst economic pain) is already being felt.

While most of the world is facing the sharp end of Trump’s tariffs, the UK was the first to hammer out a deal.

That has cut tariffs on exports of cars, on which tens of thousands of jobs depend (with hope around steel and aluminium).

Sources point out that this government’s fortunes rely heavily on achieving an upturn in economic growth that could become impossible without maintaining a good relationship with the US.

That said, it is not a comprehensive deal and who knows where Trump will go next.

And, after European leaders offered little short of sycophancy when they accompanied Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into the White House – except perhaps the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz – there has been no great breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The most optimistic readout would be that Trump has shifted significantly from the humiliation he poured on Zelenskyy in February, but it has not been solved. And, worse, there was the spectacle of Trump’s behaviour with regard to India Prime Minister Narendra Modi, arguably pushing the leader into the arms of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping of China.

Political support

Meanwhile, there is another challenge for Sir Keir Starmer.

I’m told that the day after Trump survived an attempted assassination, the new UK prime minister called him to offer the president-elect his thoughts.

Trump was said to have shaken that subject off and instead jumped into praising Starmer’s massive election win. Trump loves winners, said the person familiar with the call.

So what now that Starmer is in such dire straits – with the fallout of Lord Peter Mandelson’s sacking haunting him? Surely Trump is being filled in on all the gory detail by his friend Nigel Farage.

And on top of that are the political differences, as Starmer’s own team members prepare to attend a major progressive conference in London that will bring US Democrats to the city.

Moreover, there is the challenge of getting the balance right. Because Trump – while enjoying flattery – is also thought to enjoy clashing with strong-men like him.

Some think: ‘the more you suck up to him, the more he kicks you around’.

So Starmer has a balance to strike.

No doubt Trump will love the pageantry of the state visit and not want anything to rock this particular boat.

But those close to Starmer know that when it comes to Trump, they can’t predict how things will go.

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