WASHINGTON — The number of satellites projected to be launched over the next decade will dwarf the number of those now on orbit — but even though the bulk of those new birds will be owned by commercial and civil government entities, it is the defense sector that will “anchor” the market through 2034, according to a new analysis.
Market intelligence group NovaSpace’s annual “Satellites to Be Built and Launched” report states, “more than 43,000 satellites will launch over the next decade, reshaping competition across orbits and applications and fueling a $665 billion market in manufacturing and launch services.”
According to US Space Command’s public database of objects in orbit, Space.track.org, there are now approximately 12,500 active satellites that can be positively identified. Another 4,700 space objects can not be linked to any owner/operator for a number of technical reasons, and could be active satellites or debris. (SPACECOM’s satellite catalog further does not publish the whereabouts of a number of classified US and other allied national security satellites.)
NovaSpace projects that five government and commercial mega-constellations in lower orbits — SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield, Amazon’s Kuiper, and China’s Qianfan and Guowang networks — will account for 66 percent of the satellites launched between 2025 and 2034, but by contrast only 11 percent of market value.
“Budget priorities, meanwhile, sits with defense. Defense remains the market’s economic anchor, capturing 48% of total value despite representing just 9% of satellite volume,” the analysis adds.
Caleb Henry, research director at Quilty Space, agreed with the report’s analysis about the continued centrality of defense dollars to the global commercial space market.
“The business world is quite dynamic, and we’re seeing a sea change where everyone is a defense contractor now,” he told Breaking Defense today.
The public information released by NovaSpace does not break out projected US market shares or the percentage made up by US Defense Department acquisition. However, the findings regarding global defense spending are somewhat ironic, given DoD’s long-stated aversion to serving as an “anchor tenant” for the burgeoning US commercial space ecosystem.
NovaSpace further projects that the market for satellite manufacturing and launch, while robust and growing, will remain largely siloed within nations and/or regions so that only domestic companies can compete — or vertically locked into one owner/operator’s business (i.e., SpaceX launches all of its Starlink birds).
“Overall, the manufacturing and launch market offers significant revenue potential, however, targeting this opportunity will require a nuanced approach. Only 7% of the manufacturing market in value is fully open to any manufacturer and 70% is considered ‘nationally captive’, with the remainder locked by vertical integration of constellations. To compete here, consideration of strategic partnerships through the supply chain is now a must,” the report states.
With regard to launch, the report notes that SpaceX likely will continue to hold “a near-monopoly over heavy launch in the West,” and that while other providers are striving to compete, the company’s “Starship promises to profoundly redefine space transportation and the space economy at large.”
Starship has yet to prove viable, with SpaceX set to launch its 11th test flight of the super-heavy craft, being designed to eventually carry cargo to the Moon and Mars, on Oct. 13.