It was a great week in this spot last week for everything but the touchdown props! We’ll take that, even if it’s not as fun to miss the guys who score the points. We’re going to pivot and go back to being dirty dog fans this week for the most part, although there are a couple of spots we like against the spread out west.
Shoutout to kickers, by the way! As they ruined a perfect week against the spread for us in this space last week. And this week, Karty for the Rams, along with Kyren Williams, single-handedly knocked me out of survivor. Neat! On we go, though, with a look at some stinky teams in decent spots. If Thursday night taught us anything, it’s beware the “free” bet on any team that is facing another team with tons of injuries.
Week 4 ATS: 4-1
Week 4 Player Props: 2-1
Week 4 Touchdowns: 0-3
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Ther’s tons of injury news this week, and things will change rapidly. You want to be on your toes, because when someone’s ruled out, that’s an opportunity to snag a prop here or a prop there at a really good price. For all of my picks — plus a slew of great insight from other experts — make sure to join SportsLine and turn on alerts.
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Below, we’ve got my five favorite bets of the week, the three teams that are terrifying me, a couple player props I love for this weekend and my best bets for anytime touchdown scorers. Let’s get into some NFL betting.
Best bets
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Buccaneers
The Rams played on Thursday,, otherwise you know they’d hold the top spot here. Instead, we’ll stay in the NFC West and roll with another short-ish favorite in the Seahawks, who welcome the banged-up Buccaneers on a lengthy cross-country trip, one of the longest you can make in the NFL.
Mike Evans is obviously out for this game, but it looks very likely he’ll be joined by Bucky Irving, who was spotted Wednesday in a walking boot and crutches and needs to practice Friday to play Sunday, per Todd Bowles. It seems unlikely! Baker Mayfield’s been dinged up all season and missed practiced Wednesday as well.
Seattle hasn’t played a lot of quality teams, but the Seahawks own the best defensive DVOA in football and the second-best yards per play differential in the league. They should be on high alert for closing out teams after Arizona snuck back in it against them in Week 4, but they also get a massive rest advantage here having played last Thursday and not having to travel across the country.
Panthers +1.5 vs. Dolphins
Woof. The Panthers have been terrible this year. Even in their only win, their statistical profile was like that of a terrible loss! Nothing about this game feels remotely good, except the spot is just tough for Miami. The Dolphins just won their early season Super Bowl, a tough-ish victory over the Jets on Monday night, in a game where they lost their best receiver in Tyreek Hill. This is just the Panthers’ second home game of the season, and they obviously looked much better in the friendly confines of Charlotte.
It’s a huge spot for Dave Canales because Carolina doesn’t have many winnable games between now and Week 10 against the Saints. Seats are warming across the board in Charlotte, and there’s no reason to think the Panthers can’t move the ball some against this Miami defense. Don’t shoot yourself in the foot like the Jets did and you can be right there at the end to steal a win as a home dog.
Jets +1.5 vs. Cowboys
It should be obvious here, but if you like the Jets, wait for a three if you can get it. There are plenty of reasons not to like the Jets because they keep finding ways to not win. They should arguably be 2-2 if you look at the Steelers game and how they played against the Dolphins, but, as one legendary Jets coach once said, you are what your record says you are. And the Jets are 0-4, which makes them an extremely desperate team.
And that desperate team is at home, against a Cowboys defense that simply cannot stop anyone. Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall should all eat here. The Jets are just as bad on defense, so I’m not sure we can expect them to slow down Dak Prescott — who is playing at an MVP level, quite honestly — but I do think in a high-scoring game where there’s lots of variation and very little defense I’m much more inclined to jump on board with the underdog.
Raiders +7 at Colts
We are teetering on a situation where I walk into my house and all my family and friends are sitting in chairs in a circle and they want to talk about me picking the Raiders and how much it’s hurting everyone. Or maybe talk about me fading the Colts? That actually worked last week, thanks in large part to Indianapolis not playing a perfect game for the first time all year. Thanks to several turnovers and several boneheaded plays, things flipped.
I think the Colts win this game, but this is a massive point spread for Daniel Jones (a.k.a. Indiana Jones). In fact, it’s the first time he’s ever been favored by a full touchdown in his career. That’s more than 70 games, assuming it closes Colts -7.
The Raiders aren’t particularly great, but the Colts you can potentially run on — the Raiders need to scheme up the offensive line a little better, get some push and let Ashton Jeanty pound the ball, as he’s been incredibly explosive in breaking tackles this season, which is no surprise. The Raiders just have to keep things close, hang around and potentially steal this. The backdoor is wide open for Geno Smith, who should look better indoors.
