After the Eagles and Bills both went down in Week 5, every NFL team has at least one loss entering Week 6.
In addition to the Broncos’ comeback win over the Eagles in Philly and the Patriots’ road upset of Buffalo on SNF, Week 5 delivered several other substantial upsets, including the 49ers’ win over the Rams, the Cardinals’ win over the Titans and the Jaguars’ dramatic stunner over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
Will Week 6 be kinder to the favorites, or is the the point in the season when every game becomes impossible to predict?
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 39-39
Week 1: 7-9
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 6-10
Week 5: 8-6
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
Eagles (-7) at Giants — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Eagles -7
After stunning the Chargers at home in Jaxson Dart’s debut, the Giants (1-4) suffered an ugly loss last Sunday, turning the ball over five times to give New Orleans its first win of the season.
Coming off of a disappointing home loss to the Broncos, the Eagles (4-1) should be able to lean on the ground game in this one. The Giants D is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, and a year ago, former New York star Saquon Barkley torched Big Blue for 176 yards on just 17 carries in his only appearance vs. his former team. I expect this week to mark his 2025 breakout following a slow start.
Broncos (-7.5) at Jets — 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
Pick: Broncos -7.5
The Broncos (3-2) are coming off their best performance of the season in a comeback win over Philly on the road. The Jets (0-5), on the other hand, are the NFL’s only winless team after giving up 37 points and 416 yards of offense (236 passing and 180 rushing) in last Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys.
Oversimplifying (seemingly) one-sided matchups proved costly several times last weekend, but right now, the Jets are not nearly good enough defensively for me to back them against a quality opponent like the Broncos.
*Note: Broncos-Jets is taking place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London
Chargers (-4.5) at Dolphins — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Dolphins +4.5
The Dolphins (1-4) run D is easily the league’s worst, allowing 174 yards per game on the ground. But I’m not convinced the Chargers (3-2) — who scored 28 total points against the Giants and Commanders the last two weeks — will be able to exploit that weakness, especially if they’re once again without starting tackle Joe Alt and guard Mekhi Becton.
I don’t expect L.A. to lose this game, but I’m not quite willing to take it to cover, either.
Patriots (-3.5) at Saints — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Patriots -3.5
I understand why some bettors might be fading the Pats (3-2) this weekend after their thrilling road win over the Bills last Sunday night. Personally, though, I have no qualms about taking the Patriots to take care of the Saints (1-4) on the road.
New Orleans would likely still be winless if the Giants had just turned it over 3 or 4 times (instead of 5) last Sunday, and I don’t see Spencer Rattler outdueling Drake Maye.
Cardinals at Colts (-7) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Cardinals +7
The Colts (4-1) are second in the league in scoring offense and third in scoring defense, and three of their four wins were by at least 21 points. For some reason, though, I think the Cardinals (2-3) will be able to hang after a bizarre home loss to the Titans in Week 5.
Arizona has an underrated defense, thanks in large part to a front seven that is allowing just 92.4 yards per game. If the Cardinals can contain Jonathan Taylor — which is admittedly easier said than done — I think they can keep this one close after losing three games in a row by a total of just six points.
Browns at Steelers (-4.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Steelers -5.5
Most weeks this season, I’m going to have a hard time laying the points with Cleveland’s (1-4) opponent. I’m far from bullish on the Browns offense, but this defense is good enough to keep this team in games — especially if QB Dillon Gabriel can build on his solid debut and fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins continues to run the ball effectively.
This is a brutal spot on the schedule for Cleveland, though. With the Browns coming off a tough loss to Minnesota in London and the Steelers (3-1) fresh off a bye — and set to potentially welcome back CB Joey Porter Jr. and pass rusher Alex Highsmith — I’m going with Pittsburgh to cover (barely) at home.
Cowboys (-3.5) at Panthers — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Panthers +3
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (2-2-1) have been on fire the last two weeks, with seven total touchdowns and zero interceptions in a tie vs. the Packers and a blowout win over the Jets. In Week 6, he faces a 2-3 Carolina team that has looked awful at times, but has also had its moments, particularly on defense in a pair of upset wins at home over the Falcons and Dolphins.
Assuming Bryce Young can avoid turnovers — which is no sure thing with a player who’s already thrown four picks and lost three fumbles — Carolina should be able to keep this one close. Another key factor in this one will be how Panthers RB Rico Dowdle performs against his old team after exploding for 234 total yards on 26 touches vs. Miami last week.
Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Seahawks -1.5
Seattle’s (3-2) in a tough spot, making a long trip east after a close loss to Tampa Bay at home last Sunday night.
