The NFL season is just over one month old, and per usual, there have been surprises both good (Colts) and bad (Ravens). That leaves us plenty of intrigue moving forward. Are strong starts – both individual and team-wide – going to hold up? Can teams bounce back?
October often starts providing some of those answers. Early-season holes can be dug out of. The 2024 Rams started 1-4 before making the playoffs and nearly upsetting the Eagles. The addition of a seventh playoff team in both conferences has widened teams’ margins for errors just a bit. A hot finish can overcome a cold start, but hot finishes require some mid-season heating up, too. Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, sixteen teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-4. The number shrinks to four at 1-5 and just one – the 1970 Bengals – at 1-6.
October can also poke holes in the hot starts. In fact, it already has: The only two teams who entered October undefeated – the Bills and the Eagles – both lost on the first weekend of the month. This season is just the fourth since 1970 that there are zero undefeated teams through five weeks.
All that is to say we’ve learned a lot, but there’s still a lot to learn. So using what we know and what we think we know, Doug Clawson and Zach Pereles are deciding whether to buy or sell on these six pressing topics:
1. Baltimore’s playoff hopes are dead.
Pereles: Sell. They aren’t dead, but they’re on life support. Baltimore is almost assuredly going to fall to 1-5 this week when they face the Rams before one of the most-needed byes in NFL history. Lamar Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton are among the injured Ravens that could return by Week 8. The reason I’m not all the way out on this is the AFC North looks like one of the NFL’s weaker divisions, Baltimore’s schedule lightens up significantly after the bye, and Derrick Henry is going to get going one way or another. If you have a quarterback, you have a chance, and Jackson’s return will give them that chance.
Clawson: Sell. If last season taught us anything, the AFC North is wide open. The Ravens were two games back of the Steelers with four games to play in 2024 and they won out while Pittsburgh lost out. Now, with Joe Burrow out another two months at least, and a shaky Aaron Rodgers leading the 3-1 Steelers, it’s as wide open as ever. The Ravens two big problems are Jackson’s health and their defense, and both can be fixed. Jackson should be back in a week or two, and the Ravens had the best defense in the NFL in the second half of last season after they were one of the worst in the first half. Look for Baltimore to turn things around by making an adjustment on their coaching staff (firing DC Zachary Orr) or with personnel (last year they slid Kyle Hamilton to deep safety and it worked wonders) while getting healthier.
2. The Cowboys are making the playoffs
Pereles: Buy. The Cowboys are dead last in total defense. They give up way too many big plays, and they are inconsistent defending the run. But their offense also has an absolute flamethrower in Dak Prescott, who will get offensive line help and CeeDee Lamb back soon, too. George Pickens has looked like a No. 1 wide receiver with Lamb out, and them playing together is a scary proposition for opposing defenses. Dallas also gets a relatively light schedule – the Panthers, Cardinals and Raiders among their next five games – and the defense is going to get healthier by the time a tough closing stretch rolls around.
Clawson: Sell. I don’t trust Dallas’ defense or Prescott’s injury history enough to buy into the Cowboys making the playoffs. The Cowboys are dead last in defensive EPA this year (yes even worse than the Ravens) and they face a six-game stretch starting in Week 12 that would derail teams a lot better than Dallas. They face the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Chargers and Commanders in succession. Plus, the NFC is loaded with other potential playoff teams. I’d take the Eagles, Commanders, Lions, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers and Rams over the Cowboys. The Vikings and Seahawks will also be in the mix.
3. The Bengals should have done better than Joe Flacco
Pereles: Sell. Could they have done better than Flacco? Sure. But should they have? No. Jake Browning had reached untenable levels of bad for Cincinnati. They couldn’t go forward with him. Sometimes, optics win out, and getting booed down 28-3 at home when your quarterback has thrown three interceptions just wasn’t OK. Flacco might not be much better. But the Bengals, with an awful defense, aren’t going anywhere in all likelihood. If Flacco catches lightning in a bottle like he did for Cleveland in 2023, great. If not, at least he’s not Browning, and the Bengals barely had to pay anything for him.
