By Dan Kitwood,William Atkinson

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Danny Kruger’s defection to Reform is a body blow for Kemi Badenoch’s failing project. But Nigel Farage doesn’t have the answers either, says William Atkinson

The last Conservative has left the building. Is it time to turn out the lights? That is what ambitious, talented and intelligent Conservatives are thinking following Danny Kruger’s defection to Reform UK on Monday. After 350-odd years of intermittent service to the nation, is it time to admit that the Tory race is run?

Kruger is qualitatively different to other Conservative turncoats. Not only is he a sitting MP – unlike Nadine Dorries, Jake Berry or Maria Caulfield – but a genuine intellectual in what John Stuart Mill long ago dismissed as “the stupid party”. He served as David Cameron’s speech writer, Boris Johnson’s political secretary and Robert Jenrick’s campaign manager. His recent book Covenant is as eloquent and essential a statement as what 21st century conservatism should look like as you’ll find; he continues to lead the fight against assisted dying in parliament.

This is not only a symbolic blow to Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives but a fundamental one – a loss from the party of one of its leading lights. His reasons for quitting couldn’t be clearer. “I’m leaving because I think the party is over,” he said. He hoped the Tories “would learn the obvious lesson” after last year’s defeat. The “old ways don’t work”; “real change is needed”. But instead, Badenoch has provided “a year of stasis and drift”, “sham unity” and a lack of “anything bold or controversial”. The polls speak for themselves: the Tories are on the verge of being fourth and Nigel Farage is ascendant.

Even if Kruger couches his decision in high principle, political realities apply for him as readily as any other Tory MP. So rapid has Nigel Farage’s advance been that Reform are now predicted to take Kruger’s East Wiltshire seat, despite having only come fourth last July. That “more and more people” are “deserting the party that failed” is, for Kruger, “a cause of regret for those of us who have put our trust in the Conservative Party for so long”. But he is not despairing. He believes the conservative flame has passed to a new torch “already brighter than the one it is replacing” – Reform UK.

Jen-regrets? I’ve had a few

For those right-wing Tories who have been umming and erring about taking the Farage shilling, Kruger’s unwillingness to wait for a second Jenrick leadership bid is a clarifying moment. If Jenrick’s own campaign manager doesn’t think a victory is possible, why should they? Unless this is some act of 4D chess designed to aid a future alliance between the parties, many will think to follow Kruger’s example: get out now, before Badenoch sinks even further and the Faragist drawbridge is pulled up. The Tories have passed beyond the event horizon. Escape is impossible. The game is up.

Having attended Reform’s conference, I came away believing that they are a dead end: a depressing collection of pubescent councillors, Z-list celebs, aging culture warriors and Farage groupies, unserious about Britain’s problems

That Badenoch is a dud is not in doubt – as George Orwell said, a little unfairly, of Stanley Baldwin, she is just a hole in the air. But for those of us reeling from Kruger’s decision, there are good reasons to pause before bailing out to HMS Reform. Having attended Reform’s conference, I came away believing that they are a dead end: a depressing collection of pubescent councillors, Z-list celebs, aging culture warriors and Farage groupies, unserious about Britain’s problems. But Kruger must have seen something I did not. He is a far more thoughtful and committed exponent of conservatism than I could ever be.

If Kruger is successful in shaping Reform into a viable entity for office as their new head of ‘preparing for government’, who will I be to scoff? But the core of my conservatism is scepticism; as much as Kruger might be a lodestar, even he can’t rid me of the evidence of my own eyes.

William Atkinson is assistant content editor at The Spectator