US stocks were choppy as the government shutdown held back key US data, with no weekly jobless claims released.
The Dollar eked out modest gains against G10 peers as the US government shutdown entered its second day.
T-notes were choppy as traders struggled to find a narrative amid the data blackout.
Oil was lower and downside accelerated through the US afternoon to settle at session troughs, albeit with a lack of headline drivers.
Looking ahead, highlights include Australian and Japanese S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final, Japanese Unemployment Rate and Jobs/Applicants Ratio, BoJ’s Ueda, and Supply from Australia.
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US TRADE
US stocks were choppy as the government shutdown held back key US data, with no weekly jobless claims released. Stocks closed the day in the green, paring some of the risk-off moves seen at the opening bell. The majority of sectors closed red with Energy, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples lagging, while Materials, Tech and Industrials outperformed.
SPX +0.06% at 6,715, NDX +0.37% at 24,893, DJI +0.17% at 46,520, RUT +0.66% at 2,458
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump’s administration is reportedly working with the pharma, AI, energy, shipbuilding, battery products and other sectors, according to Reuters sources.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Senate Minority Leader Schumer previously supported spending in the spring but has since changed stance due to polling, adding Republicans will not go back on spending cuts in the “one big beautiful bill”, fiscal health will be restored, and GDP could take a hit from the shutdown, according to Reuters.
US President Trump said Democrats want to give healthcare money to illegal aliens and open the borders to criminals of the world, calling it a deadly combination, via Truth Social.
US President Trump will meet with OMB Director Vought to determine which Democrat agencies he recommends cutting and whether those cuts will be temporary or permanent, according to Reuters.
The White House Press Secretary said they will look across the board when it comes to layoffs, via Fox News.
Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said inflation is running above target and trending higher, while payroll gains have declined and the labour market is fairly balanced but gradually slowing. She said the US is very close to maximum employment, appropriate to see more cooling, and forecast unemployment to rise slightly but not too far, citing fragility and tariff uncertainty as reasons for an insurance rate reduction. Logan noted demand remains resilient, with AI data centre investment offsetting weaker demand elsewhere, and said policy is moderately restrictive and appropriate for now. She stressed the need for caution on rate cuts, warning against easing too much and risking inflation expectations rising. Logan added that tariffs have contributed to higher goods prices with a more moderate impact than expected, but uncertainty prolongs inflation risks, according to Reuters.
Employees furloughed at the BLS told Senator Warren’s office the September labour data has been collected and is likely ready to be released, according to CNN, citing a Senate Banking Committee aide. Senator Warren called on the Trump administration to release the September jobs report on Friday despite the ongoing government shutdown, arguing the data has been processed and prepared, but the administration is choosing not to publish it, via CNN.
BoC Deputy Governor Mendes said the Bank is studying ways to improve its existing measures of core inflation, questioning whether preferred and alternative measures should all pre-exclude mortgage interest costs. He said improvements are only the first step, with the second involving exploration of new measures such as multivariate core trend inflation (MCT), which isolates persistent inflation pressures.
US President Trump said he is considering taxpayer rebates of USD 1,000–2,000 funded by tariff revenue, according to Reuters.
Google (GOOGL) is locating a new data centre in West Memphis, Arkansas, with a multi-billion USD investment, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
US Challenger Layoffs (Sep) 54,064 (Prev. 85,979)
US pending home sales fall 1% Y/Y in 4 weeks ending September, according to Redfin. Largest drop in nearly five months.
US Chicago Fed BLS Unemployment Rate, Final (Sep): 4.34% (Prelim. 4.32%)
TRADE/TARIFFS
The EU plans to hike steel import tariffs to 50%, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg.
EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said the current agreement with the US on trade has been respected, according to Reuters.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will hold a sideline meeting at the upcoming Asia summit, adding that the two respect each other, the next round of talks should result in a big breakthrough, and the current China trade truce will end on November 10, according to Reuters.
The US is considering easing tariffs on Scotch whisky, according to Bloomberg, citing sources.
US President Trump is reportedly planning to send billions in cash bailouts to farmers using taxpayer money, according to Politico. The plan would roll out the first tranche of payments in the coming weeks using billions from an internal USDA account, three people with direct knowledge said. Trump has also suggested using direct tariff revenue for payments, which could trigger a major fight in Congress, while the WSJ reported he is considering providing USD 10bln or more in aid to US farmers.
CENTRAL BANKS
The BoE DMP survey showed expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4% in the three months to September, while three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.9%, according to Reuters.
