I was the hottest NFL expert in the country last week, going a remarkable 14-2 against the spread. The funny part about this was that my two ATS losses came in my top five picks, as the Minnesota Vikings’ offensive line was obliterated in Ireland, while the Green Bay Packers could not cover the spread in Micah Parsons’ revenge game. But as for those “Other Week 4 picks” at the bottom of the article? A perfect 11-0.
Arguably my best pick last week was taking the Jacksonville Jaguars to defeat the San Francisco 49ers straight up as 3.5-point road dogs. They get a chance to build on that momentum this Monday night, as Liam Coen welcomes Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to Duval County. I’m also proud of taking the Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, because I know there were a ton of people that identified those lines as potential traps. Nope.
In Week 5, Dillon Gabriel will make his first NFL start against a Brian Flores defense, Cooper Rush will look to lead the Baltimore Ravens to victory against the 1-3 Houston Texans and the Eagles will put their perfect record on the line against Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:
Top five picks ATS record: 8-12
Overall ATS record: 37-27
Straight up record: 43-20-1
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Let’s begin with what I feel like is a hot take. Following Jaxson Dart’s upset of the Los Angeles Chargers, Giants +1.5 is probably going to be a popular upset pick. I’m going to say it’s a trap.
The Saints have had some ugly outings this year, but this team is still fighting for Kellen Moore. New Orleans trailed the Buffalo Bills, 21-19, midway through the fourth quarter last week, and set season highs with 189 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush. Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and Spencer Rattler are the only trio in the NFL to each have 45 rushing yards in every game this season. The Giants allow 153 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL.
Dart completed 13 of 20 passes for just 111 yards, and registered a touchdown on a shovel pass. He made a legitimate impact on the ground with 54 rushing yards and a touchdown, which is something the Saints defense is going to have to be ready for, but the Giants offense took a hit with the loss of Malik Nabers. I never imagined myself making the Saints a best bet this year, but here we are.
The pick: Saints -1.5
Projected score: Saints 21-14
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The headline of this matchup has to be the Ravens’ injuries, as it looks like Lamar Jackson won’t be under center on Sunday. That’s not all, as cornerback Marlon Humphrey, linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton did not practice on Thursday — plus Nnamdi Madubuike has already been ruled out for the season. Defensive tackle Travis Jones, pass rusher Odafe Oweh, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and cornerback Nate Wiggins were limited participants, so we’ll see what happens with them.
The Texans have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL this year, allowing 12.8 points per game. The offense ranks No. 29 (16 points scored per game), but maybe they got back on track following the 26-0 blowout of the lowly Tennessee Titans. Keep an eye on rookie running back Woody Marks, who racked up 119 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns on 21 touches last week.
The pick: Texans -1.5
Projected score: Texans 17-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
I was down on the Seahawks entering this season, and laughed when they fell to the banged-up 49ers at home in Week 1. However, Seattle has been playing well. I did not expect the Seahawks to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers like they did in Week 2, they destroyed the New Orleans Saints in Week 3 then found a way to win in Arizona after blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks are also one of just two teams to allow 20 points or fewer in all four games this season.
The Buccaneers are absolutely a feisty team, but this roster is so injured that they couldn’t even practice on Wednesday. Baker Mayfield didn’t practice on Wednesday with knee and right biceps injuries, Bucky Irving is expected to miss time with a foot injury and Mike Evans should miss another game with a hamstring issue.
Health is the most important factor in this matchup. The Bucs are banged-up traveling across the country, while the Seahawks got a mini-bye after playing on Thursday last week.
The pick: Seahawks -3
Projected score: Seahawks 24-17
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Even though I’m 37-27 ATS this year, my top picks haven’t been incredible (8-12). Half of those wins have come from whichever team is playing the Titans.
I have made fading the Titans a best bet EVERY SINGLE WEEK, and I’m 4-0. This team is bad, and I don’t know how much I have to explain that. Brian Callahan gave play-calling duties to Bo Hardegree last week, and Tennessee put up zero points for the first time since 2019. I understand 8.5 points is a lot for a team like the Cardinals which still has yet to reach 300 yards of total offense in a single game this year, but Cameron Ward’s top receiver, Calvin Ridley, did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to knee and elbow injuries. The Titans are on the road for the second straight week, while the Cardinals are at home for the second straight week and coming off a mini bye.
The pick: Cardinals -8.5
Projected score: Cardinals 20-7
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Jayden Daniels is back for the Commanders, but he wasn’t dominating teams when healthy. In fact, Washington is averaging 19.5 points per game with Daniels under center and 34 points per game with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Obviously I’m not saying Mariota is better than the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, but this Commanders team struggled out of the gates. They also don’t have wide receiver Terry McLaurin in the fold due to his quad injury.
As for the Chargers, it’s not great that they are now down their top two offensive tackles, but keep in mind the Commanders don’t have a pass rush like the Giants do. Justin Herbert’s passing attack can pick apart Washington’s secondary, and Omarion Hampton has finally arrived. He racked up 165 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown last week. The Chargers are 15-5-1 ATS under Jim Harbaugh since the start of last season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL.
The pick: Chargers -2.5
Projected score: Chargers 23-20
Other Week 5 picks