You know who has two thumbs and is happy the first month of the season is done? This guy. I came out of the gate remarkably hot with stellar showings in Week 1 and Week 2, but the final two weeks brought us back to a more even record, particularly with my Locks of the Week.
Am I worried? Not really, as there have been some horrendous beats. Water will find its level, and we’ll be cashing in on a more consistent basis in no time, preferably starting with Week 5.
Among my locks of the week, we go international with a pick in the London game on Sunday, where Dillon Gabriel is set to make his NFL debut for the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, I have picks in two prime-time games, including Monday night’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Teams on the bye in Week 5: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh
2025 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 10-10-0
ATS: 28-36-0
ML: 41-22-1
NFL odds via DraftKings (unless otherwise noted). Bet NFL Week 5 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. Click here to get started.
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (in London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network | Fubo, try for free)
Welcome to the NFL, Dillon Gabriel! As a congratulatory gift for climbing up Cleveland’s depth chart, you get to face the Brian Flores-led Vikings defense! Sheesh. Not only will Gabriel face one of the toughest defenses in the league, but he will also be the first quarterback to make his first start outside of the United States.
What does that mean? Who knows, but it’s another layer he’ll have to navigate. Meanwhile, the Vikings are already acclimated after playing Week 4 in Dublin, so they won’t have to travel as much as Cleveland. Simply looking at the defensive matchup, however, this is daunting for Gabriel. Minnesota has the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL entering Week 5 and is tied for the fifth-most sacks in the league. Even with the Browns defense likely giving the Vikings offense fits, I don’t think Gabriel will be able to keep this within the number.
Projected score: Vikings 23, Browns 17
The pick: Vikings -4.5
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
The Bengals are lost offensively. Yes, Jake Browning lining up under center has dramatically lowered the ceiling of the unit following Joe Burrow’s turf toe injury, but their issues go beyond that. They commit silly penalties, can’t block and have no semblance of a consistent running game.
And that unit is supposed to keep this close with the Lions, who lead the NFL with 34.3 points per game this season? Aidan Hutchinson should have a field day attacking this offensive line, and the Lions offense should continue to hum against a defense that just allowed Bo Nix to light them up for three total touchdowns Monday night.
Since the start of last season, the Lions have covered in 75% of their games, which is tied with the Chargers for the best cover percentage in the NFL. I expect that to continue here, despite the double-digit spread.
Projected score: Lions 33, Bengals 17
The pick: Lions -10.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
This is a bad spot for the Niners, who continue to deal with a mountain of injuries. Conversely, the Rams are relatively healthy coming into Week 5, and look like the more polished team. Under center, Matthew Stafford ranks top five in the NFL this season in yards per attempt (8.2), passing yards (1,114), and passing touchdowns (eight). Puka Nacua has been his go-to target, as the Rams wideout went bonkers over the first month and currently leads the NFL in receiving yards.
As for the defense, they’ve been able to get after the quarterback, tallying 14 sacks, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Sure, Kyle Shanahan has a winning record (10-7) against Sean McVay in their coaching careers, but the Rams head coach is currently riding a three-game win streak against him. L.A. has also been very favorable to bettors when facing divisional opponents, owning a 10-3-1 ATS record against the NFC West over the past 14 contests.
Projected score: Rams 28, 49ers 20
The pick: Rams -7.5
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
The Dolphins offense took a major hit with Tyreek Hill suffering a devastating knee injury that ends his season. While that lowers their ceiling for the rest of the season, they should be fine in this matchup against the Panthers, who are averaging just 18.8 points per game through the first month.
The Dolphins defense doesn’t exactly instill the most confidence, but I’m not sure Carolina can adequately exploit their deficiencies. Carolina doesn’t possess much of a threat in terms of rushing the passer, either (just two sacks through four games), so Tua Tagovailoa should have a relatively clean pocket to work through.
Beyond the passing attack, I view this as a smash spot for Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, who will face a Panthers run defense surrendering 4.9 yards per carry (fourth-highest in the NFL). Miami suddenly wins two in a row.
Projected score: Dolphins 23, Panthers 20
The pick: Dolphins +1.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN | Fubo, try for free)
The Chiefs finally looked like themselves Sunday in dominating the Ravens, but I still think this offense will go through ups and downs. Baltimore’s defense was in shambles heading into that matchup, and K.C. will now face a much tougher unit in the Jaguars, who have recorded a league-leading 13 takeaways so far this season. Jacksonville is also allowing just 18.0 points per game, which is top-five in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Jags offense is still finding its way — especially through the air with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter not exactly lighting it up after four weeks — but it can run the ball. Jacksonville is third in the NFL in rushing yards per game, which is where it could exploit a poor Chiefs run defense (127.0 yards per game allowed).
The Jaguars’ defense and rushing attack will keep them around in this game, so I’ll gladly take the field goal plus the hook.
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 21
The pick: Jaguars +3.5
Odds via BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first football wager loses.
Rest of the bunch
Raiders at Colts
Projected score: Colts 28, Raiders 20
The pick: Colts -6.5
Giants at Saints
Projected score: Saints 23, Giants 20
The pick: Saints -1.5
Cowboys at Jets
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Jets 23
The pick: Cowboys -2.5
Broncos at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 27, Broncos 21
The pick: Eagles -3.5
Texans at Ravens
Projected score: Texans 24, Ravens 20
The pick: Texans -1.5
Titans at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 28, Titans 17
The pick: Cardinals -7.5
Buccaneers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 24, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Buccaneers +3.5
Commanders at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 27, Commanders 23
The pick: Chargers -2.5