BoJ’s Uchida said the Tankan survey showed positive business sentiment as the US tariff outlook recedes and reiterated the BoJ will raise rates if the economic outlook is realised, according to Reuters.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he is halfway through Fed job interviews, expects the first round of Fed Chair interviews to be completed next week, and will give President Trump three to five strong candidates, according to Reuters.
Real-time indicators show a steady unemployment rate, and in the absence of the official figure, the Fed will make decisions with the information it has. Policymakers said they want to be careful about overly frontloading rate cuts, according to Reuters.
FX
The Dollar eked out modest gains against G10 peers as the US government shutdown entered its second day.
G10 FX moved lower on Thursday, led by NOK’s reversal of Wednesday’s outperformance, with AUD and GBP also experiencing modest pressure. NZD outperformed.
Performance in EMs was skewed to the downside due to the broad USD strength.
FIXED INCOME
T-notes were choppy as traders struggled to find a narrative amid the data blackout.
COMMODITIES
Oil was lower and downside accelerated through the US afternoon to settle at session troughs, albeit with a lack of headline driver.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said the country is doing everything possible to implement its compensation plan and sees oil output at 90mln tonnes in 2026, according to Reuters.
Nigeria’s daily oil output fell 15% during the Dangote refinery strike, according to Reuters.
Kazakhstan supplied 180k tonnes of oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in September, according to Kaztransoil cited by Reuters.
OPEC oil output rose by 330k BPD in September to 28.4mln BPD from August, according to a Reuters survey. Under the September OPEC+ agreement, five OPEC members — Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — were to raise output by 415k BPD before compensation cuts of 170k BPD for Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. The survey found the actual increase by the five was 347k BPD, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
US EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf w/e 53.0bcf vs. Exp. 68.0bcf (Prev. 75.0bcf)
GEOPOLITICAL
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Poland’s Interior Ministry said a border guard spotted a Russian ship yesterday near a gas pipeline, where it stopped for around 20 minutes, according to Reuters.
The Kremlin said tensions will be heightened if the US supplies Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles and warned Russia will give an adequate response if such deliveries occur, according to Reuters.
A Kremlin spokesperson said they are not nearer to peace after the Alaska summit, adding that the biggest factor complicating peace is Europe, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin said it is impossible to believe Russia will attack NATO, adding they will not do so for security reasons, but asked whether countermeasures will be taken against the militarisation of Europe. He said Russia’s response will be convincing, warned that weakness is unacceptable and that Russia should not be provoked, and noted that if others seek military competition, Russia has proved it can respond quickly. Putin added that Russia seeks a full-scale restoration of relations with the US and believes a mutually acceptable solution is possible, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin said all NATO countries are fighting against Russia in Ukraine by providing intelligence, weapons, and training, calling it a serious challenge to Russia. He claimed Russian forces are advancing across all fronts, creating a security zone, and now control two-thirds of Kupyansk, while entering Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. On the US, Putin said they are supplying Ukraine with as many weapons as required, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin, responding to US demands that India and China stop buying Russian energy, said the threat of higher tariffs on Russia’s trade partners would lead to higher prices and force the Fed to hold rates for longer. He noted Russia is the second-largest supplier of uranium to the US, earning around USD 800mln last year from the trade, which will exceed USD 1bln in 2025, and said Russia is ready to continue providing stable uranium supplies to the US, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin said the possible seizure of vessels would increase the risks of confrontations at sea. On potential US supplies of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, Putin said it would not change the battlefield situation but any such supply would be dangerous, damage relations, and escalate the conflict, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin joked that Russia does not have drones capable of flying to Lisbon, referencing drones in Denmark, and added, “I will not do this anymore, I promise”, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin said he is confident the global energy sector will operate sustainably, with demand set to rise, adding it is impossible to picture the global economy without Russian oil, prices would skyrocket, and whatever happens, demand will be met, according to Reuters.
The Trump administration’s plan to send long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine may not be viable because current inventories are committed to the US Navy and other uses, via Reuters citing officials and sources.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
French PM Lecornu is reportedly facing a lowered growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% to 1% and is due to submit his draft budget to the High Council of Public Finances this Thursday to meet constitutional deadlines, according to Les Echos, citing sources.
Italy lowered its 2025 budget deficit target to 3.0% of GDP from 3.3% in April and now sees GDP growth at 0.5% from 0.6% previously. The government sees 2026 GDP growth at 0.7% from 0.8% prior and confirmed its 2026 deficit-to-GDP target at 2.8%, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Swiss CPI YY (Sep) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%); MM (Sep) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
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