Chargers -2.5 vs. Commanders
There are a lot of big-time injury situations around the NFL this week, and while Thursday night maybe should make us hesitant to read too much into them, I’m inclined to back the Chargers on a bounce-back week after an ugly loss to the Giants on the East Coast last week despite Jayden Daniels (likely) returning for this game.
The Chargers definitely have offensive line issues, but I trust the Jim Harbaugh-led coaching staff to spend the week game planning around those problems and maybe running some two-tight end stuff that helps out their backup tackles. They should feed Omarian Hampton in this spot (see: below) and let Justin Herbert rip on some quick hitters.
On the other side, Washington is missing SO MUCH on offense. If Deebo Samuel somehow can’t go — and he hasn’t practiced as of Thursday — Luke McCaffrey will be the Commies’ No. 1 receiver. Toss Derwin James as a spy on Daniels, force Washington to win from the pocket and make them one-dimensional … the recipe is there for the Chargers to right the ship in Week 5 despite their personnel shortcomings.
NFL player props
Derrick Henry Over 19.5 carries
The Big Dog is the only hope for the Ravens this week unless Cooper Rush is going to do something super weird or the defense is going to magically become good. The Ravens can win this game, though, by feeding Henry. It looks like several pieces of the offensive line may be back this week, and Henry has a remarkable history of dominating the Texans — over 100 yards per game in 15 games with 13 touchdowns, which also includes a pair of terrible 2023 games and small usage outings from the beginning of his career — and John Harbaugh likely knows that as well as the aforementioned only hope bit.
This was 17.5 on MGM on Wednesday, but I can’t imagine that hung around. I expect the Ravens to give Henry 25-30 carries, try to shrink the game as much as possible, hope they can stop the Texans from running and prevent any huge Nico Collins plays and steal a win with a skeleton crew.
A.J. Brown Under 58.5 receiving yards
Vegas has declined to release reception props for Brown, which should be telling, since he’s likely to see a healthy dose of Patrick Surtain and the Eagles don’t appear to really care about passing the football. It would be surprising if they chucked it around a lot against a dangerous Broncos secondary, and if they do, it seems likely DeVonta Smith could be the guy Jalen Hurts focuses on.
As such, we’re going to fade the ever-dangerous Brown in ths spot. He can wipe this bet off the board faster than a roulette dealer with one long shot, but I trust Surtain in coverage. And if the Eagles get a lead as a home favorite, they will feed Saquon Barkley and likely avoid throwing the ball too much.
Jaxon Smith-Njgba Over 6.5 receptions
The Seahawks are just over a field goal favorite in this one, and conventional wisdom states you’d run the ball a ton and ask a banged-up Buccaneers team to beat your elite defense. That probably holds true — mostly — but the Bucs are a pass funnel and the Seahawks aren’t stupid offensively. After a slow game last Thursday, I’m expecting JSN to get heavily involved from a receptions standpoint in this matchup to try and set up shorter stuff on third down so the Seahawks can lean on their ground game. Baker Mayfield is fully healthy as well, which should mean the Bucs stay in this and Seattle can’t squat on their run game and just melt clock.
Anytime TD scorer props
Javonte Williams anytime TD
Shop around a bit as I saw some +100’s out there early Thursday, but it’s fine to lay up to -125 on Williams to score a touchdown in this game considering the matchup and red-zone usage he’s seen so far this year. We might get Jaydon Blue’s debut in Week 5, but I’d argue his explosion only helps Williams, who should see all the high-value/goal-line touches for Dallas.
Williams ranks in the top five or 10 in terms of carries inside the 20/10/5-yard lines, up there with all the biggest workhorses and superstar running backs. Dallas will see some looks near the goal line and quite easily could draw some pass interference stuff that sets them up on the 1. I’m not opposed to looking at multiple scores for Williams, quite honestly.
Luke McCaffrey anytime TD
Taking a longer-shot stab here with the guy who might be the only healthy wide receiver for the Commanders come kickoff on Sunday. We know there’s no Terry McLaurin or Noah Brown, and Deebo Samuel still hasn’t practiced, although he’s traveling with the team.
McCaffrey has served as a key piece for the Commanders’ offense before this year and acquitted himself pretty well, catching touchdown passes in each of the last two weeks. He could see increased volume, and if the Chargers pack the line in the red zone, I wouldn’t be shocked if he got some looks from Jayden Daniels. At this price, he’s a really nice look (and also a solid add in Fantasy if you’re desperate).
TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD
Another midrange/longer look here, fresh off a game in which Henderson found paydirt in a blowout of the Panthers. His snap count wasn’t what many expected with the issues we saw from other Pats running backs the week before, but I don’t think New England’s coaching staff wanted to use Henderson too much in a game that was out of hand early.