Clawson: Buy. I’m tempted to agree with Zach because it was a very cheap price and Flacco was an upgrade for the Browns when they made the playoffs in 2023. I just cringe at the thought of not investing more to increase the chances of salvaging one of Burrow’s prime years. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and all you have to do is get to the postseason to have a chance at a championship with these superstars on offense. The AFC North is winnable, but Cincinnati will be without Burrow for another two months, so they needed to go bigger there. I can’t imagine Russell Wilson would have cost much more, and he has a much better track record than Flacco, especially in terms of protecting the football. I would have even considered trading Trey Hendrickson for, say, Mac Jones and a late-round draft pick. The 49ers’ pass rush needs to replace Nick Bosa, and Brock Purdy’s turf toe injury isn’t as bad as Burrow’s. Now, I doubt San Francisco would part with Jones, but maybe Hendrickson would have been enough to entice them.
4. Jonathan Taylor is the NFL’s best RB
Clawson: Sell. Taylor has the fifth-highest rushing average (90.2 yards per game) in NFL history behind Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and Eric Dickerson. He’s still not the best RB in the NFL, despite that mind-blowing fact and even with his fast start, coupled with the slow starts from Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
Taylor doesn’t have the durability or impact as a pass catcher to warrant top RB status. He’s missed 16 games in the previous three seasons and doesn’t have the overall value of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. Robinson has nearly the same number of scrimmage yards (584) as Taylor (613) this season on 28 fewer touches. Gibbs is coming off the best season in terms of yards per touch since Marshall Faulk in the early 2000s. Both are more explosive and versatile than Taylor.
Pereles: Sell. I echo pretty much everything Doug said, though I do think Taylor’s improvement in the passing game is worth commending. He has 16 catches for 133 yards this season after 18 catches for 136 yards all of last season.
Taylor is a great fit for the Colts’ physical, downhill running game. He’s a very different runner from Robinson, who spends a lot more time behind the line of scrimmage. If you want a no-nonsense runner, favor Taylor. But I want a bit more versatility out of my running backs.
5. The NFL has a QB depth problem
PERELES: SELL. Part of the allure of the quarterback position is that there are so few good ones. I think the quarterback depth being what it is helps the NFL. Right now, the balance works so that the best-coached offenses can make backups work. See Mac Jones in San Francisco this season, or Sam Darnold in Minnesota last season, or Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay the season before. But for the teams that can’t figure it out, I’m reminded of an anecdote from Ron Jaworski’s book “The Games that Changed the Game” involving himself, Jon Gruden and Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore talking about Peyton Manning.
“He looked us both in the eye, paused for a moment, then said in that gravelly voice of his, ‘Fellas, if “18” goes down, we’re f****d. And we don’t practice f****d.'”
Clawson: Sell. In today’s NFL economy there’s always a high demand for quarterbacks, but not nearly enough supply. The NFL averaged 64 different starting QBs per year in the previous four seasons. So on average, teams use two quarterbacks per season. 21 percent of games have been started by backup quarterbacks in the last five seasons. Teams have a .381 win percentage in the last five seasons with backup quarterbacks, so they are essentially the Raiders or Cardinals. That’s simply not good enough performance from players who are pressed into duty more than you’d like.
This year’s backup quarterback play is indicative of the wild inconsistency you’ll find. Cooper Rush was awful in his Ravens debut after providing steady play in place of an injured Prescott in previous years. Jones looks to have revitalized his career with Shanahan after struggling with the Jaguars last year. Browning has been so bad this year (after going 4-3 in 2023) that the Bengals had to trade for 40-year old Flacco. On a macro level I’m not sure how the NFL solves this problem, but on a team level this means you need to invest more in backup quarterbacks to stay competitive while the starting QB is on the mend (unless it’s a season-ending injury; then you’re probably screwed). Pay them more and give them more reps in the offseason and in the preseason.
6. Emeka Egbuka was the best pick from the 2025 NFL Draft
Pereles: Buy. Todd Bowles is usually very reserved with the media, so when he was singing Egbuka’s praises before the season started, maybe we should have paid more attention. Egbuka has 25 catches for 445 yards and five touchdowns in his first five games. You know who else has done that since the 1970 merger? Nobody! Egbuka has been crucial given that Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have both missed time, and he already looks like one of the best wide receivers in the league.