Every week this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett is giving out early ATS picks for every NFL game.
We’re already at the juncture where a few teams are on bye every weekend. This week, it’s the Falcons, Bears, Packers and Steelers who are idle.
The highlights of Week 5 include 49ers-Rams on Thursday Night Football, another early Sunday morning kickoff (Minnesota vs. Cleveland), a loaded late-afternoon window (Bucs-Seahawks and Commanders-Chargers are both fascinating) and finally, Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 31-33
After a 7-9 showing in Week 1, our early ATS picks went 9-7 in Week 2 and 9-7 in Week 3.
Unfortunately, we came back down to earth in Week 4 with a 6-10 showing (I was surprised as anyone by both the Giants upsetting the Chargers and the Cowboys tying the Packers, among other results last weekend).
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
49ers at Rams (7) — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Rams -7
How many teams are clearly better than the Rams right now? If not for a shocking collapse after a great start in Philly in Week 3, LA would be undefeated, and its resume would include the best win in the NFL.
As high as I am on Matthew Stafford and the Rams right now, though, are we sure it’s a good idea to trust them to cover the big spread?
If the Niners were just a bit healthier, I’d like them to find a way to cover. But they will be without starting QB Brock Purdy, their top three wide receivers (Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall), tight end George Kittle and defensive end Nick Bosa.
On the road against a good Rams team, that’s simply too much for the 49ers — or anyone, really — to overcome.
Vikings (-4.5) at* Browns — 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
Pick: Browns +4.5
Expect another close game featuring the Vikings in action across the pond. After struggling against the Steelers last Sunday in Dublin, I think the Vikings defense will dominate the Browns offense in Dillon Gabriel’s NFL debut. At the same time, Cleveland is going to be a hard team for Carson Wentz to move the ball on.
So, I’m going assuming the Browns don’t self-destruct with turnovers, I’ll take them to cover in a hideous low-scoring slog.
*Note: Vikings-Browns is taking place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London
Raiders at Colts (-7) — 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Colts -7
Geno Smith is coming off his worst performance of the season (14-of-21 passing for just 117 yards, with two TDs and three interceptions) against Chicago last Sunday. After a strong performance in Week 1, Smith has had two rough outings in the last three weeks.
Until I see better play from the Raiders’ veteran QB, I’m going to have a hard time trusting this team, especially on the road against good competition.
Giants at Saints (-1.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Giants +1.5
I rarely say this about NFL games, but I think the wrong team is currently favored in this matchup. Even before last week’s upset of the Chargers, I’d have expected the NYG D-line to have its way with Spencer Rattler and the Saints.
But after New York beat the Chargers last weekend, it wouldn’t shock me if Brian Daboll’s team beat New Orleans by a touchdown in its first game without star WR Malik Nabers.
Broncos at Eagles (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Eagles -3.5
I expect Denver to keep this game close. In fact, I liked the underdogs on the spread at +4.5 But I trust Philadelphia to make just enough plays to win — and cover at -3.5 — at home against a Broncos offense that has mostly struggled outside of last Monday’s win over the Bengals.
The Eagles are yet to turn in a dominant performance for 60 minutes. Sill, I’m not convinced that the struggling Bo Nix will be able to make enough plays to beat a team that has already taken down Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Jets — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Cowboys -2.5
The Cowboys have problems all over the defensive side of the football, but their biggest issue has to be their pass defense. Fortunately for Dallas, Justin Fields and the Jets appear unlikely to take advantage of the Dallas defensive backs. On the other side of the ball, we’ve seen little reason to trust the New York defense against a Dallas offense coming off an excellent performance against the Packers
Dolphins (-1.5) at Panthers — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Dolphins -1.5
Miami (sans Tyreek Hill) vs. Carolina, which coming off an embarrassing loss to the Patriots, is a “someone has to win” kind of contest.
The Panthers are making too many mistakes, and dealing with too many injuries, for me to trust them, even against the 1-3 Dolphins.
Texans (-1.5) at Ravens — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Texans -1.5
The line here tells you that we’re probably going to see Cooper Rush under center for the Ravens. The Houston D is good enough to slow down Baltimore without Lamar Jackson, and I also think that the Texans will be able to run the ball successfully on a reeling Ravens D that will be without several starters.
Titans at Cardinals (-7.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Cardinals -7.5
The Titans lost by just eight points on the road in Week 1 in Cam Ward’s NFL debut. But they’re trending in the wrong direction, with a 14-point loss to the Rams in Week 2, a 21-point loss to the Colts in Week 3 and a 26-point loss to the Texans in Week 4.
Coming off a mini-bye after last week’s close loss to Seattle on TNF, I like Arizona to get right with a comfortable win at home.
Buccaneers at Seahawks (-3.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Buccaneers +3.5
Tampa Bay nearly came all the way back after a bad start vs. the Eagles, but dropped to 3-1 after its rally fell just short. With Mike Evans out and Bucky Irving questionable, points are going to be hard to come by against the Seahawks’ stingy defense.
Still, I like Tampa to find a way to cover at +3.5 in a low-scoring game. Remember, the Seahawks dominated Arizona for three-plus quarters last week, then needed a game-winning drive in the final minute.
In cutting a 21-3 Eagles lead to 31-25 last Sunday, Tampa showed that it should not be counted out, no matter what the score is.
Commanders at Chargers (-2.5) — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Commanders +2.5
The Chargers officially have an O-line problem. No, they won’t face many pass rushes like New York’s the rest of this year, but taking on Washington without either of its starting tackles will be a massive challenge for L.A. Remember, Rashawn Slater is out for the year, and Joe Alt is currently listed as doubtful for this game.
Washington has been up-and-down so far, but it should get a big boost from Jayden Daniels’ return from an injury that sidelined him the last two weeks.
Three of the Chargers’ first four games this year were decided by six points or less, and this has the makings of another contest that will come down to the wire.
Lions (-10.5) at Bengals — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Lions -10.5
Detroit -10.5 is one of my favorite ATS picks of the weekend, as I would probably play the Lions all the way up to -13.5. Behind a struggling O-line and without a running game, Bengals QB Jake Browning has looked totally overwhelmed the last two weeks.
I’m counting on more of the same on Sunday against a formidable Lions squad that has outscored its last three opponents 124-61 after a season-opening loss to Green Bay in Week 1.
Patriots at Bills (-8.5) — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Pick: Patriots +8.5
None of the Bills’ last three wins were ever truly in doubt, but they failed to cover the massive spread against either the Dolphins in Week 3 or the Saints in Week 4.
I don’t give the Patriots a real chance to win this game, but I think Drake Maye and Co. will be able to move the ball. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the underdogs cover on the road, even if it takes a late rally after a strong start by the current Super Bowl favorites.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Jaguars — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN)
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Not to overreact or anything, but did Xavier Worthy just cure all of the Chiefs’ ills??
Kansas City’s offense looked much better in Week 4 than it did in Weeks 1-3. It’s hard to believe that it was a coincidence that this unit’s best showing of the year came in Worthy’s first full game.
His speed opens things up for the rest of this offense. His presence should go a long way in keeping the Chiefs afloat offensively until Rashee Rice returns in a few weeks.
The Jags deserve plenty of love for their 3-1 start, which includes a road win over Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Still, I’m skeptical of their chances against Kansas City, especially given Trevor Lawrence’s struggles so far this year (albeit amid a strong start by his team). Yes, it’s early, but he is averaging career-worst numbers in several categories, including yards per attempt (5.9), completion percentage (58.3), interception rate (2.8) and passing success rate (41.5).
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