US stock indexes finished in the green on Monday with outperformance in the Nasdaq, thanks to notable gains in Alphabet (GOOGL) which joined the USD 3 trillion market cap club and Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied on the Musk share purchases. Other mega-cap stocks performed well (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN), but Nvidia (NVDA) losses limited the gains due to China’s antitrust investigations. Sectors were more mixed, however, with the heavy-cap sectors (communication, consumer discretionary and tech) outperforming, while consumer staples and health care lagged, and breadth was negative at c. 200 gainers to 300 losers. Elsewhere, T-notes were bid as a downbeat NY Fed Manufacturing survey added to economic concerns, while the attention turns to US Retail Sales on Tuesday and the FOMC on Wednesday.
USD weakened as lower US yields set the tone for the start of the week ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday, while in terms of data, the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey for September unexpectedly saw a sharp drop due to a plummet in new orders and a drop in shipments, although given that the FOMC and Retail Sales lie ahead, the release had little bearing on USD movement.
Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand Food Price Index, Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index, US Senate Vote on Fed Nominee Miran.
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LOOKING AHEAD
Highlights include New Zealand Food Price Index, Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index, US Senate Vote on Fed Nominee Miran.
Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
US stock indexes finished in the green on Monday with outperformance in the Nasdaq, thanks to notable gains in Alphabet (GOOGL) which joined the USD 3 trillion market cap club and Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied on the Musk share purchases. Other mega-cap stocks performed well (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN), but Nvidia (NVDA) losses limited the gains due to China’s antitrust investigations. Sectors were more mixed, however, with the heavy-cap sectors (communication, consumer discretionary and tech) outperforming, while consumer staples and health care lagged, and breadth was negative at c. 200 gainers to 300 losers. Elsewhere, T-notes were bid as a downbeat NY Fed Manufacturing survey added to economic concerns, while the attention turns to US Retail Sales on Tuesday and the FOMC on Wednesday.
SPX +0.47% at 6,615, NDX +0.84% at 24,294, DJI +0.11% at 45,883, RUT +0.34% at 2,405.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
US President Trump posted that the meeting between US and China in Europe “has gone VERY WELL!”, while he will be speaking to Chinese President Xi on Friday and said a deal was reached on a ‘certain’ company.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they have a framework on TikTok with China and said there will be another round of talks in the coming weeks probably, as well as noted that anti-money laundering is different to the fentanyl issue. Bessent said the next round of US-China talks could result in another 90-day rollover on a tariff truce, and will likely happen before the November 10th deadline.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the threat of a TikTok shutdown brought Chinese negotiators to the framework deal and that China initially demanded compensation via tariff and export concessions, while Bessent added the TikTok deal will preserve US national security. Bessent also said the Chinese NVIDIA (NVDA) investigation announcement was poor timing, while he added that tariffs on Chinese imports of Russian oil were mentioned, but not the centrepiece of talks.
USTR Greer said “we have great and deep respect for each other” and came to an agreement on the challenging and prickly issue of TikTok. Greer added “Without US President Trump leadership, we would not have been able to reach a deal” and they are open to considering further action on a tariff pause if talks are positive.
China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said the US and China had in-depth, candid and constructive talks on issues of common concern, including TikTok, and both sides acknowledged that stable trade ties are significant. Li added that it is important to find solutions through dialogue and consultation, while the two sides will keep close communication and engage in consultation over details of the outcome documents.
China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said they noticed the US continued sanctions on Chinese entities following a series of talks, when asked about US sanctions, while he stated the US generalises national security, and called it typical “unilateral bullying”. Li added China firmly opposes this and raised serious concerns with the US side. Li also said US-China trade talk outcomes are hard-earned and the US should not continue to suppress Chinese companies, as well as urged the US side to correct its wrongful actions and urged for the cancellation of restrictive measures. Furthermore, Li said the US expressed willingness to work with China in reducing investment barriers, and he expects to see more outcomes in trade and economic areas, but added we will wait and see.
China’s cyberspace regulator official said talks on TikTok were candid and in depth, and that both sides reached a basic consensus on TikTok, while China is to review and approve tech exports related to TikTok in accordance with law, and the two sides will jointly guide companies to have a good follow-up. Furthermore, the official said China supports firms’ business operations overseas and hopes the US will provide an open, fair, just and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese firms, including TikTok.
Chinese Commerce Ministry firmly opposes US secondary tariffs over Russian oil purchases and said they will take measures to safeguard legitimate rights and interests.
US investors eyeing a deal to buy TikTok US said the guidance from the White House is that the Chinese will agree to allow the new owners to rewrite the all-important algorithm that the Chinese did not want to relinquish as part of any deal, according to FBN.
Potential meetings between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi would have been off the table if Madrid talks on TikTok had failed to produce an agreement, according to Reuters citing sources.
White House Trade Advisor Navarro said India is coming to the table on trade, while it was separately reported that India’s Trade Secretary announced India and the US are holding trade discussions at various levels, including diplomatic, with talks scheduled on Tuesday in New Delhi.
