Each week, the Two-Minute Drill provides an in-depth breakdown on all the key matchups that will decide a winner in the Huskers’ game.
Here’s what Michigan State and Nebraska bring to the showdown.
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When Nebraska runs the ball
It’s been Emmett Johnson or nothing on the ground for NU facing power-league foes.
Nebraska against Michigan produced just 43 rushing yards — its fewest in a game in seven seasons — while still searching for a consistently effective RB2.
Michigan State just coughed up 289 rushing yards to USC, often biting too hard on pitch plays and losing the ball carrier in a crowd.
The Huskers have a feature back and enough creative play calling to move the ball on the ground, even if not in a traditional smashmouth style. Other than linebacker Jordan Hall (3.5 tackles for loss, forced fumble), MSU doesn’t wreck much havoc up front.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
When Nebraska throws the ball
Quarterback Dylan Raiola has topped 40 passes against Cincinnati and Michigan as the Huskers’ idea of offensive balance has been to spread the ball around a crowd of receivers.
The sophomore ranks fourth nationally in completion percentage (75.6%), usually content to connect on short or intermediate passes.
Michigan State has been gashed aerially by Boston College, Youngstown State and USC — against BC and the Trojans, the Sparty secondary has allowed seven scoring passes and no interceptions while the frontline netted minimal pressure.
MSU has been susceptible to pass-catching running backs — a strength of Johnson’s — as well as play action. It’s also adjusting to injuries at all three levels of the defense.
Raiola authored his first 300-yard passing game his last time out and could be in store for another even with a forecast calling for wind blowing at 20-30 mph.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
When Michigan State runs the ball
Aidan Chiles is among the top quarter of Big Ten QBs as a threat to keep the ball via a mix of designed runs and scrambles — his two rushing touchdowns are tied for most among Spartans.
Sophomore Makhi Frazier complements him as a long-striding 5-foot-10, 218-pound lead back who can burst through a crowd when an injury-thinned offensive line gives him space.
Nebraska couldn’t stop previous offenses led by mobile quarterbacks and spent the bye mulling tweaks to personnel groupings and defensive line schemes.
MSU will offer a variety of outside-zone and sweep looks along with what Chiles does. Correct gap assignments — and, more than that, physicality — is the challenge for Nebraska.
EDGE: MICHIGAN STATE
When Michigan State throws the ball
Chiles is more a natural passer than scrambler, completing better than 68% of his attempts and with nine touchdowns against one interception. The former top prospect will roll out looking to throw first with 6-foot-3 Nick Marsh and six-foot Omari Kelly his preferred targets.
Nebraska leads the country in fewest passing yards allowed per game (75.8) with a deep and talented secondary that may be without injured starting nickelback Malcolm Hartzog. Did you know: The Huskers are one of two FBS teams (Arizona) yet to allow a touchdown pass this fall.
It’s a strength-on-strength matchup even as MSU leans on an offensive line that just lost its left tackle for the year. The Huskers would be wise to watch for trick plays — Kelly has already attempted two passes as a behind-the-line runner.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
Special teams
Jacory Barney has emerged as a top-25 returner of punts, providing an explosive element there that Nebraska hasn’t enjoyed since De’Mornay Pierson-El a decade ago. Field-goal operations haven’t been a source of angst — Kyle Cunanan has made 6 of 7 kicks — and punter Archie Wilson is flipping fields.
Michigan State has essentially matched NU with a return threat (Kelly), reliable kicker (Martin Connington) and big-legged punter (Ryan Eckley).
This is a push, with the Huskers’ extra-aggressive return approach and familiarity with Memorial Stadium swirling winds providing a slim difference.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
Intangibles
Nebraska coach Matt Rhule told his team not to let one game beat it twice. The Michigan loss may have provided twice the motivation through a bye week of uber-physical practices and eye-opening game film.
A here-we-go-again vibe is hard to miss out of East Lansing with the Spartans resetting key roles during their idle week amid a slew of injuries.
Of course, the Huskers in 2023 learned circumstances aren’t everything — an MSU club with an interim coach and little to play for that November helped keep Nebraska out of a bowl game.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
Key matchup
Nebraska’s offensive line vs. Michigan State’s front seven
Husker blockers have some things to prove after allowing seven sacks and struggling to provide any daylight for a running attack against Michigan. Whether those issues were Wolverines-specific will play out Saturday as will potential personnel changes at the tackle spots.
Sparty has been burned by pitches and swing passes this year. Those plays won’t be as potent if MSU can gum up rushing lanes and force Raiola to be an every-down passer.
Two imperfect groups looking for answers — the Huskers might just have a few more potential solutions.
EDGE: NEBRASKA
Overall
Nebraska’s hunt for a red October begins with whether it can handle its business as a double-digit home favorite against another middle-class Big Ten brand. Watch for a big game from Raiola, though both lines of scrimmage will determine if this becomes an easy Husker win or a fourth-quarter tossup.
Big Red and Sparty have gotten together for some thrillers in recent years. This has the potential for some surprise intrigue between two building programs that each have an extra week to prepare.
PREDICTION: NEBRASKA 34, MICHIGAN STATE 24
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Evan Bland
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