FOXBOROUGH – The Bills opened as 7.5 point favorites for Sunday night’s battle with the Patriots.
If there was ever a time for the Patriots to pull a rabbit out of the hat to pull of an upset, it’s now.
As it so happens, they just might have one.
As a head coach, Mike Vrabel is one of the best upset-makers in the league. He enjoys being the underdog. He loves it when the odds are stacked against his team.
Add it being a primetime game, and it’s right in Vrabel’s wheelhouse for success.
During his six years coaching in Tennessee, Vrabel’s Titans won quite a few games they weren’t supposed to win.
His teams thrived as the underdog. The greater the odds against, the more likely they were to pull off the upset.
Of course, everyone in New England knows Vrabel’s Titans beat the Tom Brady-led Patriots in the 2019 wild card round of the playoffs. The Patriots were prohibitive favorites. It proved to be Brady’s last game with the six-time Super Bowl champs.
After that game, the Titans went on to upset Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, before losing in the AFC Championship game.
Over the years, Vrabel also had Patrick Mahomes’ number, beating the Chiefs twice during the regular season (2019, 2021). Ditto the Josh Allen-led Bills in 2020.
So there’s some history of not only knocking out the big guns, but taking down Buffalo.
All told, Vrabel had a winning record as an underdog while coaching Tennessee. He had one of the highest percentages of any NFL coach when his team wasn’t expected to win. Currently, his 32-25-2 (55.9%) mark in games where his team is the underdog has him he’s sixth among current NFL coaches.
Maybe it’s apples to oranges trying to compare the Titans with the 2025 Patriots, but the one constant is Vrabel.
“He gives you a true advantage on the sideline,” former Patriot Logan Ryan, who played for Vrabel in Tennessee, recently told MassLive. “Mike can coach. He really knows how to coach, especially down the stretch.”
This season, the Patriots were the favorites in three of the first four games. The one game they weren’t?
Miami.
Right on cue, the Patriots beat the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, a venue they hadn’t won since 2019.
Can they do the same in Buffalo at Highmark Stadium, in what’s expected to be the final game the Patriots play there head of the Bills moving to a new stadium?
While it’s not out of the realm, especially in wake of the Patriots blowout win over Carolina, it remains a tall order.
Vrabel has already labeled it a measuring stick game.
“I think it’s important that we can take the next step, show that we are ready and that maybe some of our identity has a chance to let itself out on Sunday night,” Vrabel said Wednesday. “But it’ll be a great challenge. It’ll be a challenge to even just prepare today, get going and focus on all those things that are going to help us in the road environment.”
As Vrabel pointed out, the Bills haven’t lost at home in forever. But that doesn’t mean the Patriots don’t believe they can win, and take down the Bills.
Safety JayLinn Hawkins has only been coached by Vrabel as a Patriot this season.
He termed Vrabel’s success as an underdog as being “crazy.”
And yet, he thinks he has a pretty good beat on why Vrabel’s teams have pulled off so many upsets.
“One thing I can say, being present every day, is how he pushes us. And the way he holds us accountable,” Hawkins said Wednesday. “He always pushes us for more despite a win, despite how good you play,
“In order to get to where we want to get to, it’s endless growth. I think that’s his mindset. We have endless growth within our team, and he sees it. He pushes us to keep getting better.”
Vrabel is on record as saying he thinks this team can beat anybody if they “do things the right way” and play to their identity.
His players have often echoed those words.
“Having a coach that believes in us like that makes you want to go harder for him,” Hawkins said. “Everybody in this building is in it together. And if it starts with the head man. If he believes, it’s only right for us to believe. I mean, we believe, but it feels good to have the coach behind you. It hits another level.”
If anyone can pull a rabbit out of a hat, it’s Vrabel.