With one third of college football’s regular season in the books, these things are simultaneously true:
» College football is drawing massive TV viewership.
» You should take claims of record viewership with at least a couple of grains of salt.
» Big Ten viewership is in a very healthy place.
» SEC viewership is in an even healthier place.
To unpack all of this, I checked in Wednesday with Jon Lewis, the founder and editor of Sports Media Watch.
Lewis is the best in the business when it comes to dissecting viewership — and the way it’s calculated.
The first month of the season has been full of networks touting significant year-over-year gains and record-setting numbers.
To name just a couple: ABC says its off to it’s best start “ever,” with double-digit increases in multiple demographics. Fox says viewership in its “Big Noon” window is up 22% year-over-year.
The sport is indeed in an extremely healthy place, Lewis said, in terms of TV viewership. College football out-draws everything, except the NFL.
But changes in Nielsen’s methodology make apples-to-apples comparisons to previous years impossible.
“It’s a tremendous start to the season, but there are some caveats that are important to keep in mind,” Lewis said. “Whatever you hear about college football this season, relative to past years, will have a built-in advantage because Nielsen has a new methodology that’s being compared to an old methodology.”
It would take awhile to get into the weeds on the methodological changes, but the gist of it: Nielsen is now capturing out-of-home viewership in 100% of markets. And it’s also using a “Big Data + Panel” approach that includes data from set-top devices and smart TVs.
“The numbers for college football have been so good this year that I’m not convinced that that Nielsen methodological change explains the increase in viewership,” he said. “There’s a real increase in viewership that has been fueled by some high-quality games. Again, don’t take seriously up 27%, don’t take seriously ‘most-watched ever.'”
SEC king in TV pecking order
All of the SEC’s games are on the ESPN family of networks, with the biggest games each week on ABC or ESPN.
The Big Ten’s deal is split among Fox, CBS and NBC.
As Lewis noted, the Big Ten is also in a new phase as a coast-to-coast conference. Some games still have a traditional Midwestern vibe. Games in Seattle or Los Angeles do not.
Big Ten viewership is healthy. SEC viewership is even healthier.
ABC has had the most-watched game of the weekend four out of five times this season. Fox has had it once — Ohio State-Texas, the one marquee Fox game featuring an SEC team.
“Who came out ahead? I don’t think there’s any question it’s the SEC,” Lewis said. “I think being able to have all of those games on one platform has helped in terms of driving viewership. It’s easier to follow the SEC games. You know, ‘Well it’s a big SEC Saturday.’
“Whereas with the Big Ten, yes, you know if you want to watch a prime-time game, it’s on NBC. If you’re on CBS, on 3:30 you’ll find a Big Ten team. If you’re on Fox you’ll find a Big Ten team. But not having the consistency.
“Realistically, the Big Ten would probably be better off if they had what the SEC has on ABC. Three straight games on Fox. Noon, 3:30 and prime time, all Big Ten games. But instead, it’s kind of fragmented.”
‘Pac-12’ games add twist to Big Ten TV
Lewis had an interesting take on the Big Ten’s lack of regional identity.
It’s not a problem in every league game, but it leaves you with some awkward vibes when Nebraska travels to UCLA, as the Huskers will do next month.
“I also think the SEC is better off because it has the regional aspect, whereas the Big Ten, you know, Indiana’s playing Oregon, that’s a big game, but it’s a big nonconference game, realistically,” he said. “It’s hard to really buy the argument that USC-Illinois is a conference matchup.”
He added: “If I were to pinpoint what I think is the weakest of the Big Ten television properties right now, it would be those Pac-12 home games. Because it’s one thing when the Pac-12 teams are on the road, at least they’re at Big Ten schools, and so you have a Big Ten environment. It was a Big Ten environment at Penn State. We know what a Big Ten game looks like, and it’s not sunny, West Coast weather.”
This week on the pregame shows
Fox’s “Big Noon Kickoff” will be in Ann Arbor for Wisconsin-Michigan — a homecoming for new “Big Noon” contributor Dave Portnoy.
ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be in Tuscaloosa for Vanderbilt-Alabama.
What I’m watching this weekend
I’m on the East Coast for a family wedding, so I will be watching Michigan State at Nebraska at 3 p.m. on FS1 rather than attending in-person.
A handful of others I’ll have my eye on Saturday:
» No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. on ESPN2
» Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan, 11 a.m. on Fox
» No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. on ABC
» Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. on NBC
» No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State, 6:30 p.m. on ABC