By Eric Garcia

Copyright independent

Going into the second week of the government shutdown, Democrats are emboldened.

Even though they have not been able to get an extension of the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, that they want, they have shifted the conversation to health care.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has held press conferences three days in a row while he rebuffs Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ overtures to debate on the House floor. And after being accused of fecklessness and impotence for much of the year, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seems willing to play hardball with Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

“When Johnson has to say, ‘We need to fix health care,’ you know he’s under some duress,” Schumer told reporters during a gaggle with reporters Wednesday.

Even MAGA firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said the House needs to come up with a plan before premiums double if the tax credits are not extended.

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) also threw down the gauntlet and challenged Republicans to take up any deal the Senate would strike to extend the subsidies and said Republicans would pay a price.

“It’s an off-year election, the economy is not getting better, and now you’re going to be known as being obstructionist to the point where premiums increase,” Gallego told The Independent. “If you want to be that Republican that walks down the plank for Johnson? Good luck.”

Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn) said Democrats see less of a reason to back down now.

“I think, if anything, we’re like, feeling more strong that this is a very important fight for us to be making,” she told The Independent. “

By contrast, Republicans want to force Democrats back to the negotiating table. They don’t have a lot to offer them. Senate Republicans can’t guarantee Johnson will put the bill on the floor. As Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said “Not a lot of guarantees around this place are there?”

Democrats might think they have a winning issue that could boost them next year. But, to borrow from Ted Lasso, the American public has the memory of a goldfish. Just look at history.

In 2013, a handful of hellraising conservatives in the House, accompanied by Ted Cruz in the Senate, sought to defund the Affordable Care Act by shutting down the government. Cruz delivered a faux filibuster and read Green Eggs & Ham on the Senate floor. When The Independent asked Cruz last week why Democrats didn’t read any Dr. Seuss, he said “lack of creativity.”

The outcome was a disaster. The ACA was not defunded, Republicans shouldered the blame and then-speaker John Boehner quit two years later.

But twelve months later, Republicans swept the midterms. They flipped nine Senate seats and Republicans held the House and governorships across the country. That virtually wiped out the Democratic bench.

Cut to January 2018. During Trump’s first presidency, Democrats held out on a spending bill to provide relief for recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which prevented undocumented immigrants who arrived in the country as children from being deported. Three days later, Democrats folded.

What price did Democrats pay in November? Absolutely none. A few months later, they flipped the House of Representatives. While they lost Senate seats in Florida, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, they flipped others in the swing states of Nevada and Arizona, beginning Arizona’s trajectory as a purple state.

How about the shutdown that happened a few weeks later, when Trump told Schumer “I am proud to shut down the government for border security?” That shutdown would last 35 days, Trump would not get the money for his border wall.

Well, a ton changed between then and 2020, between Trump’s first impeachment and a pandemic. While Democrats held the House, they would lose seats in swing districts, Joe Biden would barely win the presidency and they failed to flip seats in Iowa, North Carolina and Maine.

This is not to say that Republicans are guaranteed to hold the House and Senate. To the contrary, the generic ballot shows Democrats leading in the buildup to the 2026 midterms.

Republicans risk losing two big races in Maine and North Carolina and Texas looks wobbly. And, as Inside Washington wrote on Monday, Republicans risk losing the governorship in Virginia as Abigail Spanberger has a wide lead over Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

“My own just travels around Virginia thus far, people seem to know who’s responsible for it, and I think that could likely help Abigail,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a former governor himself, told The Independent.

But Democrats are lucky that race is happens next month. But even if the government opens next month, so much can happen in a year.

This does not mean Republicans can come out unscathed. If Democrats fold and Republicans can pass a continuing resolution before time runs out and premiums begin to spike, voters will blame Republicans.

But don’t expect them to remember Democrats voted against keeping the government open.