By Economic Development Minister,Hannah Esnouf

Copyright jerseyeveningpost

THE government needs to work towards a higher population target which can sustain the Island’s needs rather than thinking in terms of restricting numbers, the Chamber of Commerce chief executive has said.

Speaking at an All Island Media event on population, Murray Norton said that Jersey needed a population of around 116,000 to 118,000 by 2040 and the government should be working towards that figure.

The Question-Time-style event also saw discussions around an underwater tunnel be revisited – having been a popular talking point for a number of years.

Mr Norton was joined on the panel by Economic Development Minister Kirsten Morel, Social Security Minister Lyndsay Feltham and Matt Falla, a director at Evelyn Partners and founder of Man Club which examined Jersey’s population challenges, the government’s response, and the future vision for the island’s economy.

Around 100 Islanders, including students, current and former politicians, economy and recruitment experts, and newcomers to the Island, gave their thoughts to the discussion titled ‘Population… open the doors or pull up the drawbridge?’ which was chaired by chaired by Bailiwick Express and Connect editor Fiona Potigny.

Mr Norton spoke at length about the importance of Jersey’s Government having a “North Star” – a clear, long-term goal or vision to guide future planning for the Island.

Mr Norton added: “If that’s what we need to be sustainable, let’s have the honest conversation. That’s the population we need by 2040, so how are we going to get there?”

Tunnel Talks

An audience member then argued that building a privately-funded undersea tunnel connecting Jersey to France would some of the island’s future population, freight, and supply chain challenges.

The idea has caught the attention of many entrepreneurs and politicians in the past. Just last year, Guernsey entrepreneur Martyn Dorey spoke to present his plans for an underground tunnel running from Guernsey to Jersey and then on to France.

He likened the move to how a tunnel had been built to connect the Faroe Islands and said a similar project could be replicated in the Channel Islands.

Many on Thursday’s panel were in agreement about the potential of a fixed link with the French border, and referenced similar infrastructure around the world such as those planned around the Scottish Highlands.

Deputy Morel acknowledged that the conversation about a tunnel had been “knocked on the head” by the current government but argued it should be seriously considered.

“[A tunnel] is an entirely feasible and possible way forward,” he said.

But, Deputy Lindsay Feltham was cautious about the idea and argued that Jersey should focus on delivering current infrastructure projects like the new hospital and much-needed improvements to the Island’s drainage network.

She also raised questions about the policy implications, such as the impact on the Common Travel Area and tax residency.

The Faroe Islands have four sub-sea tunnels connecting the 18-island archipelago. The Eysturoyartunnil undersea tunnel was opened in December 2020, while the second undersea tunnel, the Sandoyartunnil, opened in December 2023. The network spans 33,3 km in total.

There are also plans recently unveiled in Scotland to replace ferry routes with undersea tunnels connecting five islands, including Shetland and Orkney, in the Scottish Highlands.

Low Birth Rates

Although much political discourse often surrounds the Island’s population level and the need to keep it under control, Jersey is grappling with record low birth rates.

Just 151 births were recorded on the Island in the first three months of this year – 13% lower than the those recorded in the same period of 2024.

In contrast, 256 deaths were recorded in the first quarter of this year – an increase of 15% on the previous year.

It is the third consecutive year that Jersey has seen more deaths than births.

But panel members were skeptical about the effectiveness of any government policies to increase birth rates, something which other developed nations struggling with the issue have done in the past.

Arguing for the importance of making becoming a parent easier rather than incentivising people to have children, Deputy Morel said Islanders must “stop pretending [government] can control birth rates”.

Mr Norton pointed to issues such as the expense of raising children in Jersey as a potential barrier to parents having more than one child or not working, and the knock-on economic impact.

It comes after a proposition of 15 additional free hours a term for all two to three-year-olds in Jersey was unveiled in the 2026 Budget this week. If approved, it will start in January at the earliest.

Lastly, the Social Security Minister was also asked whether she would be in favour of raising the state pension age.

While acknowledging the need to plan for the ageing demographic, Deputy Feltham instead suggested the need for individual choice for Islanders that reach pension age.

“We know that [working later in life] is good for mental health. We know it’s good for physical health, and that is really good to encourage, but I don’t think we should integrate that with changing [the pension age],” she said.

The minister also said the Island’s pension funds are “in an extremely healthy position” and better than other countries.