By News18,S Murlidharan

Copyright news18

In a state with a population of 8.53 crore, 1.1 crore membership claimed by Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), promoted and spearheaded by actor Vijay, is an impressive figure indeed. Its second state conference recently held in Madurai attracted massive crowds. Is he peaking prematurely in terms of turnout at his rallies? In the electoral sweepstakes, seasoned politicians and parties play their cards close to their chests and reveal their minds closer to the announcement of poll dates.
Under the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (KMUT) scheme, the DMK government gives Rs 1,000 per month to women heads of families. It recently relaxed the scheme to allow this monthly support even if they are beneficiaries under four other social security schemes, enabling as many as 1.1 crore women to get Rs 1,000 per month.
Tamil Nadu assembly elections are almost a year away. Competitive freebie announcements will peak as the D-day nears. The BJP, which was earlier averse to non-merit subsidies, reaped a rich harvest of seats in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi in 2024 assembly elections in these states on the back of monthly allowance to women. Can the TVK remain steadfast in his opposition to the freebie culture? Time alone will tell. In a state where people expect their mixies and grinders promised in the manifesto of the winning party as a matter of divine right, it will be difficult for Vijay to remain impervious to the temptation of wielding this blandishment.
The BJP, which has been itching to get a toehold in this southern state, clocked an impressive 11 per cent vote share in the last elections. Yet, it was not enough to get it even a single seat in the Lok Sabha, scattered as these votes were across the state. Had they been concentrated in select pockets, the votes would have converted into seats. It seems Vijay has imbibed this lesson which is why he is confining him to the southern Tamil Nadu and not spreading himself thin across the state in the 2026 upcoming assembly elections. While DMK is facing anti-incumbency, it is not exactly a wave for Vijay whose TVK after all is a one-man army in a state where there are as many as 234 seats.
In a multi-cornered fight under the first past the post (FPTP) system, the party getting, say, 25 per cent of the votes or even less can win bulk of the seats. So, it won’t be easy for Vijay unless in his pocket boroughs he can bring round other parties to his side.
It takes a committed cadre for a party to win. One wonders if the fans of Vijay would also double in as his party’s cadre who would not only attend his rallies starry-eyed but also fan out into every nook and cranny of Tamil Nadu, especially its hinterlands to drum up support for their Thalapathi which monicker incidentally is also the reverential address that pleases the CM Stalin.
Stalin’s son Udayanidhi is the deputy CM and is being groomed to takeover from his father at the appropriate time. The animus between Vijay and Udayanidhi who also wore the greasepaint for a while before plunging headlong into politics is not hidden from anyone.
Vijay’s Jana Nayagan will be the 2026 Pongal release. Will it catapult him on the Vijay (victory) path? Grand events and film releases do not necessarily transform into votes much less into seats as the BJP realised to its chagrin in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It opened Ram Mandir on 22 January 2024 but that momentum could not be sustained till the elections in May 2024, resulting in just a tally of 240 seats—down from 302 seats in 2019.
Vijay has been careful in taking a raincheck—he might return to acting should his political ambitions sour instead of soaring. Rajinikanth was straddling both the worlds for decades before throwing in the political towel on health grounds. Vijay has abandoned films just for the nonce.
The writer is a senior columnist. He tweets @smurlidharan. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.