The Oscars have always been Hollywood’s most glamorous therapy session, where the industry lays bare its collective psyche under the klieg lights of the red carpet. The upcoming awards season could cut a little deeper, reflecting an evolving world as they crystallize around a cultural split that’s dividing America. Will this be a showdown between muscular, action-drenched epics and whisper-quiet portraits of emotional fragility?
In one corner, flexing his auteur muscle, stands Paul Thomas Anderson with “One Battle After Another,” a sprawling, politically charged epic starring Leonardo DiCaprio that practically seethes with machismo. Anderson has never been shy about exploring masculinity, but this film marks his most unapologetically testosterone-fueled entry since Daniel Day-Lewis was drinking milkshakes and draining oil fields in “There Will Be Blood” (2007).
His latest is a blunt cinematic instrument — loud, loaded and bursting with carnage and ideological angst. If you read the tea leaves on social media, critics have already grouped it alongside past best picture victors such as Ridley Scott’s blood-soaked “Gladiator” (2000) and Martin Scorsese’s equally gory “The Departed” (2006).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have stories that are much more vulnerable, where the violence is emotional and inflicted in a different register. Chloé Zhao, returning to the Oscar fray with “Hamnet,” an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, traces the grief of Shakespeare and his wife after their son’s death. Following her triumph with the meditative “Nomadland” (2020), Zhao once again favors stirring excavation over spectacle, crafting something devastating.
The cultural conversation around masculinity has rarely been more charged. Nor is this some tired gender binary. The “masculine” front lines are being led in part by women. Kathryn Bigelow, the first woman to win best director for “The Hurt Locker” (2009), returns with political thriller “A House of Dynamite.” Bigelow’s gift is turning chaos into character, and she does it again here, showing the mayhem with the same urgency that fueled “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012).
Oscar winner James Cameron continues his pursuit of scale with “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the latest entry in his visually overwhelming sci-fi saga, while Joseph Kosinski follows “Top Gun: Maverick” with the summer hit “F1,” a pulse-pounding racing drama starring Brad Pitt. Visual and practical effects can be powerful tools for hypnotizing Academy voters.
Then there’s the artillery of the “sensitive” set. Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked: For Good,” the second chapter of his two-part Broadway adaptation, is sure to bring theatrical grandeur and vocal pyrotechnics by way of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Bill Condon’s “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” featuring Diego Luna, Tonatiuh and Jennifer Lopez, reimagines the queer literary classic with new musical resonance and Oscar-friendly set-pieces.
Global cinema adds options for both sides. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian thriller “The Secret Agent” is a taut exploration of surveillance and resistance. By contrast, from Norway is Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” a devastating family drama that carries a story of regret and forgiveness.
What makes this year’s dichotomy more than a genre trend is how it reflects the larger cultural moment. In an era when masculinity feels increasingly brittle and empathy is under attack, the best picture race is often a referendum on the direction of global politics. What kind of stories does Hollywood want to honor?
A win for Anderson’s militia melodrama or Cameron’s tech-powered epic would suggest the Oscars are leaning toward films that define themselves by their size, noise and ambition. A win for Zhao’s intimate period piece or a musical tearjerker would imply something else entirely: an embrace of emotional truth, delicacy and narratives unafraid to grapple with another kind of psychic pain.
The Academy could go either way, depending on where the world sits when voters cast their ballots. They’ve crowned epics and smashes like “Oppenheimer” (2023) one year and rewarded quiet miracles like Siân Heder’s “CODA” (2021) another. The Oscars wrestle, in real time, with their own values, and even look beyond the movies themselves.
The Academy Awards hold a mirror up to society. What do we see when we look into it?
This week’s updated Oscar predictions are below.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)
Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Oct. 2, 2025)
Best Picture
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon) ***
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
William H. Macy, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) ***
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Adapted Screenplay
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“No Other Choice” (Neon) — Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Lee Ja-hye, Don McKellar
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) — Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Susanne Scheel
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Cinematography
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Film Editing
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Original Score
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
Original Song
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Zoo” from “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“The Eyes of Ghana” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)
Top 4 projected Oscar leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Wicked: For Good” (12); “Hamnet” and “Sinners” (11); “Sentimental Value” (6)
Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (28); Netflix (18); Neon (17); Focus Features (14)