Senior US official said the White House was not tracking any announcement to reduce US tariffs on Scotch Whisky ahead of US President Trump’s UK visit, in a sign that an agreement was unlikely, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump posted that ““Too Late” MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND. HOUSING WILL SOAR!!!”
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are respecting the Fed quiet period, with regard to Fed Chair interviews.
Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he spoke on Wednesday with Treasury Secretary Bessent about the Fed Chair position, while Bullard said he is “very interested” in becoming Fed Chair under the right conditions and noted the Fed must defend the dollar, keep inflation low, and protect independence.
US President Trump said subject to SEC approval, companies should no longer be forced on a quarterly basis, but rather report on a six-month basis.
Punchbowl wrote that a US government shutdown appears more likely than not at this point but added “that’s not to say it’s guaranteed”.
DATA RECAP
US NY Fed Manufacturing (Sep) -8.7 vs. Exp. 5.0 (Prev. 11.9)
New Orders: -19.6 (prev. 15.4)
Prices Paid: 46.1 (prev. 54.1)
Employment: -1.2 (prev. 4.4)
FX
USD weakened as lower US yields set the tone for the start of the week ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday, while in terms of data, the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey for September unexpectedly saw a sharp drop due to a plummet in new orders and a drop in shipments, although given that the FOMC and Retail Sales lie ahead, the release had little bearing on USD movement.
EUR benefitted from the softer dollar and with ECB officials reiterating that interest rates are at a good place.
GBP notched decent gains in which GBP/USD returned to the 1.3600 handle with UK newsflow light ahead of US President Trump’s state visit.
JPY mildly strengthened against the dollar owing to narrowing US-Japan yield differentials.
FIXED INCOME
T-notes caught a bid after a weak NY Fed manufacturing survey.
COMMODITIES
Oil prices marched higher amid continued Ukraine attacks on Russian oil facilities.
California lawmakers passed a bill over the weekend to boost oil production, which would allow the construction of thousands of new oil wells annually, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu said “Hamas has no immunity in any country”, while he added they have not yet finished receiving the final reports about Hamas leaders in Doha.
Gulf leaders instructed the Joint Defence Council of the Gulf Cooperation Council to convene an urgent meeting in Doha following the Israeli attack, while Gulf leaders called for the activation of the joint defence mechanism. It was separately reported that the Doha summit draft communiqué called for a review of diplomatic relations with Israel after the attack on Qatar.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the US will continue maximum pressure on Iran until it changes course, while he also commented that moves to recognise Palestinian statehood have no impact in bringing the US closer to a Palestinian state. It was separately reported that Secretary of State Rubio will travel to Qatar after his visit to Israel, according to a senior State Department official.
It was initially reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke to US President Trump before Israel bombed Qatar, according to Axios. However, a senior Trump administration official denied reports in Axios that President Trump could have stopped the attack in Qatar but did not do so.
Leaders of Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and the UK held a phone call on Monday about the situation in the Middle East, according to the Canadian PM’s office.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian drone attack damaged a key unit of Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery (355k BPD) and repairs will take around one month, according to Reuters citing sources.
Russia’s Kremlin said NATO is fighting Russia and it is obvious that NATO is de facto involved in this war, while it has provided direct and indirect support to Kyiv. Kremlin said there is a pause in the diplomatic negotiations to halt the fighting in Ukraine and noted there is no flexibility from Ukraine. It was separately reported that Russia’s Deputy Chair said “Allowing NATO countries to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine means war between NATO and Russia”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Olhivske in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, according to RIA.
UK government said RAF Typhoons will fly air defence missions over Poland as part of NATO’s eastern sentry mission, while UK jets are expected to start flying missions over Poland in the coming days.
Polish PM Tusk said the state protection service neutralised a drone operating over government buildings and the President’s Palace, while two Belarusians were detained.
OTHER
US President Trump said US military forces conducted a second strike against drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists from Venezuela in the SOUTHCOM area on Monday morning, under his orders, and the strike killed 3 male terrorists.
Venezuelan President Maduro said recent incidents with the US are “aggression” not “tensions”.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Chinese President Xi is to promote “orderly exit” of outdated capacities, and is to regulate government procurement, while China is to rein in “chaos” in local practices of attracting investment and to smooth out turning exports into domestic sales.
China’s market regulator is to continue antitrust investigation into NVIDIA (NVDA), while China said the preliminary probe found that NVIDIA violated anti-monopoly law, according to Bloomberg.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Kazimir said they must not change policy because of small deviations from the inflation target, while he added that monetary policy must remain nimble and they need to take a meeting-by-meeting approach.
ECB’s Kocher said risks are now more equally balanced and it is unclear if trade risks are deflationary or inflationary. Kocher said inflation risks are quite balanced and that rates are fine at current levels.
ECB’s Schnabel said interest rates are in a good place as inflation stabilises around the 2% target and the economy remains resilient at full employment. Schnabel said sentiment towards the euro area is improving and easing financial conditions, while she added that firms’ selling price expectations suggest no downside pressure on goods inflation but noted food price inflation is re-accelerating, posing risks to consumer inflation expectations.
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