Still, I like the Seahawks — who struggled to slow down Tampa Bay last Sunday, but could welcome back DE DeMarcus Lawrence, CB Devon Witherspoon and/or safety Julian Love this weekend — against a 4-1 Jaguars team coming off back-to-back close wins in which Jacksonville scored non-offensive touchdowns.
If nothing else, Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense should have a chance to win a shootout against a Jags D that has allowed at least 300 yards passing in three of the last four weeks.
This is a good place to mention that the total in this game is currently sitting at just 47.5.
Rams (-7.5) at Ravens — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Rams -7.5
This banged-up version of the Ravens (1-4) defense is offering little resistance, regardless of the opponent, right now.
If Lamar Jackson is once again on the sidelines, I expect another double-digit loss by Baltimore. Things should turn around for the preseason AFC North favorites following their Week 7 bye. For now, though, fading the Ravens against the 3-2 Rams is the way to go.
Titans at Raiders (-4.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Titans +4.5
We shouldn’t overreact to the fortunate (OK, fluky) series of events that led to the Titans’ (1-4) first win of the year last Sunday in Arizona. At the same time, it’s hard to shake the feeling that the lightbulb might have gone off for Cam Ward and Co. at some point during that second half.
Ward and WR Calvin Ridley both showed enough for me to trust them to — at minimum keep Sunday’s game vs. the 1-4 Raiders close.
Las Vegas is dealing with a number of issues, including brutal decision-making by Geno Smith (he’s thrown nine picks, including five the last two weeks) and poor pass protection (Smith has been sacked 16 times) by the O-line. The Raiders D has forced just four turnovers in five games, and it has only recorded eight sacks.
Bengals at Packers (-14) — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bengals +14
Let’s start by noting that after Cincinnati (2-3) acquired Joe Flacco this week, the line moved from Packers -14.5 to Packers -14. Coming off the bye, Green Bay (2-1-1) should be able to put a ton of pressure on the 40-year-old Flacco, especially given how much the Bengals offensive line struggled to keep Joe Burrow and Jake Browning upright.
At the same time, I can’t unsee how poorly the Packers secondary played vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago. Green Bay’s DBs have a tough task against Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. If nothing else, those two are dangerous enough to help Cincinnati to pull out a backdoor cover.
Staying away from the spread in this game is the smart play, but if I have to take a side, I’ll take Cincinnati at +14 to at least cover as the massive underdog.
49ers at Bucs (-3) — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bucs -3
The line here tells us that this game is a coin flip, and at first glance, I don’t disagree.
The Bucs (4-1) keep finding ways to win, but given that all four of their wins came by three points or fewer, I’m not quite sold on them covering. And how can you count out a Niners (4-1) team that just carved up the Rams with several key pieces on the sidelines?
In a game that seemingly has “push” written all over it if the line remains Bucs -3, I’ll go with the home team, I guess.
Lions at Chiefs (-2.5) — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Pick: Lions +2.5
Detroit is dealing with a slew of injuries in the secondary, which is probably why the 4-1 Lions are getting 2.5 points vs. the 2-3 Chiefs.
Even with starting corners Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed, plus backup Ennis Rakestraw Jr., out, I think the Lions will push Kansas City, if not pull the upset. Give me Detroit’s high-powered offense to score as many points as necessary — at least to cover — against a Chiefs team that is 0-3 this year in games decided by six points or fewer.
Bills (-4.5) at Falcons — Mon., 7:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Pick: Falcons +4.5
On Sunday Night Football in Week 5, the Patriots might have unveiled a blueprint to at least slow down the Bills (4-1): pack the box and dare their receivers to make plays downfield.
Atlanta (2-2) looked awful against Carolina back in Week 3, but the Falcons have otherwise played well on both sides of the ball, and they’re coming off of a Week 5 bye. This is not only a tight turnaround after a last-second loss in primetime for the Bills, but it’s also a tough test for a defense that played well against the Jets and Saints, but struggled against the Ravens in Week 1, the Dolphins in Week 3 and the Patriots in Week 5.
So no, I’m not confident in the Bills covering on the road against a solid opponent, especially if DL Ed Oliver remains out while LB Matt Milano misses more time with a pectoral muscle injury.
Bears at Commanders (-4.5) — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC)
Pick: Commanders -4.5
If not for a fourth-quarter collapse vs. the Vikings in Week 1, the Bears (2-2) would be 3-1, with their only loss coming against the Lions. The Commanders (3-2) are off to a strong start, including a Week 5 win on the road vs. the Chargers.
Part of me expects a shootout in primetime, which makes the Bears tempting at +4.5.
But although injuries have played a part in this defense’s early-season struggles (and the possible return of DT Grady Jarrett, LB T.J. Edwards and nickel corner Kyler Gordon could provide a huge boost in this game), I don’t quite trust Chicago to hold up well enough against the run to pull the upset, or cover.
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