The first factor is Markey’s age, which will be 80 next year and would be 86 at the end of another term. The second is Moulton’s vast and well-documented ambition.
Moulton has not yet officially announced his candidacy, and there’s talk the field may also include Representative Ayanna Pressley. Alex Rikleen, a political newcomer, is already in the race. But the buzz has been all about Moulton’s chances against Markey, who first went to Congress in 1976 and has been in the Senate since 2013.
Moulton does not have a famous name like Kennedy, which could be a plus. Kennedy struggled with his Camelot connection. While he tried not to play it up, he could not divorce himself from his famous family. Indeed, Markey wouldn’t let him, turning the wealth and privilege that went with the Kennedy name into a campaign issue. But Kennedy’s real problem, according to one consultant with insight into the internal dynamics of that campaign, was that from the start, he lacked the requisite “fire in the belly.”
Kennedy wrongly believed Markey would drop out, rather than face a challenger, and when that didn’t happen, he wasn’t ready or willing to strongly differentiate himself from his opponent. While Kennedy’s overall message was generational change, he did not hammer at the 35-year age difference between him and the incumbent.
Meanwhile, Markey, who turned 74 during that contest, stole the progressive youth vote by emphasizing causes like the Green New Deal, using social media with Gen-Z skill, and capturing what turned out to be a critical endorsement from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
If Moulton enters the race, he won’t lack fire in the belly or the will to hold his rival’s feet to the fire. Moulton was a political newcomer when he decided to challenge Representative John Tierney, a nine-term incumbent, in the Democratic primary in 2014. According to a case study of that campaign by New America, Tierney enjoyed a 75 percent favorability rating at the start of the race and led Moulton, then a 35-year-old Iraq War veteran with no political experience, by more than 50 points.
Moulton’s 55 to 40 percent victory is attributed to sheer tenacity, savvy use of social media, and hard-hitting paid advertising. In one ad, which called out Tierney for passing only one bill in 18 years, paying thousands in campaign violation fines, and missing votes in Congress, Moulton appeared at the end to say, “I approve this message because of instead of reelecting more of the same, I’m a Democrat for real change.”
Moulton has reveled in his outsider status ever since. He tried to keep Nancy Pelosi from returning as House speaker after the 2018 election, briefly ran for president in 2020, and was one of the first Democrats to publicly call for then-President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, after his disastrous debate performance. He also greatly irritated fellow Democrats when he spoke out against the party’s embrace of transgender athletes following the 2024 presidential contest.
That puts Moulton on the wrong side of progressives, which could be a problem in a Democratic primary. Still, the political landscape is shifting, even in Massachusetts, and a candidate perceived to be more moderate could attract unenrolled or independent voters, who can vote in a Democratic primary.
“This will be his [Markey’s] toughest race, if Moulton does it,” said a Markey supporter who goes back with him to his first campaign for Congress. “Age is a factor, because of Biden.”
But age is also a factor because of Markey. Voters may be ready to say, “Thank you for your service. Now it’s time for a change.”
By Carine Hajjar
In Markey’s looming Senate reelection bid, all the buzz has been about what other Massachusetts Democrats might try to unseat the Senate vet.
But what about a Republican?
Don’t scoff so soon. Sure, anyone with an R next to their name is going to face an uphill battle in this deep blue state. But they also have an edge this cycle, if they succeed at making the case: In a Senate controlled by Republicans, wouldn’t it help to have one in Congress?
Especially a moderate like John Deaton. Yup, you heard it here first in Right, Left, Center: John Deaton is “seriously considering” running for Markey’s seat, according to the man himself. On Tuesday, Deaton told me he’s in the process of interviewing potential campaign employees, but will only enter the race if “I truly believe there’s a real path to victory.” That means avoiding an overly contested primary, being more confident in his fund-raising, and having the right people on his team.
Deaton isn’t your average Republican. The Marine veteran, lawyer, and cryptocurrency advocate is a vocal critic of Donald Trump, a firm supporter of abortion, and pro-capitalist without ignoring the fact that the system isn’t helping everyone.
And now he has experience, too.
In 2024, he ran as a rookie Republican against Senator Elizabeth Warren, losing during a cycle that saw Republicans claw back control of the chamber for the first time since 2021. Massachusetts voters sure weren’t going to contribute to the flip — especially with Trump running for the White House at the same time. (Deaton won 40 percent of the vote.)
Deaton believes that running under GOP control of the Senate would give a Republican senator from Massachusetts more leverage to fight for state priorities. “Take the infrastructure bill that Elizabeth Warren and Markey voted for under Biden — it had $110 billion for bridges across America,” he said, referring to President Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. “Not $1 went to Massachusetts. From that, not $1 went to the two bridges that are absolutely functionally obsolete on the Cape.”
“Warren and Markey are going to do whatever the Democratic leadership says,” he told me. “I will give an independent voice to Massachusetts as a Republican.”
Even though Deaton didn’t prevail in 2024, he did the state a service by asking tough questions. From calling out Warren’s activist record on immigration to her high-spending approach to spurring housing, Deaton held the longtime Senator to account. Warren allies resorted to misleading voters that the decidedly moderate Deaton was a Trump acolyte.
And even though his possible candidacy would face steep odds in this liberal state, it’s commendable that he’s considering offering voters another option. “It’s important that voters have choice,” MassGOP chairwoman Amy Carnevale told me. “And as former Governor Baker used to always say, it’s important to have two teams on the field. And right now in Massachusetts, we just have the Democrats, largely on the field and certainly at the federal level.”
Should he enter the race, Deaton will face yet another difficult slog. But even if he doesn’t win, he would do Massachusetts voters a favor by showing them that smart ideas exist on both sides of the aisle – and that the Massachusetts GOP is going to show up for every big race. That’s how parties grow.
This column first appeared inRight, Left, and Center, Globe Opinion’s free weekly newsletter about local and national politics. If you’d like to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign uphere.