By Michael T. Nietzel,Senior Contributor

Copyright forbes

In 2022, only 44% of surveyed high school students said they expected to earn a bachelor’s degree—down sharply from the 72% with that expectation in 2002.

High school students’ expectations for earning a college degree have plunged over the past 20 years, according to a new research brief from the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Education, entitled “Future Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years for Both First-Generation and Continuing Generation Students.”

Using data from the National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program, the data were drawn from surveys of students during their freshman or sophomore years of high school that asked about their high school or postsecondary expectations.

In 2022, only 44% of the students surveyed said they expected to earn a bachelor’s degree—down sharply from 72% in 2002, marking a 20-year decline that signals growing doubts among young people about their educational futures. It also raises serious concerns about long-term college access, economic mobility, workforce readiness, and the nation’s competitive prospects.

In addition, the report found large disparities by parental education level. In 2002, 60% of first-generation students (i.e., those whose parents had only a high school diploma) aspired to earn a bachelor’s degree. But by 2022, that percentage had fallen almost in half, to just 33%. Among students with at least one parent holding a bachelor’s degree, college aspirations also declined dramatically, dropping from 83% in 2002 to 53% in 2022.

“The decline in college aspirations among first-generation students is deeply concerning,” said Kimberly Jones, president of the Council for Opportunity in Education in a news release. “These students have long faced systemic barriers to higher education, and this data underscores the urgent need for renewed investment in outreach, support, and affordability—including through programs like TRIO and the Pell Grant. We must ensure that every student, regardless of background, can envision a future that includes college and has the resources to make it a reality.”

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The report reflects an additional problem. The data upon which it relied from the longitudinal surveys conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics will no longer be collected, a major casualty of the Trump administration’s decision to fire the vast majority of NCES employees earlier this year. The NCES collects and analyzes large datasets on many aspects of education. It’s been a highly valuable resource for researchers and policy makers alike, but the decimation of its staff has put future data collection at risk, a setback that will translate into reduced measures of accountability.

“The loss of the longitudinal surveys program and the staff supporting those programs is a great loss to the education community,” said Sean Simone, director of the Pell Institute and the lead author of the report. “Without the continuation of these programs, it will be much harder to track the progress of high school, first-generation, and college students and to learn how to improve education outcomes.”

The decline in students’ college aspirations is somewhat inconsistent with what most of their parents continue to believe. According to a recent survey conducted by Gallup and the Lumina Foundation, the majority of American parents still want their children to attend college. Among U.S. parents with a child younger than 18, 59% say they would prefer their child attend college right after high school, with 40% indicating their first option is for their child to enroll in a four-year college or university and 19% opting for them to go to a two-year or community college.

The recent narrative that a college education may not be necessary for individual success and it therefore not worth the cost seems to be having its largest effect on a young, impressionable audience. Despite abundant research demonstrating that completing a college degree is associated with a host of long-term economic and other personal benefits, young people may be particularly susceptible to countervailing messages that postsecondary education is an unnecessary investment of their time and money.

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